WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Don't remember ever seeing a low track as due north as what's shown on the 18z. Probably has happened, just don't remember it. I guess we would need it to strengthen more slowly, gain some longitude first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Don't remember ever seeing a low track as due north as what's shown on the 18z. Probably has happened, just don't remember it. I guess we would need it to strengthen more slowly, gain some longitude first. What the 18z does not have that I can see is a strong LP in the 50/50 position or some other strong block feature. But the cut almost due north looks weird...but so did the bowling ball on Euro...wonder how the ensembles look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I like how the pattern is evolving here. True threat post Christmas or not, the lack of projected ridging or zonal flow in the east + signs of ridging out west in mid-long range + CFS looking positive = interesting times ahead for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 .wonder how the ensembles look 18z ensemble mean is quite similar to the 12z Euro ensemble mean. Bad news is the 500mb vort appears to track about right overhead. So, it cuts west of the Apps and then reforms off ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I said this 4 days ago in response to Wes and I still feel the same way. Every day that goes by only adds to my cautious confidence. I've liked this window since it showed up post 300hrs on the gfs. And the main reason I've liked it is because it's honestly the first real chance at getting anything measurable and the signal for a storm was logical. I still feel good with a 60% chance @ a 1" storm in some form or another (.75" of snow and .25" of ice counts too..lol). Nothing has come up to change my mind yet. I think Wes responded to the quoted post at the chance being .6% or something like that but I have a liberating non-red tag so I can say whatever I want. LOL I was out playing hookie today and goofing off so I haven't looked at much until just now. Everything has been recapped pretty well in the thread already. Now that we're getting inside of fantasy land it's ok to start paying attention to the medium sized details a little closer (if that makes any sense). Storm track unfortunately continues to favor west and north of us. Yea, it can change but a heck of a lot of things would have to go right for that to happen. If it starts trending that way then it's worth discussing more but not right now imo. I have my eyes on the incoming cold airmass. If we're going to get a track to the west we need to root and root hard for the airmass to be pretty deep because the storm is going to butt heads with it and eventually win. The deeper the cold the better chance at a longer duration of snow on the front (stating obvious). The other details would be how the models are resolving the high. We really need a position leading up that supports a decent n-ne surface flow. Get too much of an east component and it's a lot easier to lose the cold air at and just above the surface. I got my eyes on that but we're still too far out to make any calls. It sure is looking like someone is going to get a good hit out of this too. My hunch at a decent strength storm at long leads is proving to be a good hunch but that is part luck of course. We could get lucky with a west track if it's far enough west and we have a really strong high sliding east. A shield of precip could easily overrun with "ok" thermal profiles to get mostly snow before the warm air works in as the precip cuts off. This isn't a common setup but it's possible anyways. All the lr stuff shows no torches either. 12 & 18z gfs are showing crappy rainers post xmas but there is good cold before and after. Yea, I know...cold dry/warm wet but still. Active pattern and *some* cold air around. Can we honestly expect much more than that even if the storm track is looking notsogreat? Sneaky storms can be the best kind. All kinds of despair wiped out in an instant. When we aren't even looking the gods finally smile on us. Let's just root like heck for overperforming cold and that the storm actually happens in some fashion. Even if the track sucks. Something has to give around here. It's becoming a borderline voodoo hex or something. I like your attitude Mr. Chill. Keep up the good work and your posts. Can you tell me the dynamics involved in a weakening primary storm system and its redevelopment off the coast? Is it really a redevelopment or is the storm just shunted to the coast because of a strong block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z ensemble mean is quite similar to the 12z Euro ensemble mean. Bad news is the 500mb vort appears to track about right overhead. So, it cuts west of the Apps and then reforms off ACY. Thank you. Better than the OP for sure and that is what you'd maybe expect considering the setup as depicted right now. The direct north track into the high seems wrong but maybe I just want to not believe it. a little snow followed by ice would be nice if the CAD can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I like your attitude Mr. Chill. Keep up the good work and your posts. Can you tell me the dynamics involved in a weakening primary storm system and its redevelopment off the coast? Is it really a redevelopment or is the storm just shunted to the coast because of a strong block? Most times it's a redevelopment. Cold-core lows (e.g. not tropical/hurricane) form via baroclinic processes, and are fueled by temperature gradients. The temperature gradient is sharper near the land/water boundary which causes cyclogensis to occur near/on that baroclinic zone. A met can probably give you more detail if you'd like, but that's the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 https://www.facebook...458425827538014 Dt still honking.......I thought it was a pretty good read regardless I thought it was good too and easy to understand. I am just hoping the rex block actually forms. It is easy to see how this whole thing comes together or just falls apart based on that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Until I see a sustained +PNA I am not going with anything but cutters. Inland runner is too optimistic IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 At this pt getting precip of note would be a win. This storm initially looked wet and we are getting screwed like usual. Running out of time now. Today, 12/17 was to be the turning point about 10 days ago and then gradually the turn moved forward and now it just after Christmas-maybe. 