clueless Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 When will the Pacific stop "killing" us? ' Cause a few more weeks and I can see this board over the edge, or "cliff", to be au courant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The GFS dealys bringing the nice cold air until the 22 or 23rd but then it looks cold and pretty dry for awhile (beyond Christmas) for what little that is worth. I don't buy it anyways.. a week ago the cold was delayed until Dec 18th...then Dec 20th...now Dec 23... I can see where this is going. Until I actually see the Pacific pattern breaking down...now modeled to do so because the guidance keeps teasing then backing off...until it actually changes...this is not going anywhere good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 When will the Pacific stop "killing" us? ' Cause a few more weeks and I can see this board over the edge, or "cliff", to be au courant. I wish I knew. Having ENSO neutral makes it tough to call. the negative PDO certainly isn't helping but that is partly due to what is happening in the Pacific. Matt's analogs like Feb. Me I take the winter in two week shots unless I see a strong nino or nina. This year being neutral makes the forecast a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 When will the Pacific stop "killing" us? ' Cause a few more weeks and I can see this board over the edge, or "cliff", to be au courant. It is going to be rough in here if the Pacific finally improves and then the Atlantic pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 I wish I knew. Having ENSO neutral makes it tough to call. the negative PDO certainly isn't helping but that is partly due to what is happening in the Pacific. Matt's analogs like Feb. Me I take the winter in two week shots unless I see a strong nino or nina. This year being neutral makes the forecast a crap shoot. It could last the entire winter...though maybe we would have a better shot at something when climo is better...I think we have a better chance at 6-7" for the winter than 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It could last the entire winter...though maybe we would have a better shot at something when climo is better...I think we have a better chance at 6-7" for the winter than 15" Well, I'd put my money on your pony. Not happy about it. PSU Hoffman remark about reversal of fortunes would be cruel, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It could last the entire winter...though maybe we would have a better shot at something when climo is better...I think we have a better chance at 6-7" for the winter than 15" Painful to hear...must be really painful to write...maybe we catch a break or two during our best climo periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Painful to hear...must be really painful to write...maybe we catch a break or two during our best climo periods. I could be totally out to lunch but I doubt it...in 1997 there were some Jan/Feb events that delivered even in a warm winter with a bad pattern...we probably just have to wait..I don't think any kind of warming in the ENSO regions will help us now...I almost hope they stay cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It could last the entire winter...though maybe we would have a better shot at something when climo is better...I think we have a better chance at 6-7" for the winter than 15" KA ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 KA ftw? maybe....we don't really have a very good sample size of neutral winters after Nina episodes....not that that is the most important metric...but none were good....you get a Nina hangover....85-86 got decent but it had a raging +PDO....but you can still sneak in some ok events...even January 1990 which was a +8 had an event the 1st week that was good for the burbs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I could be totally out to lunch but I doubt it...in 1997 there were some Jan/Feb events that delivered even in a warm winter with a bad pattern...we probably just have to wait..I don't think any kind of warming in the ENSO regions will help us now...I almost hope they stay cool There's no way to really tell what the pac is going to do during jan. Persistence is the intelligent call but the pac could easily have it's own ideas. AO is on the way down so a Dec reading of -1.5 is on the table. In my limited data set, all jans following a -1.5 or lower AO had a -ao as well. As we are painfully learning this month, a -ao can be trumped and rendered useless here in the ma. But I think it would be a mistake to assume it would be useless again in Jan if it's persistently negative again. Another statistical observation is that we are on our way to an 8 month streak of a monthly -pna. That type of streak isn't that common. The longest streak I can find is 9 months (oct 61 - june 62). Funny that I also thought dec 61 was a good analog to this dec. Even with that long stretch, Jan-Feb of 62 were barely negative so they almost don't count. 89-90 was an impressive 2 year period. 18 out of 24 months had a monthly -pna reading. I suppose statistically, odds favor the pna to snap out of it's dominant - phase. It hasn't been positive since the first week of Nov and even then it was barely positive for just about a week. Even when you go back to Oct 1st there was only one other short + period and that was in mid october. The last time the index was above +1 was the 3rd week of August. You would have to think at some point this winter we will not be continuously fighting a -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Heh, I just went back through my data. It's -1.75 or lower that had all Jans being negative. Interestingly enough....Dec 61 was -1.668 and it flipped to +1.645 in Jan. But the first half of Jan was really cold in the east. It will be interesting to see how this year's pattern evolves in comparison to 61-62. Dec of 61 was warm in the east for the first 3 weeks and then flipped cold for the last week and that lasted through mid Jan before going warm again. Feb of 62 was another month with a good mix of warm and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Word on the street is the Euro is pretty cold in the LR with some snow