mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Do you have an example of a sub 990 low off Ocean City with a 1030 high in a good spot that resulted as cold rain entirely for us in late December? not off the top of my head, but I do have the memories from all the storms we've had since the 09/10 winter burned into my soul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is the euro out to day 7 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 after looking at the surface maps, verbatim, the GFS is a cold rain just sayin' It's 192 hours Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Is the euro out to day 7 yet? day 4 on Plymouth http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Do you have an example of a sub 990 low off Ocean City with a 1030 high in a good spot that resulted as cold rain entirely for us in late December? As I said earlier today, getting an all-snow event out of this will be tricky. A rain-to-snow is very much in play. Snow/ice-to-rain would be a possibility if this cuts far enough west and we have some antecedent CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's 192 hours Mitch. I know, but in light of what we've seen happen the prior 2 winters, I'm skeptical if it shows all snow at 192 hrs. and even more so when it shows rain verbatim, that's all he!!, in the good ole' days the GFS showed all snow at 3-5 days and we got a changeover or a mix, now we get those kind of surface features depicted by the model and it still shows rain for the most part....a little disheartening to say the least, so I'm keeping expectations low for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 day 4 on Plymouth http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Looks way far north to me. It's keeping it's old solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks way far north to me. It's keeping it's old solution Thats the weekend storm? Or are you referring to its ultimate solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Thats the weekend storm? Or are you referring to its ultimate solution I shouldn't have posted as that's probably not the wave we're interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I shouldn't have posted as that's probably not the wave we're interested in. Actually, if people want snow, we very much want that wave to cut and cut hard and strong, and become a block for the second one, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I shouldn't have posted as that's probably not the wave we're interested in. I do believe a lot of people are missing that....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It is WAY too far out to be waiting on a specific model run and worrying about what exactly the Euro or GFS or CMC shows at this point in terms of details. We are still a few days from that point where we can expect any accuracy and look at specifics. Especially during a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 tom over in PHL thread states at 186 Euro has low on SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 From tombo in the Philly thread: "12z euro went to gfs idea no more cutter...hr 186 storm off sc coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 ..........and the euro moves to the GFS, just a casual 800 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well the Euro looks like the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Interesting that it shifted south. Does it have a closed 500 with enough amplitude to bring it n or is it suppressed not tht it matter at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Interesting that it shifted south. Does it have a closed 500 with enough amplitude to bring it n or is it suppressed not tht it matter at this time range. Takes it off the NC coast and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Takes it off the NC coast and OTS well, it has a storm I guess we remain happy with that as it plays out I have been getting good sleep lately so it would be only fitting to have it interrupted by late night model runs and early mornings model reviews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Also looking like the first system will lay down a good snow pack to our north before the day 7 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Euro's solution suggests a bit more robustness to this not being a cutter. If you'll notice, this weekend's storm does cut and turn into a 50/50 type low on the Euro by ~144hrs. But, the Euro has this northern stream s/w over the Canadian Praries that the GFS does not, and this shunts the 50/50 well OTS. What this Canadian s/w does is pump the ridge over Quebec and that or the transient 50/50 low (apparently) is enough to squash our low and keep it to our south on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not a system to be remembered, IMO. Man, the coastal front that came in the twilight hours was some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen back home. Cabs were going sideways down the main street in my neighborhood and driving into snowbanks the visibility was so low. Streets were becoming impossible to drive on. Says alot when a fully staffed city and state plow force is out. We need to tell the atmosphere here to generate some 'bay fronts'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Ok...maybe you have your days wrong. The 18-19th storm is Day 7-8 now. There's a suggestion of another storm on the 23-24th (Day 12-13), but that's the one that is surpressed on this run. you're right...meant day 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, I'm shocked. Euro bee-lined it right from southern plains and off the sc coast. Right where we want it at this time! lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Interesting that it shifted south. Does it have a closed 500 with enough amplitude to bring it n or is it suppressed not tht it matter at this time range. It is suppressed....I dont have good maps to see the details of the upper levels, but it is 2 discrete systems...both take similar tracks and both fringe us to the south....1st is monday/monday night and the 2nd is TUE night.....the 1st there is no cold air in place....the 2nd has potential with a 996mb loe off Hatteras, but there is not enough amplitude in the west.....then the pattern gets sucky again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It is suppressed....I dont have good maps to see the details of the upper levels, but it is 2 discrete systems...both take similar tracks and both fringe us to the south....1st is monday/monday night and the 2nd is TUE night.....the 1st there is no cold air in place....the 2nd has potential with a 996mb loe off Hatteras, but there is not enough amplitude in the west.....then the pattern gets sucky again Yeah, I didn't notice that the first time around. Euro develops a low on the tail-end of the front (from this weekend's cutter) and rides it up along the southeast coast. This dorks up the following low. After the 19th, GFS and Euro diverge dramatically on our side of the pole, which is to be expected given how differently they handle this potential storm and how the GFS really uses it as a catalyst for an even more dramatic pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good track, need more cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good track, need more cold air That's right. Does not look suppressed to me. Once we get some low pressure as a given, not happened yet but appears probable-likely, then the 1030ish high Must be in play over or just south of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Euro ensembles (from Philly thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good to see the pattern starting to break down in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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