WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 But the part that is needed to keep in mind is the storm shown on the 27th looks so darn good because of the "out of nowhere" xmas storm. The whole if this then this kinda thing. No storm on the 24-25th and we're right back to worrying about the storm cutting west. Why do you say that? There's no Xmas eve storm on the 12z, but it still has the 26-27th storm. I think what's different between the 18z and 12z, is 18z phases in a northern stream s/w with the storm, while the 12z does not. I'm sure the 24th storm has SOME influence, but I don't think it's make-or-break. Having the broad upper low over southern Canada IS make-or-break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Why do you say that? There's no Xmas eve storm on the 12z, but it still has the 26-27th storm. I think what's different between the 18z and 12z, is 18z phases in a northern stream s/w with the storm, while the 12z does not. I'm sure the 24th storm has SOME influence, but I don't think it's make-or-break. Having the broad upper low over southern Canada IS make-or-break. I didn't mean to imply make or break. Just that if the earlier storm doesn't happen or is weak/washed out then that sweet optimal track on 18z probably won't happen. But that doesn't mean we can't still get a good track. Just that the odd increase for a snow to rain or some kind of track that brings the surface low overhead or even west. I'm still stoked on it either way for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Heh, looked at the run. Xmas storm is warm at the surface until after the low gets NE of us but 850's and thicknesses are awful close to being pretty good. But the part that is needed to keep in mind is the storm shown on the 27th looks so darn good because of the "out of nowhere" xmas storm. The whole if this then this kinda thing. No storm on the 24-25th and we're right back to worrying about the storm cutting west. I will say this though, the gfs has been hell bent on some sort of storm between the 26-28th. I've liked the setup ever since it showed up at like hour 500. Get a good ull low to wrap itself up to the north and pull a nice chilly airmass down and then have something chase on it's heels. I've had my eye on it more just because it's been the "only" thing I've seen that looked "ok". Not because I though it looked great or had any type of high prob of occuring. As Wes has clearly pointed out that the different 500 looks haven't been great or even good except now the 18z is showing a decent vort track for both systems. And they both pull off the gulf. If this damn thing pans out then I am retiring with a winning record. Another day has gone by and I have zero reason to doubt my hunch....yet... With the brick wall sitting in southern Canada (modeled) I don't see how anything could cut this time. The "Chill Storm" might have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The cold is officially inside of 10 days and gfs is starting to think the snow is too. Euro says cold is inside of 10 days. Dare I say we crossed the 10 day line for the first time? Xmas snow seems quite unlikely but maybe it's a present from Santa for a 23 month torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS ejected a wave out of the west faster than 12z GFS & 12z EURO which is why it has the X-mas storm...Too far out to speculate, but it is looking like we will at least get some locked in cold air for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 500 changes on the GFS from run to run are something to watch. They show up easily by 120 especially at the high latitudes. Of course I have no idea why or how significant they are. It seems to always get back to the same place about this time next week though. The cold shot looking a bit less cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Gfs looks fine. A little surprised the Xmas storm is there again. Yea, it's not a hit on the run but it's there. The post Xmas storm is still there as well. I still see no reason to bail and another day has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Gfs looks fine. A little surprised the Xmas storm is there again. Yea, it's not a hit on the run but it's there. The post Xmas storm is still there as well. I still see no reason to bail and another day has passed. I don't see a reason to bail, but I don't know what to make of the changes so close in time. The 6z had my temps next Sat in the upper 20's at 1pm. My local forecast has me right at freezing for a high. The latest run has me in the low 40's. You can't like that trend. Could be wrong, but we've seen this play out before. Here's hoping for the best, but if we are in the 50's next weekend with a Christmas week forecast of cutters, would anyone really be shocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I don't see a reason to bail, but I don't know what to make of the changes so close in time. The 6z had my temps next Sat in the upper 20's at 1pm. My local forecast has me right at freezing for a high. The latest run has me in the low 40's. You can't like that trend. Could be wrong, but we've seen this play out before. Here's hoping for the best, but if we are in the 50's next weekend with a Christmas week forecast of cutters, would anyone really be shocked? EURO heard your message and said I agree. Massive cuter Christmas day. Getting ever so closer to chalking this winter up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Here's hoping for the best, but if we are in the 50's next weekend with a Christmas week forecast of cutters, would anyone really be shocked? 0z Euro supports this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0z Euro supports this... Drastic change Back to a 1 day cold shot. I woke up at 4 and did a quick scan of the GFS/Ec and was like??