Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It is interesting how the relatively sudden "nicer" look on the models coincides with a pretty strong MJO signal moving into oct 1 and forecast to move solidly into oct 2 without fizzling. GFS Ens: Euro Ens: Ukmet Ens: All 3 major model ens are basically showing the same thing. I probably only know enough to be dangerous with the MJO but I'm pretty sure the shift towards a relatively favorable pac is associated with the shift in tropics. Seems logical at the very least. It's also encouraging to see the good clustering of the ens. Definitely showing some confidence that we get a decent mjo phase working in our favor because what is being shown isn't weak or passing. Looks like a good move to phase 1 and then a trek towards phase 2. Merry Xmas! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 And to help visualize why we like 8-1-2 so much on the MJO, here's the temp anom composites for DJF for our favorite 3 phases: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yes Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I like where the pattern seems to be heading, even if it is taking longer then we would like. I think because of the crappy default state of the pacific we can rule out a blockbuster winter, BUT I think with the abundance of cold available and the favorable AO/NAO state it is inevitable we will eventually get periods when the Pacific pattern relaxes and during those times... due to the other two factors the pattern could become loaded for bear around here. It might be a season where most of the winter is blah...but when the pattern does become favorable it produces. It looks like we may be seeing signs of such a period coming up late in December into January. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Whoa baby... All normal disclaimers apply. That and the euro ens mean look certainly is the best look we've seen this winter. Looks like I'll have a more interesting article tomorrow than the last several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well, at the very least it's hard to discount the fact that the major global ens agree on a west based -nao in the 12-20 - 26 timeframe. AO going down the same time and PNA relaxing. Even pointing towards a neutral to slightly positive pna but I have serious doubts on that. It's only 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 No comments about the raging blizzard the GFS is advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 300 hour threats ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 192 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 192 hours? If the Euro shows it I might start to believe it, but probably just the GFS se bias ... Probably will be an Apps Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 192 hours? 8 days and the precip isn't here yet. No skill. Assuming it were three days away that's a really busy 500 pattern. There seems to be a signal for a storm somewhere around there but that's about all you can take from it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's all I was taking from it. It's been honking on this time frame for several days. If the euro jumps on board I guess we can discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 192 hours? Heh, sorry, wasn't intentionally trying to be a jerk (just come by it naturally...). I didn't even think to look in that timeframe last night to see what you were talking about, assumed given the general pessimism over this current pattern, it must be further in the future than that. In any event, the 6z still shows a storm in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Very respectable GFS ensemble signal for a storm in the 180-204hr timeframe. 0z on top and 6z on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i believe the euro is way to west and strong with the storm....i think future runs will show it as the GFS. Looks like we will see snow in the dec 20-Dec 30 time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 i believe the euro is way to west and strong with the storm....i think future runs will show it as the GFS. Looks like we will see snow in the dec 20-Dec 30 time frame I like your chances in leesburg for something in that timeframe for sure. Close in to the cities, would still think more wet than white, but maybe finally flakes in the air for all of us for a time at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Euro is showing a cutter in this time frame, but the timing is a bit different than the GFS and yesterday the Euro had it on the coastal plain. Hoping for an all-snow event is setting yourself up for disappointment right now IMO, but a rain-to-snow or snow-to-rain is certainly on the table. And even if this one whiffs, the pattern looks stormier for at least the next week afterwards taking us to near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boxing Day storm 2010 is the top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I sure wish we weren't talking about day 8+. I looked at all the 500 maps and ran the loops in the pac. Pretty short wavelengths were dealing with. Lower heights just right in the pac, tough approaching the west coast that creates a "little" area of ridging in the intermountain west and then a digging shortwave in front. A little change in placement will go a long way further down the line in the solution (nice way of saying a lot can go wrong). Looks like it's pretty much up to the -nao to keep the strong vort to our south after it closes. 6z closes h5 west of the ms river but the track stays south of us. Pretty good blocking necessary. Luckily we've seen a lot of good blocking showing up lately in the lr. We're gonna need it. Still looks like quite a bit can go wrong here but it's nice to see some storminess regardless. Much is going to change over the next week. Hold on to your seat and fasten your belt (and take your prozac) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Very respectable GFS ensemble signal for a storm in the 180-204hr timeframe. 0z on top and 6z on the bottom. No high to the northwest, will be warm and wet or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 No high to the northwest, will be warm and wet or nothing at all. The Op shows a high in Ontario/Quebec and a bit of a 50/50 low, which is why it shows a rain-to-snow event. Ensemble mean doesn't really have either, so it's warm/wet as you say. A lot depends on this weekend's cutter. We want to root for that thing to be a beast and get itself tucked up underneath the NAO block to set up some nice confluence so we can get some cold air drained in. A weak low this weekend lowers our chances at any frozen precip significantly. Given this (apparently) active pattern that's setting up, we need one storm to cut and deepen so it can be our 50/50 for the follow up low. Maybe it doesn't matter if it's this one or not, since we might get a few chances at the table before our money runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I very much doubt we'll get snow of any note with the first sys. That comes when I'm in FL probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Boxing Day storm 2010 is the top analog. Not a system to be remembered, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, 12z isn't done yet but it's closing off h5 over the ok/nb border. That better be one heck of a block or we're wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Not a system to be remembered, IMO. Yeah, we got screwed no doubt. But, I'll take my chances with a KU storm off of Ocean City 10 times out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well, 12z isn't done yet but it's closing off h5 over the ok/nb border. That better be one heck of a block or we're wet. Don't know the time you're looking at, but about a week from now looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don't know the time you're looking at, but about a week from now looks interesting. Wow that must have been one hell of a block on the 12z GFS. The storm almost moved due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS demonstrates my point about this weekend's cutter and the subsequent 50/50 low very nicely. By all rights, the 18-19th storm should be a cutter on the GFS. The s/w is neutrally tilted back near the TX/OK panhandles! But this weekend's storm is stronger and produces an even more substantial 50/50 than the overnight runs and that just squashes that storm south and turns it into a bowling bowl cruising through the southern plains and southeast. The 50/50's confluence also reinforces the Canadian high pressure and keeps things cold. The moral of the story, we need one of these cutters to turn into a big 50/50 low. Doesn't have to be this weekend's storm...if the 18-19th storm ends up cutting (as the Euro shows), it could be the 50/50 for the 22-24th storm or the 22-24th storm for the 26-27th storm, etc... With an active pattern, there are ducks on the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Don't know the time you're looking at, but about a week from now looks interesting. Well, it's a hit on this run. I was just going off the old rule of thumb. When h5 closes west of the ms river we get wet or a miller b. Block is strong and cutter turns into our 50-50. Pretty nice h5 track on this run. It would be a pretty dynamic storm. Kinda classic looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wow........ sub 990 over HAT..... for some reason my qpf map wont load however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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