Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS surface panels really show the lack of cold air. Freezing line is basically in Canada and this is with a 1030ish hp in eastern canada. There is just no cold air anywhere to be found in the eastern 3rd of north america. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That seems to be a strange path for a low to take. Not trying to imply that it can't happen, but I don't know when I've seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS surface panels really show the lack of cold air. Freezing line is basically in Canada and this is with a 1030ish hp in eastern canada. There is just no cold air anywhere to be found in the eastern 3rd of north america. I think, for most of us, we'd rather see an inland cutter or a storm OTS than a coastal powerhouse with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Doesn't matter if it's below 0F next Monday. If a low tracks through central VA, to the Chessy to southern NJ to NYC, we're gonna get rain. Really shakes up the pattern going forward. If my Xmas is going to be brown, I want it to be frozen brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Doesn't matter if it's below 0F next Monday. If a low tracks through central VA, to the Chessy to southern NJ to NYC, we're gonna get rain. Really shakes up the pattern going forward. If my Xmas is going to be brown, I want it to be frozen brown. The track can easily shift south. Probably won't matter. Every run shows a different solution leading up @ 500. The vort is far from resolved so maybe things change in our favor..or maybe it tracks the apps. 12z shows that same monster hp in n central canada. Nice looking omega shaped ridge in the intermountain west too. Really strong signal for cold here. We can talk about the xmas eve coastal later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS surface panels really show the lack of cold air. Freezing line is basically in Canada and this is with a 1030ish hp in eastern canada. There is just no cold air anywhere to be found in the eastern 3rd of north america. You could see, though, how this thing was going to get blocked as it got up towards Long Island/New England. And as it bombs out, some cold gets sucked down the back side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The track can easily shift south. Probably won't matter. Every run shows a different solution leading up @ 500. The vort is far from resolved so maybe things change in our favor..or maybe it tracks the apps. 12z shows that same monster hp in n central canada. Nice looking omega shaped ridge in the intermountain west too. Really strong signal for cold here. We can talk about the xmas eve coastal later... Bird-in-hand and all, but hard not to want to trade a 45F coastal rainstorm for the pattern that gets set up behind it. Big EPO/PNA ridge and a nearly endless stream of s/w's coming our way with ample cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Bird-in-hand and all, but hard not to want to trade a 45F coastal rainstorm for the pattern that gets set up behind it. Big EPO/PNA ridge and a nearly endless stream of s/w's coming our way with ample cold air available. Quit talkin dirty. There are kids on here. The pattern would still do the same thing if it was a coastal snow storm so it's not a good trade. lol I really really like the look in past day 8. It's the first time I haven't been staring at some sort of fast moving pac zonal flow in what seem like forever. The flow finally buckles. Canadian air finally gets tapped. And it looks to stick around for a while. It would be foolish to say its a lock but this isn't the first run to show some version of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Quit talkin dirty. There are kids on here. I really really like the look in past day 8. It's the first time I having been staring at some sort of fast moving zonal flow in what seem like forever. The flow finally buckles. Canadian air finally gets tapped. And it looks to stick around for a while. It would be foolish to say its a lock but this isn't the first run to show some version of this. that is what I have been looking at....the 1st threat is pretty low probability.....after that things could get good....the pattern around day 10 is pretty money...-epo/+PNA/-NAO/split flow....antecedent cold....the models have been good with the pattern so far....and the posters here have as well....12/23-12/27?....Christmas fun?...thank God it doesnt look like it will be 55 on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 that is what I have been looking at....the 1st threat is pretty low probability.....after that things could get good....the pattern around day 10 is pretty money...-epo/+PNA/-NAO/split flow....antecedent cold....the models have been good with the pattern so far....and the posters here have as well....12/23-12/27?....Christmas fun?...thank God it doesnt look like it will be 55 on Christmas Absolutely. It's pretty interesting and dare I say has real potential? Euro is pointing towards the same general setup too. GFS seems pretty bent on it. I too like the 23-27 time frame. Even if not, it's looking more and more ripe isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 that is what I have been looking at....the 1st threat is pretty low probability.....after that things could get good....the pattern around day 10 is pretty money...