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Starting to think that rooting for another shutout this winter (or near shutout) might be an option. If we are going to be futile, lets by all the way futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'll probably get blasted for saying this, but at this point I don't see how we can have any faith in any model past 5 or 6 days. The changes to the Euro and even it's ensembles at day 10 fro 12z to 0z are just massive. The GFS is changing every run by about day 5. I don't think I ever recall seeing this. I don't know what somebody trying to forecast beyond 4 or 5 days is supposed to do. The mets that we have floating around here are great, but man how hard must it be for them. I know there's no way I'm gonna be able to look forward to anything at any long range. These models have been doing this for 6 weeks. I really think I'd place much more faith in knowledgeable people making a straight up analog based forecast for 7-10 days than I will be about any model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Well with today being the 16th I waiting for the 20th to see what MIGHT be falling on Christmas+- a day. the models are always back and forth. I thought everyone waited till we were 48 to 72 hours before they accepted what the models said? I'm hoping ( not expecting ) a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wow, I haven't checked things out here for a couple of days and talk about wild swings of emotion! Excitement over a possible Christmas Eve snow in yesterday's 18Z GFS, and now some tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth, that we should practically root for a shutout for the winter now. Arrrgh!...it's mid-December! OK, I'm sure some of that was snarky commentary, but still. I cannot really talk in some ways, I suppose, as I get "invested" in anything that looks good, then "depressed" when it then looks sucky 12 hours later. And I certainly find this month to be quite a yawner so far in terms of anything wintry to follow, like everyone else most assuredly does. Personally, I'm not expecting much (if anything) on or right around Christmas in terms of snow around here. Cold? Maybe...in fact quite probably I'd say. As for the time period right after Christmas into New Year's, now that does look potentially interesting as some others here have suggested. Could bear watching the overall pattern. Today's 06Z GFS doesn't look bad, really. It kind of links up the ridging across the high latitudes and it does look pretty cold here (think someone else mentioned the same thing earlier?). Some kind of clipper-like system (?) close to New Year's, a couple of days after a Lakes cutter. Sucks to have that first system cut off to our west, but it is active-looking, and we're talking >240 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'll probably get blasted for saying this, but at this point I don't see how we can have any faith in any model past 5 or 6 days. The changes to the Euro and even it's ensembles at day 10 fro 12z to 0z are just massive. The GFS is changing every run by about day 5. I don't think I ever recall seeing this. I don't know what somebody trying to forecast beyond 4 or 5 days is supposed to do. The mets that we have floating around here are great, but man how hard must it be for them. I know there's no way I'm gonna be able to look forward to anything at any long range. These models have been doing this for 6 weeks. I really think I'd place much more faith in knowledgeable people making a straight up analog based forecast for 7-10 days than I will be about any model forecasts. If you look at individual storms, you are going to always be disappointed in the longer ranges as the models won't get them right. They are better at the 5 day mean pattern because the larger scale waves are slower moving and easier to forecast. The problem for us is the larger scales are saying that a negative PNA is likely to continue through at least christmas which makes it tough to dig a shortwave far enough south to get the vort and low to track south of us. That's been the case for quite awhile now and why overall, I've been pretty negative about the pattern snow chances. The D+8 and D+11 analogs based on the 5 day centered mean forecasts have generally been pretty snowless (I didn't bother looking today as they look pretty similar to what they were showing a few days ago when I posted) so saying it is unlikely to snow and get a white Christmas isn't a complete guess. Maybe I'm relying too much on the models, but you know, so far this winter that has worked pretty doggone well if you don't get roped into single GFS run when the majority of the ens members are suggesting it is an outlier. Of course outliers sometimes end up being right but more often they end up leading one down the path to disappointment. Most here have forgotten that leading up to the dec storm of 2009, the models were not forecasting a snowstorm but the pattern was a good one so being optimistic was easy. This time, we've got the negative AO but really don't have much of a southern stream and despite the AO, the pattern isn't that good. Despite the MJO, the pattern still is looking more Nina-ish than nino-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If you look at individual storms, you are going to always be disappointed in the longer ranges as the models won't get them right. They are better at the 5 day mean pattern because the larger scale waves are slower moving and easier to forecast. The problem for us is the larger scales are saying that a negative PNA is likely to continue through at least christmas which makes it tough to dig a shortwave far enough south to get the vort and low to track south of us. That's been the case for quite awhile now and why overall, I've been pretty negative about the pattern snow chances. The D+8 and D+11 analogs based on the 5 day centered mean forecasts have generally been pretty snowless (I didn't bother looking today as they look pretty similar to what they were showing a few days ago when I posted) so saying it is unlikely to snow and get a white Christmas isn't a complete guess. Maybe I'm relying too much on the models, but you know, so far this winter that has worked pretty doggone well if you don't get roped into single GFS run when the majority of the ens members are suggesting it is an outlier. Of course outliers sometimes end up being right but more often they end up leading one down the path to disappointment. Most here have forgotten that leading up to the dec storm of 2009, the models were not forecasting a snowstorm but the pattern was a good one so being optimistic was easy. This time, we've got the negative AO but really don't have much of a southern stream and despite the AO, the pattern isn't that good. Despite the MJO, the pattern still is looking more Nina-ish than nino-ish. yep, and the clue for anyone who may not already know is the ever present Great Lakes low I hate the Great Lakes and hope they dry up (sorry JonJon, nothing personal!