10-15 days away can get ugly quick, if we get to 12/27 and it's now supposed to turn 1/5 then we are cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Most times it's a redevelopment. Cold-core lows (e.g. not tropical/hurricane) form via baroclinic processes, and are fueled by temperature gradients. The temperature gradient is sharper near the land/water boundary which causes cyclogensis to occur near/on that baroclinic zone. A met can probably give you more detail if you'd like, but that's the basics. Elevation of the landmass affects reformation too. The apps cause primary circulations to weaken, and the energy then transfers to the natural coastal front, and it generally happens quicker if the coastal front has a sharp thermal gradient. So the colder the air mass over the land the better for getting that reformation going since the ocean is always generally warmer than the land mass during winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man 00z GFS setup @ 162 hrs looks amazing..Just need the 50/50 to hold a bit longer and this could be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS big rainstorm...yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 zwyts, Maybe verbatim, but its still something to track. Man that trough in Texas is digging extremely deep, The jet stream looks crazy....There will be NO moisture problem with this system, Jeezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'd like to see the HP a bit farther SE, but this thing may clsoe off and bowl its way east...It just can't ride into that HP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 0z GFS has the storm further south and east right up until 192 hours. We should have a much better idea of where the GFS really wants to take this thing tomorrow when it's inside the 192 hour limit of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Why we analyzing storm 10 days away? That question only gets asked when the solution shows rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man 00z GFS setup @ 162 hrs looks amazing..Just need the 50/50 to hold a bit longer and this could be a doozy. Before truncation at 192 it looks like gold. Great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'd like to see the HP a bit farther SE, but this thing may clsoe off and bowl its way east...It just can't ride into that HP... the problem is that once the storm gets its act together, there is ridging over the Northeast so the storm cuts to our west...there is nothing to force it to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS big rainstorm...yay Actually looks like a big time winter storm pre truncation... Might have to ride the DT train on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Before truncation at 192 it looks like gold. Great sign. not really...there is a ridge over the east extending up to the lakes...that is a pretty bad setup in advance of a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Actually looks like a big time winter storm pre truncation... Might have to ride the DT train on this one DT could be right...maybe there will be a winter storm...but I'm not sure why a ridge in the east is a good thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 not really...there is a ridge over the east extending up to the lakes...that is a pretty bad setup in advance of a storm... Just looking at the jet stream at 192 it would argue the storm should have a significant easterly component. I don't see it cutting through that strong west to east jet stream without a battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Running out of time now. Today, 12/17 was to be the turning point about 10 days ago and then gradually the turn moved forward and now it just after Christmas-maybe. 10-15 days away can get ugly quick, if we get to 12/27 and it's now supposed to turn 1/5 then we are cooked. maybe the storm after next week (the post-chill event?) will do it. right now it just shears out to the south.. overrunning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 DT could be right...maybe there will be a winter storm...but I'm not sure why a ridge in the east is a good thing.. bad model reading by people thinking the gfs looks good pre truncation or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z Euro looks like dog crap this morning too. Even took away any chance of seeing some upslope snows in Snowshoe this weekend. Still has the decent CAD event on 12/26 but that gets eroded quickly and it is rain, maybe some icing to start along the 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles suggest a Eastern lakes cutter with redevelopment off the coast. But after looking at the 500's it doesn't look as if it would take too much to tip the scales for a southern route and then up the coast. Don't know much about Rex Blocks but if DT's thoughts on its staying power vs. the models breaking it down sooner is correct then even just an extra day of its blocking influence would probably tip the scales. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If that stinking HP had any mechanism to push south faster, we could get ice/snow- but block or not it doesn't really. I may get a few hours of ZR, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro ensembles suggest a Eastern lakes cutter with redevelopment off the coast. But after looking at the 500's it doesn't look as if it would take too much to tip the scales for a southern route and then up the coast. Don't know much about Rex Blocks but if DT's thoughts on its staying power vs. the models breaking it down sooner is correct then even just an extra day of its blocking influence would probably tip the scales. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next week or so. Generally speaking, when it's DT vs. all the models, it's a good idea to go with all the models - hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 06Z GFS is just downright ugly if you have any hopes of frozen in our region. Drives the low up through the central lakes into Canada. It does have a fairly impressive CAD signal though as has been mentioned by others on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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