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December Mid-Long Range Discussion


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Long time to go, and even the Euro solution isn't that far away with the 850's, but who knows what the surface is (I'm sure someone does). There's so much variation, I don't think we are out (we may be down to the last out, but ask the Nats how that worked out).

It's far enough. Just nasty WAA everywhere north of the low because there's no 50/50 or other mechanism to keep the (what little is available) cold air in place. Should a Euro-like solution come to pass, we'd want it much farther south, so it can crash the 850s as it passes by (comfortably) offshore and we still have precip. Given how variable the solutions are, almost any solution is on the table. Just that most (~60%?) give us all rain. Most of the rest (~30%?) would be predominantly rain and change to snow, and only a few magical scenarios would give us all snow with such a marginal airmass.

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Can't totally tell with the 24 hour panels but the 0c line is in ohio. It crashes later but from what I see the precip is long over.

Without the real good 50 50 low, it's going to be rain. the inland track that both models now have is not a good one for snow lovers unless you get front end stuff or somehow have a nice closed low go to the south.

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Euro brings snow to the BR or so. Much of eastern WV in 4-8", 8-12" over western MD.

edit: tho I guess some of that is upslope after the storm.. continues pretty much thru the end of the period.

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Even out here in the mountains of Pocahontas County?

Depends which side of the mountains you live on, maybe after the storm passes and the flow turns northwesterly there could be snow squalls with the cold air. To be honest, I haven't looked that close as I've been out of the house most of the day.

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Not a lot of western hemisphere cold by D10 on the euro though.

It's still not a good pattern, rainy, then cold and dry and they it warms. The Pacific is still a big problem and the long range GEFS looks like it want to kill the negative AO and NAO towards the end of the run. They often are too quick to do that and the neg AO may come back later as it often does but the pattern is discouraging if you like snow and live in DC. Of course, some would argue that's always the case.

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Don't get me wrong, I think there will be 4 or 5 colder than normal days after the low goes by and ushers in cold air but then am worried that the AO and NAO will go neutral for awhile with a neg PNA and positive EPO. That would suggest another shot of warmer weather beyond our colder than normal air. The 25th probably still has a good chance at being colder than normal. . The ensemble mean is not as bad as I was originally saying though by 348 it looks like the storm track is likely to again be to our north with the negative PNA in place. However, its hard to know how much of the block will be left as the mean still shows higher than normal heights over parts of canada but the progs appear to have a positive NAO with the lower than normal heights over Iceland. The idea of us warming is predicated on the idea that lows will again go back to tracking to our north.

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I am less convinced then some that this will be a long term window...but I do think there is at least a more favorable period where its possible we get something between Dec22 and 28th. After that there is divergent data on if the pattern reverts to more of what we have been through the last month. If so...then we might have to face the fact that this is the "default" normal for this winter and favorable periods will be few and far between. It's too soon to know for sure though as we are talking way out in lala land by that point.

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storms take that path sometimes when there is no baroclinic zone because of a lack of cold air, and we don't remember them because they SUCK

Help me understand this. If the baroclinic zone is the boundary of cold/warm, wouldn't the track of a single low be along the coast this time of year and not through the piedmont?

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Help me understand this. If the baroclinic zone is the boundary of cold/warm, wouldn't the track of a single low be along the coast this time of year and not through the piedmont?

With so much warm air advection ahead of the shortwave on Sunday, the ocean temps are just as high as surface temps. Also, a 10 degree C gradient over 250 miles (ie. Coast and East) isn't going to have as much forcing as a 5 degree C gradient over 50 miles (land vs ocean).

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GFS looks ugly for the storm. Plenty of rain but torchy and man the 500 look is not even close to a few days ago.. Good ole long range models.

When the projected low on the 8 day moves 800 miles east in 24 hours or less then you simply don't have an 8 day forecast. So, dont fool with it and focus on 5 day or less and get that honed even more. 5 day and inside of has improved so much in last 10 year; beyond that not so much.

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When the projected low on the 8 day moves 800 miles east in 24 hours or less then you simply don't have an 8 day forecast. So, dont fool with it and focus on 5 day or less and get that honed even more. 5 day and inside of has improved so much in last 10 year; beyond that not so much.

Will try to take that advice. Its just that I got kinda ruined by the way the models handle the "big" ones, which they have sniffed out in the slightly longer 7-8 day ranges of late (thinking of Dec '09, Feb. 10, Sandy), so hard to keep eyes off of the 7-10 day stuff entirely. I guess the difference is the accuracy in that time range might have been tied to the awesome blocking regime for those storms, something the models had a good handle on. Without that blocking regime, in fast flow situations, definitely I need to add 300 grains of salt to the longer stuff and wait for the 5 days in to figure out reasonable weather.

Its still nice to know on the 7-10 day stuff if there is a chance of a system kicking around, even if details are not reasonable to know at that timeframe.

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