kurtstack Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The mid and long range is the only interesting thing to discuss at this point. So often, the short term is so bleak around here, that we keep on looking down the road. It's part of living in this area I guess. With the models all over the place right now the only safe thing to do in the mid and long range is to stick with the pattern of cutters followed by brief cold and then cutter, etc. That's what I'm sticking with in the mid and long range until it becomes obvious that a new pattern is emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro looks like at least some borderline potential for overrunning early in sys d10.. probably implies light mix/snow to rain.. for now. The bowling ball out west is pretty far north all along. Looks like it wants to lift into a cutter late already. West coast ridge at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think any kind of specificity at all is kind of foolish outside day 8....Ian is pretty much right...there may not even be a storm at all....but I think you are right in terms of the kind of storm we might expect in the 10-15 day range....something that is snow to rain...and those are kind of fun to forecast and i also would gladly take a sloppy inch or 2 before switching.... Getting a front end inch is probably our only hope in the 10-15 day range. That doesn't excite me and I view it almost as being rain for how the snow typically lasts in most of those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Getting a front end inch is probably our only hope in the 10-15 day range. That doesn't excite me and I view it almost as being rain for how the snow typically lasts in most of those situations. Basically anyone with the slightest bit of optomism is misreading the pattern. It is a good pattern west of Chicago, we just can't win with negative height anomolies in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS seems to be bit colder for next weekend's temps than 12z. Pretty much warm/wet, cold/dry, rinse and then repeat for pretty much the entire run. At least the pattern is becoming a lot more active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lol @ people chalking all of winter up as a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS height patterns over NA keep undergoing changes once you get out about a week in time. One of those changes has now brought a very cold look to the area from about Fri through Christmas. As for the Christmas storm, it's about half and half cutter vs sliding under us on the ens. With so much cold around, if true, you'd think even a track west of us might yield some frozen at the start or maybe a good duration ice event. Good to see the Euro move back away from the massive warm cutter it had on its prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lol @ people chalking all of winter up as a fail who's doing that?...90% of our average seasonal snowfall is after 12/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS height patterns over NA keep undergoing changes once you get out about a week in time. One of those changes has now brought a very cold look to the area from about Fri through Christmas. As for the Christmas storm, it's about half and half cutter vs sliding under us on the ens. With so much cold around, if true, you'd think even a track west of us might yield some frozen at the start or maybe a good duration ice event. Good to see the Euro move back away from the massive warm cutter it had on its prior run. i'm down with that...i just want to see something....most of our events are mixed or snow to rain or rain to snow....if we sit around waiting for an all snow event we could be waiting forever...we don't live in the right area for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 who's doing that?...90% of our average seasonal snowfall is after 12/16 And with the ens mean indicating an ever growing colder pattern starting at the end of the week, and with the ens height pattern showing ridging over Alaska and less west coast troughing starting around Christmas, we might be heading into a better pattern at exactly the best climo time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And with the ens mean indicating an ever growing colder pattern starting at the end of the week, and with the ens height pattern showing ridging over Alaska and less west coast troughing starting around Christmas, we might be heading into a better pattern at exactly the best climo time. This might be true but we have been chasing the door at the end of the hallway for a few weeks now. Until the Pacific has a real change in heights we are going to have us a long autumn winter. Fortunately it is still December 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Because the cold gets pulled down behind a wrapped up cutter it's awful tough to know with any certainty how deep and strong the airmass will be until the storm itself is resolved. Still pretty far in the future to worry much. The ridge that pops up over the intermountain west is far from resolved too. The period after xmas has many possibilities and thats fun imo. Yea it would be sweet to have a more classic look and not a messy Pac but at least it looks like a high probability of getting cold for a bit. We live and die with temps much more than north of us. Were just looking for some sort of winter event anyways. Even if it's ugly but delivers some white flakes I don't think anybody is going to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 finally, today's CFS weeks 3 and 4 forecasts look decent...at or a little above normal precip too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I know it is LR and it will probably be different come the 12Z but I am a little surprised no one mentioned the Euro. Both the Euro Op and ensembles look very promising for an east coast storm. Both have low pressure in the gulf coast region, a decent high pressure to the north and a positively tilted trough hitting the Mississippi region with the op having a cutoff to boot. They also both feature a 50/50 low though it is moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I know it is LR and it will probably be different come the 12Z but I am a little surprised no one mentioned the Euro. Both the Euro Op and ensembles look very promising for an east coast storm. Both have low pressure in the gulf coast region, a decent high pressure to the north and a positively tilted trough hitting the Mississippi region with the op having a cutoff to boot. They also both feature a 50/50 low though it is moving out. How can you tell that the 50-50 low is moving out if this is the 240 hr euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How can you tell that the 50-50 low is moving out if this is the 240 hr euro?? The ensemble is actually a little quicker with this setup so what I have posted is actually the 216hr map. When you look at the the 240 you can see it has moved out. As far as the op you basically can see the progression of the 50/50 when you look at the preceding maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The ensemble is actually a little quicker with this setup so what I have posted is actually the 216hr map. When you look at the the 240 you can see it has moved out. As far as the op you basically can see the progression of the 50/50 when you look at the preceding maps. You mean the block is not doing anything to keep the 50-50 low in place. Didnt someone on here say the block was worthless, or am I mistaken?