-epo/+PNA/-NAO/split flow....antecedent cold....the models have been good with the pattern so far....and the posters here have as well....12/23-12/27?....Christmas fun?...thank God it doesnt look like it will be 55 on Christmas This. GFS ensemble mean out now, and if anything, looks like MORE spread than 6z, just based off how baggy the isobars and precip contours are. GFS Op is VERY cold for Christmas. Sub-30F highs? Lows in the mid-upper 10s in the burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 When I see panels like this it just makes the world right. Yea, it's fantasy land but the evolution is quite plausible. There are a lot of ways to get snow with this. Clippers, phasers, and even miller A's. If a setup like this actually happens and we don't get snow I may have to change my last name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That seems to be a strange path for a low to take. Not trying to imply that it can't happen, but I don't know when I've seen it. storms take that path sometimes when there is no baroclinic zone because of a lack of cold air, and we don't remember them because they SUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 storms take that path sometimes when there is no baroclinic zone because of a lack of cold air, and we don't remember them because they SUCK I guess so. Just seemed weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Damn...I'll take this every day of the week. Perfect ridge axis (~Boise-Las Vegas) out west, s/w in the plains, west-based -NAO, something like a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think, for most of us, we'd rather see an inland cutter or a storm OTS than a coastal powerhouse with rain. I dunno, it might be nice to know it can still precipitate here. It's early still.. set up a storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Sorry...can't help it, 276 is even better. If we miss the 18-19th, that does NOT mean we're skunked for awhile. Beautiful set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 When I see panels like this it just makes the world right. Yea, it's fantasy land but the evolution is quite plausible. There are a lot of ways to get snow with this. Clippers, phasers, and even miller A's. If a setup like this actually happens and we don't get snow I may have to change my last name. I'm just happy with the consistent showing of a low off the WC far enough to get a ridge out west. Something, anything to disrupt the fast Pac that has been the cause of Dec being +8 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS ensemble mean out now, and if anything, looks like MORE spread than 6z, just based off how baggy the isobars and precip contours are. Wow...just all OVER the place on the individual members. A couple look like the Op, a few are more inland than the Op, many are surpressed, and one is an absolute snow-bomb monster. Note on the snow-bomb...it is the slowest of the ensembles (like Wednesday kind of slow). More time for cold air to drain in, plus it has crazy wild dynamics associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Getting uneasy thought about the "10-15 day" being the player that it has been. That phrase can quickly become a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Wow...just all OVER the place on the individual members. A couple look like the Op, a few are more inland than the Op, many are surpressed, and one is an absolute snow-bomb monster. Note on the snow-bomb...it is the slowest of the ensembles (like Wednesday kind of slow). More time for cold air to drain in, plus it has crazy wild dynamics associated with it. As far as the GFS is concerned, there sure seems to be a lot of possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As far as the GFS is concerned, there sure seems to be a lot of possible solutions. And the number of possible solutions is increasing...Euro in the process of throwing out a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And the number of possible solutions is increasing...Euro in the process of throwing out a new one. The Canadian basically has no storm for us. It had a low only developing after what looked like a cold front passes through. Hope the Euro isn't going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Canadian basically has no storm for us. It had a low only developing after what looked like a cold front passes through. Hope the Euro isn't going that way. It's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro is about a full day later than the GFS, because it develops a 3rd s/w rather than the 2nd one. Has a weak OH Valley/Apps rider for the 2nd s/w, and then BOMBs out the 3rd s/w, giving everyone on the East Coast a very windy rainstorm. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, without a good 50/50 low, it's game over for snow chances with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro is about a full day later than the GFS, because it develops a 3rd s/w rather than the 2nd one. Has a weak OH Valley/Apps rider for the 2nd s/w, and then BOMBs out the 3rd s/w, giving everyone on the East Coast a very windy rainstorm. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, without a good 50/50 low, it's game over for snow chances with this storm. Even out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Even out here? Probably at least for awhile, yes. But this beast moves slowly and 850s finally crash during the day Wednesday. Maybe even enough to change the rain to snow east of the mountains. You'd probably do well eventually. Mountains of NE would CASH in. So many solutions, not worth getting into details on any in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Even out here? Can't totally tell with the 24 hour panels but the 0c line is in ohio. It crashes later but from what I see the precip is long over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Long time to go, and even the Euro solution isn't that far away with the 850's, but who knows what the surface is (I'm sure someone does). There's so much variation, I don't think we are out (we may be down to the last out, but ask the Nats how that worked out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro setting the table like the gfs d8 and beyond. Big ridge popping in the west. Fairly strong west based -nao. Confidence building... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.