North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 lol...just runs that bowling ball right straight off the coast and keeps it going due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 the D-10/11 storm is a monster...would be nice entry way to a colder period even if it is rain/mixy etc/NW snow versus a cutter.....interesting that 12/10/92 is an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 1030ish highs do DC area a lot of good. It's a bit more n-ne than n-nw but Hudson Bay general locale will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS demonstrates my point about this weekend's cutter and the subsequent 50/50 low very nicely. By all rights, the 18-19th storm should be a cutter on the GFS. The s/w is neutrally tilted back near the TX/OK panhandles! Exactly what I was thinking. 9 times out of 10 a setup like this will cut west. And excellent point about the 50-50 strength and placement. Without it everything goes to shyte. However, there is even a cad signal on the gfs and decent hp placement in se canada. If it did cut it could easily be brief snow - ice - rain. Still winter weather in the air. I like it. Gonna be a fun week. But as a friendly reminder to everyone before my excitement gets in the way...there is a lot that can go wrong. Much moreso than right in this setup. My guess is a track nw w/ jump to the coast. Some snow - ice - rain on the front and then dryslot. Assuming the storm forms at all of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GFS is frigid after the storm that slides off the coast. Though it may cut inland, the pattern looks to change colder significantly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GFS is frigid after the storm that slides off the coast. Though it may cut inland, the pattern looks to change colder significantly after. The PAC basically reverses and we get a huge -EPO....Not sure we can make that a stable feature but it would be a major pattern change from what we have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS demonstrates my point about this weekend's cutter and the subsequent 50/50 low very nicely. By all rights, the 18-19th storm should be a cutter on the GFS. The s/w is neutrally tilted back near the TX/OK panhandles! But this weekend's storm is stronger and produces an even more substantial 50/50 than the overnight runs and that just squashes that storm south and turns it into a bowling bowl cruising through the southern plains and southeast. The 50/50's confluence also reinforces the Canadian high pressure and keeps things cold. The moral of the story, we need one of these cutters to turn into a big 50/50 low. Doesn't have to be this weekend's storm...if the 18-19th storm ends up cutting (as the Euro shows), it could be the 50/50 for the 22-24th storm or the 22-24th storm for the 26-27th storm, etc... With an active pattern, there are ducks on the pond. After your previous post, I was looking for just that. At first I was thinking that the cutter wasn't going to do its job, but the energy transferred off the coast of New England and it bombed as it got up into its 50/50 position. It gets held in place by the high over Greenland, and in turn the subsequent storm gets squashed and pushed east by the old cutter. Really interesting to follow the progression. Thanks for bringing it up earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow........ sub 990 over HAT..... for some reason my qpf map wont load however. GFS has temps above freezing for 192hrs, which is when we're in the deform band. I'm quite comfortable ignoring that with a big low off the coast and 850s that are plenty cold enough. the D-10/11 storm is a monster...would be nice entry way to a colder period even if it is rain/mixy etc/NW snow versus a cutter.....interesting that 12/10/92 is an analog You might need to hit refresh...the 18-19th storm turns into such a big 50/50, it basically turns into a PV and squashes the 22-23rd storm OTS. Would be very cold for Xmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS has temps above freezing for 192hrs, which is when we're in the deform band. I'm quite comfortable ignoring that with a big low off the coast and 850s that are plenty cold enough. You might need to hit refresh...the 18-19th storm turns into such a big 50/50, it basically turns into a PV and squashes the 22-23rd storm OTS. Would be very cold for Xmas though. which is basically what I said...would usher in a colder period....I was referring to the day 10-11 storm when I mentioned cutter vs rain/snow.....yes...suppression after that based on the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 which is basically what I said...would usher in a colder period.... Boy would it. 1040+ hp in sk and a 972+/- lp over nl would = big push of cold and really kick up les. We'll see how this plays but honestly we've been talking about this type of shift in during this period for weeks now. It seems like it may actually happen. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boy would it. 1040+ hp in sk and a 972+/- lp over nl would = big push of cold and really kick up les. We'll see how this plays but honestly we've been talking about this type of shift in during this period for weeks now. It seems like it may actually happen. Good stuff. I mentioned to JI yesterday that 12/24/12/28 looks like a better window for a snowstorm....getting an antecedent cold airmass is pretty important this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 with such a negative AO one had to think this potential existed at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Really nice look upstairs in the lr if you want a period of cold. Precip chances dwindle but who cares and who knows. Cold first and worry about the rest. Some clipperish looking impulses diving out of canada d10 and beyond. Something to consider if the -nao and 50/50 want to squash everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 which is basically what I said...would usher in a colder period....I was referring to the day 10-11 storm when I mentioned cutter vs rain/snow.....yes...suppression after that based on the model Ok...maybe you have your days wrong. The 18-19th storm is Day 7-8 now. There's a suggestion of