Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 The CAD signal on the Euro for the 26th is Huge from this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 The CAD signal on the Euro for the 26th is Huge from this far out... definitely a wet storm...close call for Marcus/Psuhoffman land....at least looks like something interesting to track,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The CAD signal on the Euro for the 26th is Huge from this far out... hello! http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012121712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 those 850 temps so far south are pretty.....anomalous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 definitely a wet storm...close call for Marcus/Psuhoffman land....at least looks like something interesting to track,... does it start as freezing rain or something? I just want something frozen. Sounds like every run is trending south/east. You should be happy. We are plus 7 in the dec 1-17 period you really dont care about it. As long as we are cold in the heart of winter(dec 20-Jan 20)...Ill take this crap we endured so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Thats an awe inspiring event on the EURO...We would really need the 50/50 to hold as long as possible...Those 850s in the deep south are incredible. A big part of the storm is spike in the PNA. 1040mb high parked in SE Canada forcing a transfer to the coast @ 240 hrs...Pattern for the storm starts at 168 hrs...So lets hold this for 3 days shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 does it start as freezing rain or something? I just want something frozen. Sounds like every run is trending south/east. You should be happy. We are plus 7 in the dec 1-17 period you really dont care about it. As long as we are cold in the heart of winter(dec 20-Jan 20)...Ill take this crap we endured so far verbatim?...probably for you...yes \ EDIT - could be close, but verbatim, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 definitely a wet storm...close call for Marcus/Psuhoffman land....at least looks like something interesting to track,... Even there is looks to be mostly rain looking at the 240 hr as the 50 50 low moves far enough south and east as the redevelopment looks to be inland. Of course, it won't look like that anyway but that is a pretty big change from the last night's run (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 does it start as freezing rain or something? I just want something frozen. Sounds like every run is trending south/east. You should be happy. We are plus 7 in the dec 1-17 period you really dont care about it. As long as we are cold in the heart of winter(dec 20-Jan 20)...Ill take this crap we endured so far Been pretty dry up until now too! So it is not like we could not get snow from a system. Not many have come this way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Even there is looks to be mostly rain looking at the 240 hr as the 50 50 low moves far enough south and east as the redevelopment looks to be inland. Of course, it won't look like that anyway but that is a pretty big change from the last night's run (I think). It looks like a monster inverted trough to the west of the mountains which is no good once the CAD lifts out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It looks like a monster inverted trough to the west of the mountains which is no good once the CAD lifts out... the european once in a while will diverge from its 216 hour modeled storm. This is probably not the final solution:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 the european once in a while will diverge from its 216 hour modeled storm. This is probably not the final solution:) I like that fact that it is a massive storm and it isn't 65 degrees in advance of it....even though it will probably be 37 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Even there is looks to be mostly rain looking at the 240 hr as the 50 50 low moves far enough south and east as the redevelopment looks to be inland. Of course, it won't look like that anyway but that is a pretty big change from the last night's run (I think). 35 and rain with an unnecessary WWA for Trixie land for initial icing....that's my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 35 and rain with an unnecessary WWA for Trixie land for initial icing....that's my call lol, that's probably a good one if the storm even materializes anything like the Euro is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 35 and rain with an unnecessary WWA for Trixie land for initial icing....that's my call if we are -12 at 850 on Christmas day...hard to believe this storm wouldnt start out frozen. The Euro has already shifted the storm track about 400 miles since the 00z Saturday night disaster run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 lol, that's probably a good one if the storm even materializes anything like the Euro is forecasting. I am guessing no Feb 83 analog for this storm just quite yet:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro has 850's falling from day 9 to 10 to the north and EAST of the storm. I don't have any good graphics to look at, but wouldn't that be suggesting high pressure nosing in from the NE? Looks interesting, and congrats to Arkansas and Mississippi. That's one heck of a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro has 850's falling from day 9 to 10 to the north and EAST of the storm. I don't have any good graphics to look at, but wouldn't that be suggesting high pressure nosing in from the NE? Looks interesting, and congrats to Arkansas and Mississippi. That's one heck of a low. It's probably not right and the cooling at 850 could simply be evaporational cooling as the precip come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2 good-looking Euro ensemble runs in the row. Not too shabby. Colder and farther south than the Op at 216 with better confluence over southern Canada and New England. Definitely a CAD signal as well. 240 looks quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2 good-looking Euro ensemble runs in the row. Not too shabby. Colder and farther south than the Op at 216 with better confluence over southern Canada and New England. Definitely a CAD signal as well. 240 looks quite nice. Just looking over it myself. The one thing I did notice is the lack of a 50/50. Otherwise everything else looks somewhat promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2 good-looking Euro ensemble runs in the row. Not too shabby. Colder and farther south than the Op at 216 with better confluence over southern Canada and New England. Definitely a CAD signal as well. 240 looks quite nice. I think you need to go back 24 hrs to look at the likely evolution as at that time the low is on the KY/Tn border and the 850 temps over us are above zero. Add the inverted trough extending northwest of the low you showed and it look very miller b like not that it matters much at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wes, I