chances from Philly North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Word on the street is the Euro is pretty cold in the LR with some snow chances from Philly North Day 10 euro is a very good pattern...Problem is it is D10 and there is not a drop of precip in the entire CONUS....but a way better pattern than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 There's no way to really tell what the pac is going to do during jan. Persistence is the intelligent call but the pac could easily have it's own ideas. AO is on the way down so a Dec reading of -1.5 is on the table. In my limited data set, all jans following a -1.5 or lower AO had a -ao as well. As we are painfully learning this month, a -ao can be trumped and rendered useless here in the ma. But I think it would be a mistake to assume it would be useless again in Jan if it's persistently negative again. Another statistical observation is that we are on our way to an 8 month streak of a monthly -pna. That type of streak isn't that common. The longest streak I can find is 9 months (oct 61 - june 62). Funny that I also thought dec 61 was a good analog to this dec. Even with that long stretch, Jan-Feb of 62 were barely negative so they almost don't count. 89-90 was an impressive 2 year period. 18 out of 24 months had a monthly -pna reading. I suppose statistically, odds favor the pna to snap out of it's dominant - phase. It hasn't been positive since the first week of Nov and even then it was barely positive for just about a week. Even when you go back to Oct 1st there was only one other short + period and that was in mid october. The last time the index was above +1 was the 3rd week of August. You would have to think at some point this winter we will not be continuously fighting a -pna. February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If the euro is correct the storm train is derailed and it's going to be damn cold and dry to close out the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 If the euro is correct the storm train is derailed and it's going to be damn cold and dry to close out the month. I think we need the pattern to cooperate first (as the Euro depicts by D9). If that cold does verify and has sticking power, there is only a matter of time a shortwave pops up. The biggest concern here would be suppression to the south, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Day 10 euro is a very good pattern...Problem is it is D10 and there is not a drop of precip in the entire CONUS....but a way better pattern than the GFS It is a much better pattern than the GFS but as you say, it's pretty dry and it's day 10. I don't see any snow leading up to D10 as the initial lows track too far north and any redevelop looks to be just to our north. It really doesn't get cold until after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think we need the pattern to cooperate first (as the Euro depicts by D9). If that cold does verify and has sticking power, there is only a matter of time a shortwave pops up. The biggest concern here would be suppression to the south, however. I wouldn't worry about suppression at all. Euro does have a tendency to amp things too far at long leads. Not just saying it as a cliche either. And folks worrying about lack of vorts at long leads is silly too. Yea, it can easily be cold and dry but I wouldn't worry much about it until a 5 day lead. Especially during a fairly large scale shift at the upper levels. I haven't changed my thinking in 3 days. That's a pattern change too. LOL. Although I think we've collectively nailed Dec so far without jumping around like a ping pong ball. That's impressive considering what's been going on elsewhere around the board. Hat's off to the red tags, zwyts, and co. IMO- 25th-28th give or take a day is still very much on the table irt to some sort of potential (1" of snow counts as potential). The main thorn (temps) seems to want to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles are definitely buying the cold pattern. Maybe rain ending as snow next week? Our SNE friends are pants-tenting it today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I wouldn't worry about suppression at all. Euro does have a tendency to amp things too far at long leads. Not just saying it as a cliche either. And folks worrying about lack of vorts at long leads is silly too. Yea, it can easily be cold and dry but I wouldn't worry much about it until a 5 day lead. Especially during a fairly large scale shift at the upper levels. I haven't changed my thinking in 3 days. That's a pattern change too. LOL. Although I think we've collectively nailed Dec so far without jumping around like a ping pong ball. That's impressive considering what's been going on elsewhere around the board. Hat's off to the red tags, zwyts, and co. IMO- 25th-28th give or take a day is still very much on the table irt to some sort of potential (1" of snow counts as potential). The main thorn (temps) seems to want to cooperate. You're a great poster Bob, and I have tons of respect, but you need to go back and read this thread again. There's been plenty of "hat hanging" on 10-15 day forecasts. Excitement over what's modeled has waxed and waned ever since the beginning of the month, and not just by snow weenies either. Here we are, 13 days in, and still saying basically the same thing. I see no reason to believe what any model shows 10-15 days in the future, good or bad. None of them are demonstrating skill at that range. When I read that it might be "cold and dry" around Christmas, I can't help but thinking that it is just as likely to be something completely different. We've established that the current pattern is bad, that climo is bad. I get that. But I also think we've hung on those models, and have had some pretty big swings wrt enthusiasm or lack thereof concerning the "upcoming" patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You're a great poster Bob, and I have tons of respect, but you need to go back and read this thread again. There's been plenty of "hat hanging" on 10-15 day forecasts. Excitement over what's modeled has waxed and waned ever since the beginning of the month, and not just by snow weenies either. Here we are, 13 days