Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's this isn't crazy then I don't know what is. This is the 600 hr cfs for 12/20: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18z GFS really strings out this weekends system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Gfs is super close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Gfs is super close. I thought it was gonna go boom at 174..... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I know we are way out there but I just want to point out the big diff between 12z/18z. 50/50 isn't there so it glides east. Exactly what was discussed earlier in the thread. Big difference at 500 overall. And this will change a about 30 times in the the coming days. Here's the side by side @ hrs 174/180: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS is cold post storm all the way through the end of the run. Doesn't look like we get much out of the 30's and xmas day is cold. GFS is pretty dry precip wise but who cares at this point. Just nice to see another run stick with cold surface temps for xmas week. At one point there is a 1050+ hp in central canada. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Ensemble mean looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Gfs is super close. dude--it looks way to close to the boxing day storm where SE VA got pounded..we got skipped and Boston and NY got clobbered. And that is the #1 analog for storm:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 18z GFS does a March 4-6 2001 esque type deal with the 50/50 low it ends up trying to do a phase, meteorology porn, but it will change 10000 times. I'm more worried about this thing being squashed then going inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Ensemble mean looks solid DT lol. This isn't the banter thread guys. Please keep that stuff in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 dude--it looks way to close to the boxing day storm where SE VA got pounded..we got skipped and Boston and NY got clobbered. And that is the #1 analog for storm:( Yea I looked up the 500mb for that storm it looks very similar across the CONUS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1225.php I think we need a bit more separation between the day 4-5 event and the main one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I know we are way out there but I just want to point out the big diff between 12z/18z. 50/50 isn't there so it glides east. Exactly what was discussed earlier in the thread. Big difference at 500 overall. And this will change a about 30 times in the the coming days. Here's the side by side @ hrs 174/180: noted this a few times .. think it's a solid reason not to get too excited about any one solution even if this was 4 days out. signal grows.. but for what who knows. seems end result of a sys acting more like a miller b even if forms well south is a decent bet. boxing day did that of course. i sorta think that qpf max to our south is bunk on the gfs.. not that it matters since it won't be there next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Little weather porn for you guys on the 18z DGEX lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 dude--it looks way to close to the boxing day storm where SE VA got pounded..we got skipped and Boston and NY got clobbered. And that is the #1 analog for storm:( It may turn out that way but the last model run I'd ever depend on would be the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I know we are way out there but I just want to point out the big diff between 12z/18z. 50/50 isn't there so it glides east. Exactly what was discussed earlier in the thread. Big difference at 500 overall. And this will change a about 30 times in the the coming days. Here's the side by side @ hrs 174/180: I thought that a weakened 50/50 would allow the system to ride up the Apps or cut to the Lakes. Why is it that a weak 50/50 would allow the system to slide off the coast? Isn't that a symptom of an über block, and not of a weakened one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I thought that a weakened 50/50 would allow the system to ride up the Apps or cut to the Lakes. Why is it that a weak 50/50 would allow the system to slide off the coast? Isn't that a symptom of an über block, and not of a weakened one? i think in this case the closed low to the north helps shunt it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 i think in this case the closed low to the north helps shunt it out. Gotcha. Had a look at the 500 - makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Already pretty big changes on the 0z from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GFS is a mess folks, surface depictions all over the place, some blob of convection in south GA and a slp heading for the Ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GFS is a mess folks, surface depictions all over the place, some blob of convection in south GA and a slp heading for the Ohio valley ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The GFS is a mess folks, surface depictions all over the place, some blob of convection in south GA and a slp heading for the Ohio valley Look at the upper levels before making any calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Look at the upper levels before making any calls Is it me or does the GFS actually look presentable for us at this range at h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The problem with this storm is that that without the northern stream connection we don't get the cold air, but earlier depictions of a phase had a huge cutter west. That initial wave being weak and not developing doesn't draw down enough cold air for this storm it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Is it me or does the GFS actually look presentable for us at this range at h5? h5 is actually pretty nice we just don't have the cold air around, that northern stream wave is lurking though... the interaction between the initial wave, the southern stream wave and the northern stream wave is going to be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Solid February 1998 setup on the GFS. Intense low taking the perfect track, and it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 976 low and hardly any precip. We are going to see a bunch of wild solutions over the next 4-5 days but its fun to be tracking something besides heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 well...the 00z gfs is the worst solution ever. good track and very warm rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 976 low and hardly any precip. We are going to see a bunch of wild solutions over the next 4-5 days but its fun to be tracking something besides heat. w/o the cold air, there's not a whole lot of baraclonicity (contrast between cold and warm) so it is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 well...the 00z gfs is the worst solution ever. good track and very warm rainstorm. It will be nice to see if we can get precip anymore at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 huge rainstorm at the end of the run. Love the pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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