did see that and I agree it's probably a Miller-B type scenario. Still a good CAD signal on the ensembles and potential for snow at either the beginning or the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wes, I did see that and I agree it's probably a Miller-B type scenario. Still a good CAD signal on the ensembles and potential for snow at either the beginning or the end. The beginning probably is more likely if indeed the low evolves somewhat like the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Both the 12z Euro and the 12Z GFS show a pretty potent system (with much different tracks) during the Wed-Thurs time frame next week... I think it was last week I remembered reading that... yeah... the pattern looks to be getting colder towards the latter part of Dec... but it also looks awefully dry. It looks wet to me. So maybe we get lucky. I just like that there is something to look at on the models. If the GFS comes south and the Euro holds... it should get fun around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think you need to go back 24 hrs to look at the likely evolution as at that time the low is on the KY/Tn border and the 850 temps over us are above zero. Add the inverted trough extending northwest of the low you showed and it look very miller b like not that it matters much at this time range. :216 looks like 850 right at zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 18z GFS all rain and not really close...except maybe some initial CAD....I haven't really seen a good solution yet...though looks like could be a high QPF event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18z GFS all rain and not really close...except maybe some initial CAD....I haven't really seen a good solution yet...though looks like could be a high QPF event Between 228 and 240 it appears the 18z GFS moves the storm almost due North directly into blocking high pressure to the north. I don't buy it. Maybe starts North and re-develops on the coast, but that is winding up as it plows into the block. Just my two cents..which probably isn't worth a penny!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18z GFS all rain and not really close...except maybe some initial CAD....I haven't really seen a good solution yet...though looks like could be a high QPF event At this pt getting precip of note would be a win. This storm initially looked wet and we are getting screwed like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/1st-major-winter-east-coast-storm-looks-more-and-more-likely-dec-26-27/458425827538014 Dt still honking.......I thought it was a pretty good read regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Heh, listening to me is precarious and dangerous at best. lol My logic is pretty simple. The look is "ok" to "good" and it's been consistent in some form or another. I worry about long leads as much as anyone but the evolution is logical. So at the very least we have a bit of potential with a relatively amplified pattern and some aob normal temps. The second part of my logic is that we have moved out of a pretty dry pattern coast to coast and have a fair amount of energy working around the large scale circulation. I would expect that to continue and not just shut off like a faucet. The last part of my logic is simply statistical. We've been snowless for quite some time now. So much so that it's easy to be pessimistic about any chances. And would make you right a heck of a lot more than wrong lately but that doesn't mean you will continue to be right going forward. I get excited when I see things and I think that sometimes my excitement comes through as me thinking high probability events or windows. That's not the case at all. I simply see the potential for a productive window. Like 60% chance at seeing some snow but less than 15% chance at a larger event (like 6"+ or something like that). That seems like a reasonable view. It's not like I'm saying days and days of snow or anything like that. I said this 4 days ago in response to Wes and I still feel the same way. Every day that goes by only adds to my cautious confidence. I've liked this window since it showed up post 300hrs on the gfs. And the main reason I've liked it is because it's honestly the first real chance at getting anything measurable and the signal for a storm was logical. I still feel good with a 60% chance @ a 1" storm in some form or another (.75" of snow and .25" of ice counts too..lol). Nothing has come up to change my mind yet. I think Wes responded to the quoted post at the chance being .6% or something like that but I have a liberating non-red tag so I can say whatever I want. LOL I was out playing hookie today and goofing off so I haven't looked at much until just now. Everything has been recapped pretty well in the thread already. Now that we're getting inside of fantasy land it's ok to start paying attention to the medium sized details a little closer (if that makes any sense). Storm track unfortunately continues to favor west and north of us. Yea, it can change but a heck of a lot of things would have to go right for that to happen. If it starts trending that way then it's worth discussing more but not right now imo. I have my eyes on the incoming cold airmass. If we're going to get a track to the west we need to root and root hard for the airmass to be pretty deep because the storm is going to butt heads with it and eventually win. The deeper the cold the better chance at a longer duration of snow on the front (stating obvious). The other details would be how the models are resolving the high. We really need a position leading up that supports a decent n-ne surface flow. Get too much of an east component and it's a lot easier to lose the cold air at and just above the surface. I got my eyes on that but we're still too far out to make any calls. It sure is looking like someone is going to get a good hit out of this too. My hunch at a decent strength storm at long leads is proving to be a good hunch but that is part luck of course. We could get lucky with a west track if it's far enough west and we have a really strong high sliding east. A shield of precip could easily overrun with "ok" thermal profiles to get mostly snow before the warm air works in as the precip cuts off. This isn't a common setup but it's possible anyways. All the lr stuff shows no torches either. 12 & 18z gfs are showing crappy rainers post xmas but there is good cold before and after. Yea, I know...cold dry/warm wet but still. Active pattern and *some* cold air around. Can we honestly expect much more than that even if the storm track is looking notsogreat? Sneaky storms can be the best kind. All kinds of despair wiped out in an instant. When we aren't even looking the gods finally smile on us. Let's just root like heck for overperforming cold and that the storm actually happens in some fashion. Even if the track sucks. Something has to give around here. It's becoming a borderline voodoo hex or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.