another storm on the 23-24th (Day 12-13), but that's the one that is surpressed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'll have more to say on the pattern and storm later today once my article is posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Pretty nice consistency on the ensemble mean. Surface reflection is very diffuse/non-existant, but I'll take a good 500mb match at this stage. Top is ensemble mean, bottom is Op. I'm sure this consistency means the Euro will cut this bad-boy to Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GFS ensemble surface depiction is actually pretty good for a system this far out I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 FWIW the 12z CMC crushes everything to the south.....no development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 FWIW the 12z CMC crushes everything to the south.....no development That's the least of our worries. The GFS is far from having me sold that this thing can actually pass south of us. Euro is prob going to show a clear cut cutter or some sort of dying oh valley and jump. If it shows the same or further south than the GFS I will be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 FWIW the 12z CMC crushes everything to the south.....no development I haven't had a chance to look at anything, but with those 5H maps posted, I'm surprised just the CMC is crushing it to our south the "careful what you hope for" saying comes to mind wrt a strong -NAO but, paranoia continues to rule in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's the least of our worries. The GFS is far from having me sold that this thing can actually pass south of us. Euro is prob going to show a clear cut cutter or some sort of dying oh valley and jump. If it shows the same or further south than the GFS I will be shocked. idk Bob, I saw those 5H maps and thought, hmmmm, that blocking high is centered SW of Greenland which is the basis for my post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's the least of our worries. The GFS is far from having me sold that this thing can actually pass south of us. Euro is prob going to show a clear cut cutter or some sort of dying oh valley and jump. If it shows the same or further south than the GFS I will be shocked. I agree. Just letting everyone know. I think its a positive considering the CMC is a lover of a cutter or apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 after looking at the surface maps, verbatim, the GFS is a cold rain just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 after looking at the surface maps, verbatim, the GFS is a cold rain just sayin' I'll take my chances with that low placement/strength in mid/late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 after looking at the surface maps, verbatim, the GFS is a cold rain just sayin' I'll take my chances with that low placement/strength in mid/late December What Millz said. 850s are plenty cold, we're in the deform band of a coastal storm...I'm not going to worry that the GFS shows us in the mid-upper 30s. P.S. Was pointed out in the Philly thread regarding the 6z GFS analog map I posted earlier in this thread and was posted by tombo in the Philly thread as well. Not only is the Boxing Day storm the top analog, but the December 92 Noreaster is also an analog. Both were not particularly friendly to DC-Balt, but I'll say it again I'd take my chances with a KU offshore in late December. And no...not saying this one will be a KU by any stretch. Just good to see the pattern has solid potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 idk Bob, I saw those 5H maps and thought, hmmmm, that blocking high is centered SW of Greenland which is the basis for my post above If the gfs wasn't so robust in closing off 500 so early I would agree but that vort is super strong in the western plains. And then it proceeds to tap the gulf. Like I said before, 9 times out of 10 it goes west. 1 out of 50 or so it gets squashed to the south (just making those odds up because I honestly can't remember it happening. Especially during a -pna). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What Millz said. 850s are plenty cold, we're in the deform band of a coastal storm...I'm not going to worry that the GFS shows us in the mid-upper 30s. P.S. Was pointed out in the Philly thread regarding the 6z GFS analog map I posted earlier in this thread and was posted by tombo in the Philly thread as well. Not only is the Boxing Day storm the top analog, but the December 92 Noreaster is also an analog. Both were not particularly friendly to DC-Balt, but I'll say it again I'd take my chances with a KU offshore in late December. And no...not saying this one will be a KU by any stretch. Just good to see the pattern has solid potential. hey, after what we've been looking at for the past couple weeks, I'll take it in a heartbeat otoh, I don't think the physics allows us to disregard any part of the output from the computer especially since a cold and rainy nor'ester is not out of the question in these parts this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 If the gfs wasn't so robust in closing off 500 so early I would agree but that vort is super strong in the western plains. And then it proceeds to tap the gulf. Like I said before, 9 times out of 10 it goes west. 1 out of 50 or so it gets squashed to the south (just making those odds up because I honestly can't remember it happening. Especially during a -pna). like estimated settlement costs? lol j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm still really liking my Dec 61 analog irt to pattern progression. Week 1: Week 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 hey, after what we've been looking at for the past couple weeks, I'll take it in a heartbeat otoh, I don't think the physics allows us to disregard any part of the output from the computer especially since a cold and rainy nor'ester is not out of the question in these parts this time of year Do you have an example of a sub 990 low off Ocean City with a 1030 high in a good spot that resulted as cold rain entirely for us in late December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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