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You mean the block is not doing anything to keep the 50-50 low in place. Didnt someone on here say the block was worthless, or am I mistaken?? The blocking is not optimal but it does look as if it slows the 50/50 down long enough to influence the trough coming out of the plains. 10 days out it really isn't important about the finer details as much as it is knowing that you have the players on the field. Of course with how the models have been going the chances are that the 12Z Euro will have this cutting into the lakes just like the GFS is showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 finally, today's CFS weeks 3 and 4 forecasts look decent...at or a little above normal precip too Mitch...you know full well that one of the warmer ensemble members will be the one to nail the long-range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The blocking is not optimal but it does look as if it slows the 50/50 down long enough to influence the trough coming out of the plains. 10 days out it really isn't important about the finer details as much as it is knowing that you have the players on the field. Of course with how the models have been going the chances are that the 12Z Euro will have this cutting into the lakes just like the GFS is showing now. The models have been showing the same basic set up off and on for a few days. The 500 map I posted 3 days ago for the same time period on the GFS was very similar. The signal for a storm coming out of the plains is there. If we keep the Block and 50/50 I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Mitch...you know full well that one of the warmer ensemble members will be the one to nail the long-range forecast. could be, but to get as cold as it looks for week 4, I can't imagine any members going above normal meh, it will be what it will be, I'm losing interest in weather it seems and am posting and coming to the Board more due to a 14 year old habit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No love on this GFS run. Seems like the models keep playing this "only one more cutter, and THAT storm will bring in the cold air" kind of game. Even if this post-Xmas storm cuts, I still think we have a chance at front-end CAD snow/ice with a nice banana high to the north in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No love on this GFS run. Seems like the models keep playing this "only one more cutter, and THAT storm will bring in the cold air" kind of game. Even if this post-Xmas storm cuts, I still think we have a chance at front-end CAD snow/ice with a nice banana high to the north in Canada. I see what you're saying. But it trended better since 00z with the AK block and the NAO block. It won't take too much more with the whole orientation mixed with the incoming trough over the Rockies to turn into something more favorable; even if it's snow to rain, I'll take it! Let's see how the rest of the models come in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No love on this GFS run. Seems like the models keep playing this "only one more cutter, and THAT storm will bring in the cold air" kind of game. Even if this post-Xmas storm cuts, I still think we have a chance at front-end CAD snow/ice with a nice banana high to the north in Canada. What I will be curious about are the GFS ensemble members. It seems with each progressive run we have more and more of the members going to a southern track solution vs. the cutter with the post Xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think it is better to focus on the pattern rather than any specific storm threats....the good news is we are going to get a -EPO in a few days, so within range and that should drive cold air down here...and the models want to reload it a week later....That is a start.....We aren't going to have any success with 60 degree days....even with a -PNA at least that pattern gives us chances at having legit air masses...without antecedent cold air masses we are doomed...cold means clipper, front thumps, etc are possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think it is better to focus on the pattern rather than any specific storm threats....the good news is we are going to get a -EPO in a few days, so within range and that should drive cold air down here...and the models want to reload it a week later....That is a start.....We aren't going to have any success with 60 degree days....even with a -PNA at least that pattern gives us chances at having legit air masses...without antecedent cold air masses we are doomed...cold means clipper, front thumps, etc are possible That's what I tried to say in the banter thread...it's all about expectations right now...if you want the big dog...not gonna happen...if you like a little snow falling then I THINK...we may get a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 That's what I tried to say in the banter thread...it's all about expectations right now...if you want the big dog...not gonna happen...if you like a little snow falling then I THINK...we may get a chance. why would any sane person think we have a shot at that?....we are running +7...it is hot everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 why would any sane person think we have a shot at that?....we are running +7...it is hot everyday Sanity is not a usual trait for us winter hobbyists... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sanity is not a usual trait for us winter hobbyists... You all seem to forget that the chase for that elusive KU is part of the fun. At least it is for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 why would any sane person think we have a shot at that?....we are running +7...it is hot everyday yea this is about a nasty as it gets, hopefully we make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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