Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 FYI - Euro has a 4-8" snowstorm day 10 for north and west of DC - HGR/MRB and maybe even JYO/IAD.......DC itself has precip type issues for some of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 FYI - Euro has a 4-8" snowstorm day 10 for north and west of DC - HGR/MRB and maybe even JYO/IAD.......DC itself has precip type issues for some of the storm... Is that 4-8 after the low hits the coast? Hard to tell with the 24 hour jumps (and maybe you have the 228 hr) but looking at the 500's and the placement of the ULL I would wonder if there would be precip issues initially for most south of central/southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 06 GFS op really dumps the cold air deep into the plains and then moves it eastward in the long range. The setup would suggest the potential for some overrunning events for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 FYI - Euro has a 4-8" snowstorm day 10 for north and west of DC - HGR/MRB and maybe even JYO/IAD.......DC itself has precip type issues for some of the storm... Finally something interesting ... The storm actually starts to develop late day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Finally something interesting ... The storm actually starts to develop late day 8 not bad down here, less qpf-- but infers a snow/mix event down here. Only h85 is really close to 0. the SkewT in IAD looks good at 228. Solid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Let it begin. Overnight ensemble runs looked the best I've seen in awhile in the long range. But, they've been very inconsistent lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Let it begin. Overnight ensemble runs looked the best I've seen in awhile in the long range. But, they've been very inconsistent lately. What a difference a day makes in Model land. It's encouraging that it's day eight and not day 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looks as if the 06 GFS wants to split the polar vortex. Looking over previous runs, while i did see occasional hints of this there was nothing as pronounced as this. I also saw that the 00 Euro has a 180 degree shift from the poleward wind direction at 10mb. Not an expert by any means but doesn't that suggest an ongoing vortex split as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Gotta like some of the stuff showing up on the models, but what I like is they seem to be settling down a little. They've been pretty wild this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 this doesn't prove anything yet, but like I said in the other thread, this has not felt like the fall of a lousy winter despite what the models were showing 2 days ago everything was torch, torch, torch and now we see the models suggest it won't be so bad even if DEC doesn't come through, JAN-FEB look very promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 FYI - Euro has a 4-8" snowstorm day 10 for north and west of DC - HGR/MRB and maybe even JYO/IAD.......DC itself has precip type issues for some of the storm... that looks sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The gefs ens mean gets rid of the big negative anomaly over Ak which is a good thing but still has the ridge far enough west to dump the cold air into the plains while keeping our heights above normal at 240hrs which would suggest lows still go to our north thru the 10 day period so we may be normalish in terms of temps as it cools behind fronts but would warm up prior to any precip. The euro has the ridge in the pac far enough west that it is rare to get a low to go to our south without some type fo strong low near nova scotia where it actually is showing above normal heights so despite the negative noa look, it think we'll have to wait until after the 14th before having much chance for a storm. The pattern is better but is by no means a good one yet for dc getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Gotta like some of the stuff showing up on the models, but what I like is they seem to be settling down a little. They've been pretty wild this week. You've been consistent in mentioning the models' inconsistency. I completely agree with you, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 ENSO is as neutral as it gets....some other factor needs to take control...hopefully the NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ENSO is as neutral as it gets....some other factor needs to take control...hopefully the NAO Looks like the GLAAM is pretty high and mountain torque is spiking which can have an impact on the AO and PNA pattern so we may be getting some help towards a better pattern. Still not optimal but by the 3rd week of Dec, maybe not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Wow...even the GFS ensemble mean suggests the Op's idea (6z and 12z) of sitting the PV over southeast Canada is not out-to-lunch. Amazing change from the last few days. If that happens, we might erase the first week's big positive depatures pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 12z Euro still has a 4-7" snowstorm next Monday night.....dicey in immediate DC....track better than last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12z Euro still has a 4-7" snowstorm next Monday night.....dicey in immediate DC....track better than last night... I notice on the GFS ens members that it too has the signal for a storm then. It has it more of a cutter. Let's hope the Euro is on to something here. Good to see it spitting out some consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 I notice on the GFS ens members that it too has the signal for a storm then. It has it more of a cutter. Let's hope the Euro is on to something here. Good to see it spitting out some consistent runs. which makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 which makes more sense It does make more sense but the euro has had something for two straight runs. The GEFS ens mean actually has is way different for the same time period. It will be interesting to see what the euro ens mean does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I notice on the GFS ens members that it too has the signal for a storm then. It has it more of a cutter. Let's hope the Euro is on to something here. Good to see it spitting out some consistent runs. For a novice, what constitutes a signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 For a novice, what constitutes a signal? I'm worse than a novice, but I was referring to the fact that most of the GFS ens members have a storm in that time frame, but they are cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The fact that there's not been a post here in 16 hours says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The fact that there's not been a post here in 16 hours says it all. I don't think that is the case. I think the MA has a lot of seasoned people that know when to get excited and when to calmly wait to see it come around or go away. In this case I think they are all waiting with anticipation of good things to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 You're reading into nothing. Saturday night is not a prime posting period. Overnight model runs still show the pattern change on schedule. Euro took away the silly Day 9-10 snow threat, but we all knew it would be an inland runner in that pattern anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 You're reading into nothing. Saturday night is not a prime posting period. Overnight model runs still show the pattern change on schedule. Euro took away the silly Day 9-10 snow threat, but we all knew it would be an inland runner in that pattern anyway. Good news. I thought the ens runs still looked about the same myself, and the AO/NAO forecasts still looked about the same as well. We just need a legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I still don't think the pattern is very good for snow through the 14th or 15th at the very earliest as any strong lows still look like they would cut based on the position of the ridge in the pacific (which is getting better) and how far east the NAO is located (not optimal for us). Our only hope before the 15 is from some weak impulse that comes on the tail of a front. Temps still look to be near normal to slightly above depending on which GEFS run you look at. The euro looks like the temps would average around the normal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I still don't think the pattern is very good for snow through the 14th or 15th at the very earliest as any strong lows still look like they would cut based on the position of the ridge in the pacific (which is getting better) and how far east the NAO is located (not optimal for us). Our only hope before the 15 is from some weak impulse that comes on the tail of a front. Temps still look to be near normal to slightly above depending on which GEFS run you look at. The euro looks like the temps would average around the normal for this time of year. I'll gladly take a normal DEC after last year if we're lucky, we might see some snow by Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I'll gladly take a normal DEC after last year if we're lucky, we might see some snow by Christmas I would Gladly take it.... Not to sound greedy just to have some flakes to play with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiOrDie Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Although some are going hog wild for bitter cold for the second half of December, DT being one, until we see a clear sign of a west based NAO/Greenland block showing up in the ECMWF, I'm not sold on the idea even with a lot of frigid air in Canada to tap. Looking more like a broad trough and little amplitude in the upper flow...more zonal. Looks like getting a ridge to set up along the west coast is going to be tough also, making a west based -NAO all the more important. Mainly I'm talking about the Mid-Atlantic. Based upon the NAEFS, ECMWF, ECMWF Ensembles, GFS, GFS Ensembles, forecasting a very cold setup by mid and late December seems to be a fringe solution at this point. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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