in, and still saying basically the same thing. I see no reason to believe what any model shows 10-15 days in the future, good or bad. None of them are demonstrating skill at that range. When I read that it might be "cold and dry" around Christmas, I can't help but thinking that it is just as likely to be something completely different. We've established that the current pattern is bad, that climo is bad. I get that. But I also think we've hung on those models, and have had some pretty big swings wrt enthusiasm or lack thereof concerning the "upcoming" patterns. I just went back through and I respectfully disagree. With one exception early on, we've been really good. Yes, we definitely analyzed anything good that popped up but it was discounted more often than not. The vast majority of the talk in this thread is about how the pac and -pna is going to be awful tough to break down and change. The first 2-3 weeks of Dec were punted early and nobody has weenied out since for the most part. And we all accepted a prolonged period of a stormtrack to the west. The pattern progged around and after Christmas is happening very similar to the discussion we had a week ago. It was just pushed back a bit (as usual) but there's a lot of confidence growing that we are going to turn chilly. And that's been discussed at length and quite accurately. Wes has been exceptional all month but he's a rockstar so it is no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I just went back through and I respectfully disagree. With one exception early on, we've been really good. Yes, we definitely analyzed anything good that popped up but it was discounted more often than not. The vast majority of the talk in this thread is about how the pac and -pna is going to be awful tough to break down and change. The first 2-3 weeks of Dec were punted early and nobody has weenied out since for the most part. And we all accepted a prolonged period of a stormtrack to the west. The pattern progged around and after Christmas is happening very similar to the discussion we had a week ago. It was just pushed back a bit (as usual) but there's a lot of confidence growing that we are going to turn chilly. And that's been discussed at length and quite accurately. Wes has been exceptional all month but he's a rockstar so it is no surprise. I agree somewhat and we have great forecasters here. You, Wes, Matt, Ian, UsWx, etc. are great. But I do think we do hang on long range models which have proven unreliable to some degree. Staying the course with a bad pattern looks like a good bet, but I'm not going to go all in because any of the models don't look good at long range. Anyway keep up the great work, all of you. We've got plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 maybe....we don't really have a very good sample size of neutral winters after Nina episodes....not that that is the most important metric...but none were good....you get a Nina hangover....85-86 got decent but it had a raging +PDO....but you can still sneak in some ok events...even January 1990 which was a +8 had an event the 1st week that was good for the burbs.... 2/86 was such a fun month...stormy, frequent small to moderate snowstorms (6 separate snows), a couple of over-performers, and persistent cold from 2/7 through the end of the month. I can't think of a better month of snow in a year without any 6" snowstorms since I've been alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 5 consecutive gfs runs showing the same general 500 setup in the long range. Euro similar @ d10 for a few runs. Nobody needs to remind me how dangerous and dumb it is to have high confidence at that range but I have to say that the odds are favoring a period of chilly temps around Christmas and lasting for a few days afterwards. Midlo might make a white christmas. Does he deliver or do I have to drive down there and load my truck up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 5 consecutive gfs runs showing the same general 500 setup in the long range. Euro similar @ d10 for a few runs. Nobody needs to remind me how dangerous and dumb it is to have high confidence at that range but I have to say that the odds are favoring a period of chilly temps around Christmas and lasting for a few days afterwards. Midlo might make a white christmas. Does he deliver or do I have to drive down there and load my truck up? The 348 hr Bob Chill snowstorm is on the 18Z GFS, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 348 hr Bob Chill snowstorm is on the 18Z GFS, book it. Oh god...the kiss of death. With the exception of the psuhoffman storm, naming a snowstorm in the lr has an awful track record... On the flip side....if it happens I fully expect TWC to drop Euclid in exchange for Chill and mail me a big fat check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 5 consecutive gfs runs showing the same general 500 setup in the long range. Euro similar @ d10 for a few runs. Nobody needs to remind me how dangerous and dumb it is to have high confidence at that range but I have to say that the odds are favoring a period of chilly temps around Christmas and lasting for a few days afterwards. Midlo might make a white christmas. Does he deliver or do I have to drive down there and load my truck up? I guess that really is step 1. Get it cold. Maybe we could pull out a lucky clipper during that cold outbreak being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Oh god...the kiss of death. With the exception of the psuhoffman storm, naming a snowstorm in the lr has an awful track record... On the flip side....if it happens I fully expect TWC to drop Euclid in exchange for Chill and mail me a big fat check. For better or worse, you've earned the storm. Now you need it to perform or you'll gain Tracker bus status. Anyway, the models are all over the place on the earlier storm and on the Chill storm. The banter police are already about to descend. I'm through until the next run or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 LOL ant SNE inflated Expectations for next week. It's a 1-3 front end thump followed by a rainy disater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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