WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Long time to go, and even the Euro solution isn't that far away with the 850's, but who knows what the surface is (I'm sure someone does). There's so much variation, I don't think we are out (we may be down to the last out, but ask the Nats how that worked out). It's far enough. Just nasty WAA everywhere north of the low because there's no 50/50 or other mechanism to keep the (what little is available) cold air in place. Should a Euro-like solution come to pass, we'd want it much farther south, so it can crash the 850s as it passes by (comfortably) offshore and we still have precip. Given how variable the solutions are, almost any solution is on the table. Just that most (~60%?) give us all rain. Most of the rest (~30%?) would be predominantly rain and change to snow, and only a few magical scenarios would give us all snow with such a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Can't totally tell with the 24 hour panels but the 0c line is in ohio. It crashes later but from what I see the precip is long over. Without the real good 50 50 low, it's going to be rain. the inland track that both models now have is not a good one for snow lovers unless you get front end stuff or somehow have a nice closed low go to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Without the real good 50 50 low, it's going to be rain. the inland track that both models now have is not a good one for snow lovers unless you get front end stuff or somehow have a nice closed low go to the south. Even out here in the mountains of Pocahontas County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The big step forward IMO is the pattern change actually be projected within D10 now @ day 8 just a little more patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 -10 850s overhead on the 22nd per euro. Pretty cold day(s) on tap if this storm verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro brings snow to the BR or so. Much of eastern WV in 4-8", 8-12" over western MD. edit: tho I guess some of that is upslope after the storm.. continues pretty much thru the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Even out here in the mountains of Pocahontas County? Depends which side of the mountains you live on, maybe after the storm passes and the flow turns northwesterly there could be snow squalls with the cold air. To be honest, I haven't looked that close as I've been out of the house most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 -10 850s overhead on the 22nd per euro. Pretty cold day(s) on tap if this storm verifies. Not a lot of western hemisphere cold by D10 on the euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Not a lot of western hemisphere cold by D10 on the euro though. It's still not a good pattern, rainy, then cold and dry and they it warms. The Pacific is still a big problem and the long range GEFS looks like it want to kill the negative AO and NAO towards the end of the run. They often are too quick to do that and the neg AO may come back later as it often does but the pattern is discouraging if you like snow and live in DC. Of course, some would argue that's always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Don't get me wrong, I think there will be 4 or 5 colder than normal days after the low goes by and ushers in cold air but then am worried that the AO and NAO will go neutral for awhile with a neg PNA and positive EPO. That would suggest another shot of warmer weather beyond our colder than normal air. The 25th probably still has a good chance at being colder than normal. . The ensemble mean is not as bad as I was originally saying though by 348 it looks like the storm track is likely to again be to our north with the negative PNA in place. However, its hard to know how much of the block will be left as the mean still shows higher than normal heights over parts of canada but the progs appear to have a positive NAO with the lower than normal heights over Iceland. The idea of us warming is predicated on the idea that lows will again go back to tracking to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On a positive note... a pretty good cluster of guidance is taking the AO back down to -4ish before relaxing again. If that were to happen then this Dec is on pace to come in fair bit below -1.5 on a monthly reading. That's a strong signal that we can expect a -ao January as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I am less convinced then some that this will be a long term window...but I do think there is at least a more favorable period where its possible we get something between Dec22 and 28th. After that there is divergent data on if the pattern reverts to more of what we have been through the last month. If so...then we might have to face the fact that this is the "default" normal for this winter and favorable periods will be few and far between. It's too soon to know for sure though as we are talking way out in lala land by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 384 hr individual members are all over the place so saying really, I shouldn't have said much about the pattern. Lots of members do keep it cold. I need to read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 384 hr individual members are all over the place so saying really, I shouldn't have said much about the pattern. Lots of members do keep it cold. I need to read more and post less. I say post more...i enjoy your thoughts...honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z Euro Ens aren't as quick to get the EPO region looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Matt, I think anything beyond day 11 or 12 is even more suspect than usual though day 10 looks pretty chilly on any of the ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 storms take that path sometimes when there is no baroclinic zone because of a lack of cold air, and we don't remember them because they SUCK Help me understand this. If the baroclinic zone is the boundary of cold/warm, wouldn't the track of a single low be along the coast this time of year and not through the piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Remember a backloader is more in the cards this year by many and I as well. Time for things to change but the overall long range now does not look as good anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Help me understand this. If the baroclinic zone is the boundary of cold/warm, wouldn't the track of a single low be along the coast this time of year and not through the piedmont? With so much warm air advection ahead of the shortwave on Sunday, the ocean temps are just as high as surface temps. Also, a 10 degree C gradient over 250 miles (ie. Coast and East) isn't going to have as much forcing as a 5 degree C gradient over 50 miles (land vs ocean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS looks ugly for the storm. Plenty of rain but torchy and man the 500 look is not even close to a few days ago.. Good ole long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS looks ugly for the storm. Plenty of rain but torchy and man the 500 look is not even close to a few days ago.. Good ole long range models. When the projected low on the 8 day moves 800 miles east in 24 hours or less then you simply don't have an 8 day forecast. So, dont fool with it and focus on 5 day or less and get that honed even more. 5 day and inside of has improved so much in last 10 year; beyond that not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well the Ukie and CMC are certainly in a different camp than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well the Ukie and CMC are certainly in a different camp than the GFS Hello there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Maybe the Euro puts us back in business. Off to bed. Hopeful to wake up to 2 more pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro smoking tonight, is that convective feedback on it? Looks impossible. Low near coast, jumps way out, then comes back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 06Z is pretty much a FAIL if you were hoping for some sort of major coastal. It does bring in some fairly impressive cold for awhile in the longer range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 When the projected low on the 8 day moves 800 miles east in 24 hours or less then you simply don't have an 8 day forecast. So, dont fool with it and focus on 5 day or less and get that honed even more. 5 day and inside of has improved so much in last 10 year; beyond that not so much. Will try to take that advice. Its just that I got kinda ruined by the way the models handle the "big" ones, which they have sniffed out in the slightly longer 7-8 day ranges of late (thinking of Dec '09, Feb. 10, Sandy), so hard to keep eyes off of the 7-10 day stuff entirely. I guess the difference is the accuracy in that time range might have been tied to the awesome blocking regime for those storms, something the models had a good handle on. Without that blocking regime, in fast flow situations, definitely I need to add 300 grains of salt to the longer stuff and wait for the 5 days in to figure out reasonable weather. Its still nice to know on the 7-10 day stuff if there is a chance of a system kicking around, even if details are not reasonable to know at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 06Z is pretty much a FAIL if you were hoping for some sort of major coastal. It does bring in some fairly impressive cold for awhile in the longer range though. Isnt one of the cutters shown occurring while there is a 50-50 low, which is not supposed to happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Isnt one of the cutters shown occurring while there is a 50-50 low, which is not supposed to happen?? The 50/50 doesn't form until the low has already cut and made it to almost the Great Lakes. That is why you see the low stop dead in it's tracks around the lakes when it feels the effects of the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Lol DT just came out with woof 1 woof 2 and wooof 3 details shortly he is banging the xmas storm drum. Sounds like we may need a kennel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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