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The two days leading into NYE look chilly, almost bitter with flurries per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 yep, and the clue for anyone who may not already know is the ever present Great Lakes low I hate the Great Lakes and hope they dry up (sorry JonJon, nothing personal!) Hey now, as a native northeast Ohioan, I have to speak up in defense of the Lakes! Lake effect snow events are pretty awesome, and it sure was a bonus living on the southeast side of Cleveland. But I do know what you mean in terms of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The two days leading into NYE look chilly, almost bitter with flurries per GFS. We'll see out it ends up. The ens mean way out in that time range actually shows some riding poking up into Ak with wnwly flow across western Canada which would give the u.s a colder look that we've had but that's still way out there where there isn't much skill even in the mean pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 We'll see out it ends up. The ens mean way out in that time range actually shows some riding poking up into Ak with wnwly flow across western Canada which would give the u.s a colder look that we've had but that's still way out there where there isn't much skill even in the mean pattern. I think we've seen very few if any lr looks that are "classic" or solid so far this month. Don't think expectations were thinking that we get the nice +pna/-ao/-nao combo anytime soon either way. We're pretty much in the realm of timing something. Flow is fast. The only real chance would be to have a cutter end of being some sort of 50/50 with something chasing it's heels. Some sort of development and track along the baroclonic zone instead of over or west of us. That's what some models runs have shown from time to time. The temporary ridge behind a departing low in the rockies helps set it all up before the next trough enters the picture. But I certainly don't disagree with you at all with your assessment being not too good for snow. Nothing has ever had an obvious favorable look. Still doesn't mean we can't time something in an active and relatively fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 GFS joining the Euro let it rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z has that Boxing day event as a cutter, but it arrives perfectly down my way for a snow to ice event. Could be a nasty ice event as depicted. Less ice, more rain DC and other big cities. It's also not Boxing day, but like Thursday into Friday. Lack fo 50/50 allows HP to not push south and cold air books out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 the models have been horrible going back and forth, for anything out more than a few days it's better to go with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 the models have been horrible going back and forth, for anything out more than a few days it's better to go with the ensembles. Only people here would expect a d10+ model to be close on a storm... and yeah I know many know there is no skill but considering the time that range gets I'm not sure how many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It'll be different next run Keith, Zak and I really need some wintry weather to showcase our products. I'm sure-- just nice to see something 10 days out :0. If we can get that cold air in AND add a little blocking, good things could be in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Only people here would expect a d10+ model to be close on a storm... and yeah I know many know there is no skill but considering the time that range gets I'm not sure how many. Exactly why I speak with broad generalizations and not discussing a 50 mile shift in track and 850 line. I knew 18z was way suspicious.An out of nowhere Xmas storm acting 50-50ish so the storm on its heels took a sweet track. Take away storm 1and the track favors west. Much to be resolved and many many swings to come. The storm refuses to leave the picture and days keep passing. I'll take a front end inch before rain and be happy as a clam anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Exactly why I speak with broad generalizations and not discussing a 50 mile shift in track and 850 line. I knew 18z was way suspicious.An out of nowhere Xmas storm acting 50-50ish so the storm on its heels took a sweet track. Take away storm 1and the track favors west. Much to be resolved and many many swings to come. The storm refuses to leave the picture and days keep passing. I'll take a front end inch before rain and be happy as a clam anyway. I think any kind of specificity at all is kind of foolish outside day 8....Ian is pretty much right...there may not even be a storm at all....but I think you are right in terms of the kind of storm we might expect in the 10-15 day range....something that is snow to rain...and those are kind of fun to forecast and i also would gladly take a sloppy inch or 2 before switching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro huge snowstorm for Chicago dec 21:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro sets up a 50/50 low of sorts days 6-7 that brings us some cold air moisture looks to be gathering some in the gulf, at least the 850 RH suggests that on Day 7, but if that Low is slow to move it would squash everything....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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