EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 So who seen the Euro. Epic run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 0z Euro...big storm........may be too warm...track a little too far west for our liking....i don't have thermal profiles....992 off ORF, 984 east of Ocean City...hard to believe that is a rainstorm....but looks way too warm until the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks just cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Day 7 850 temp and winds http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 per the clown snowfall maps off of Wunderground, you need to be in NE to get snow out of this one no snowfall anywhere near the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I refuse to believe that a coastal will not wind up enough to suck in the colder air to the west to at least show the blue line to be more NE to SW instead of a jigsaw puzzle shape as depicted on 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I refuse to believe that a coastal will not wind up enough to suck in the colder air to the west to at least show the blue line to be more NE to SW instead of a jigsaw puzzle shape as depicted on 6z GFS. Wishing and hoping is fine, but there has been precious little cold air anywhere for a long time in this part of the country. I don't see how a wet solution is anything other than logical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I refuse to believe that a coastal will not wind up enough to suck in the colder air to the west to at least show the blue line to be more NE to SW instead of a jigsaw puzzle shape as depicted on 6z GFS. As NE Balt just said, you need a solid source of cold air for the storm to wrap up. NE has baked just as much as we have so there is no nearby source of cold air to work with. It will be tough as it stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As NE Balt just said, you need a solid source of cold air for the storm to wrap up. NE has baked just as much as we have so there is no nearby source of cold air to work with. It will be tough as it stands right now. I agree with what you point out. As a novice model hugger it just seems that the depiction of the 850 line on the 6z run looks odd as if there is some info missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Until the we get a +PNA, I don't feel the best when it comes to these future events. There is plenty of time for things to change but personally I believe this is all apart of the winter setup leading to a cold January & February!!! Winter has just started and we have sometime to get the ball rolling. Don't get me wrong, I would take any event if possible. Last year it was getting the -AO/-NAO and this year it is getting a +PNA and -EPO at the moment. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Still think the odds are strongly against this being a snow storm. I couldn't say that in the CWG as that's too risky for there. Here I can say it. The cold air does really get here for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Pretty clear (or I think it's clear) what happened with the overnight runs. A slower and weaker cutter prevents a signfiicant 50/50 low from forming --> no confluence --> no cold air. Without this cutter delivering cold air, next week's storm is certainly rainy. Good news however, is a strong storm next week (even if rain), certainly would deliver the cold air and seems to shake up the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You know it's tough around here when you have to root for a cutter and it still fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Still think the odds are strongly against this being a snow storm. I couldn't say that in the CWG as that's too risky for there. Here I can say it. The cold air does really get here for the storm. The cold air does really get here for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The cold air does really get here for the storm? Likely a typo and he means "doesn't". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You know it's tough around here when you have to root for a cutter and it still fails. Like I said before, when you need A+B+C/D to get what we need, it's already a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well whether it is this weekend's sorta cutter, or next week's rainstorm, we need one of these to go up and park and cajole some cold air in here at some point. Hope one of them isn't a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Like I said before, when you need A+B+C/D to get what we need, it's already a fail. Since 09-10 it's been more like this: I just looked at the 6z gfs. There is a 1032hp in far eastern canada. It's just in a crappy spot. Need to be further SW. Even then I'm not sure it matters. The air up in se canada isn't really cold either. We'll see how things progress. Getting a 500 track like that in Dec has a lot better chance at surprising us than in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Its still 7 days out..... thermal profiles can change too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Its still 7 days out..... thermal profiles can change too Agreed the thermal profiles have changed significantly run to run on both the GFS and Euro, and a stronger 50/50 could possibly do the trick. There is still a lot to be decided with a the storm approximately a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since 09-10 it's been more like this: I just looked at the 6z gfs. There is a 1032hp in far eastern canada. It's just in a crappy spot. Need to be further SW. Even then I'm not sure it matters. The air up in se canada isn't really cold either. We'll see how things progress. Getting a 500 track like that in Dec has a lot better chance at surprising us than in Nov. Good pic. Also, the 6z has the H5 low farther north compared to 0z from what I saw. Thank God we have the Dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Good pic. Also, the 6z has the H5 low farther north compared to 0z from what I saw. Thank God we have the Dgex. um, Randy.....we lost the DGEX on the 6z run http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Not as "sexy" as latest first freeze, but the latest ever first sub-30 reading at DCA is 12/22/2001. Perilously close on the 06z GFS to that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The cold air does really get here for the storm? Doesn't, it was indeed a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 on a positive note, fwiw, CFS2 is slowly getting JAN cooler from a recent warm surge today's run has us back w/in the normal range, along with FEB, and it has both months with above normal precip at the same time, it is roasting Europe during those 2 months suggesting the cold air will be on our side of the Pole if you recall, the latest Euro monthlies cooled from last couple months as well putting JAN & FEB into the normal range of the scale (+ or = .5C) looks like we're just going to have to bide our time until after the holidays for our best shots at snow, which isn't a bad thing for the MA because when we lock into a wintry patter in late DEC/early JAN, it usually sticks around long enough to rack up some snowfall since we need the coldest period climo-wise to get precip to fall as snow in most winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Doesn't, it was indeed a typo. Yeah. I thought so. Oh well. it would have been a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 on a positive note, fwiw, CFS2 is slowly getting JAN cooler from a recent warm surge today's run has us back w/in the normal range, along with FEB, and it has both months with above normal precip at the same time, it is roasting Europe during those 2 months suggesting the cold air will be on our side of the Pole if you recall, the latest Euro monthlies cooled from last couple months as well putting JAN & FEB into the normal range of the scale (+ or = .5C) looks like we're just going to have to bide our time until after the holidays for our best shots at snow, which isn't a bad thing for the MA because when we lock into a wintry patter in late DEC/early JAN, it usually sticks around long enough to rack up some snowfall since we need the coldest period climo-wise to get precip to fall as snow in most winters I know the CFS2 is a high tech model but I just have a tough time having confidence in it. It just seems like it is taking the current 15-30 prog and extrapolating forward but the 15-30 day prog changes more times than a newborn's diaper. I agree that we are probably in for a cooler or dare I say cold stretch to close out the year but can any model really have any skill beyond that? Years without strong enso just don't have a strong enough signal to have any accuracy beyond a week or 2 let alone a month or two. I think we just have to take this winter a week or 2 at a time and even then it will be full of uncertainty. But at least it isn't boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I know the CFS2 is a high tech model but I just have a tough time having confidence in it. It just seems like it is taking the current 15-30 prog and extrapolating forward but the 15-30 day prog changes more times than a newborn's diaper. I agree that we are probably in for a cooler or dare I say cold stretch to close out the year but can any model really have any skill beyond that? Years without strong enso just don't have a strong enough signal to have any accuracy beyond a week or 2 let alone a month or two. I think we just have to take this winter a week or 2 at a time and even then it will be full of uncertainty. But at least it isn't boring. well, I don't disagree w/you for the most part Bob but it has been pretty good this season once we are w/in a month of the forecast period, so I believe it encouraging that it has been trending cooler for the JAN/FEB period and the Euro now has basically the same forecast for the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z much more organized with the surface low. Rains harder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That's a formidable rain storm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.