Jon Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Close call on the 0z GFS 108-156...and several short waves moving through this run, active pattern we're about to be in for the end of December? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Holy QPF batman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Just get us in an active pattern for the end of Dec and I'll take our chances with the timing of cold. I like what I'm seeing in the model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Close call on the 0z GFS 108-156...and several short waves moving through this run, active pattern we're about to be in for the end of December? hmm Yeah, we have to get the pattern more active to have a chance at anything. IT doesn't matter if the cold hair locks in all winter if there are no systems coming our way. It doesn't look like the cold is going to lock in for long at all, though, because the Pacific trough is just too strong. But if we can get get it just cold enough for long enough when a good system comes our way, we're in business. I think this winter might be all or nothing. One huge storm or nothing at all. 12/22 is looking a little interesting. Too bad it is two weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah, we have to get the pattern more active to have a chance at anything. IT doesn't matter if the cold hair locks in all winter if there are no systems coming our way. It doesn't look like the cold is going to lock in for long at all, though, because the Pacific trough is just too strong. But if we can get get it just cold enough for long enough when a good system comes our way, we're in business. I think this winter might be all or nothing. One huge storm or nothing at all. 12/22 is looking a little interesting. Too bad it is two weeks out. I do not understand the philosophy that "cold air is wasted without an IP event - so we'd rather not have it". I would hope we realize the necessity of a cold season. It plays a key role in the air quality of Spring and Summer. It is integral in quelling agricultural war from destructive pests/insects. We need it to be cold - this past Spring and Summer are amplified examples as to why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I do not understand the philosophy that "cold air is wasted without an IP event - so we'd rather not have it". I would hope we realize the necessity of a cold season. It plays a key role in the air quality of Spring and Summer. It is integral in quelling agricultural war from destructive pests/insects. We need it to be cold - this past Spring and Summer are amplified examples as to why. Well, if it's cold and no snow with it, it is a waste. I hate the cold unless it is snowing. Otherwise, it's just miserable and boring. If it's not going to snow, I'd rather have sunny and warmth. I know you can't have the snow without the cold, but if there is no chance of snow with it, I'd rather not have the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well, if it's cold and no snow with it, it is a waste. I hate the cold unless it is snowing. Otherwise, it's just miserable and boring. If it's not going to snow, I'd rather have sunny and warmth. I know you can't have the snow without the cold, but if there is no chance of snow with it, I'd rather not have the cold. Did you miss the point all together? Or do you just not care? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Did you miss the point all together? Or do you just not care? I just don't care. I hate the cold unless it is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I just don't care. I hate the cold unless it is snowing. **Edited because I can** Fair enough. I suppose our health and need for food can take a back seat to you and that awful, itchy, uncomfortable jacket you'd have to wear. I'm kidding. Some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well, the 12Z GFS says no rain through 180...outside of a shower or two. So much for the stormy pattern, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well, the 12Z GFS says no rain through 180...outside of a shower or two. So much for the stormy pattern, I guess. Wasn't the stormy pattern advertised for after 200h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 **Edited because I can** Fair enough. I suppose our health and need for food can take a back seat to you and that awful, itchy, uncomfortable jacket you'd have to wear. I'm kidding. Some. I know all weather is important. That doesn't mean I have to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well, the 12Z GFS says no rain through 180...outside of a shower or two. So much for the stormy pattern, I guess. We'll need to see what the subsequent runs come up with, but really - at this point - we might find more consistency in cave drawings or crop circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 We'll need to see what the subsequent runs come up with, but really - at this point - we might find more consistency in cave drawings or crop circles. They seem about as good as long range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Wasn't the stormy pattern advertised for after 200h? Yep 200 hrs ago. Seems to have been pushed back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It's apparent what is happening here: The Pacific is making war with some sort of blocking beast - who by the way is obviously preoccupied and cannot fight back. Meanwhile, Bigfoots are corralling humans who are burning their hopes on a spit. I can only assume the cold has driven the 'Squatches out of the PNW. That's a pretty good LR forecast in my opinion. We'll just have to wait and see if the Bigfoots are a good thing or a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 We'll need to see what the subsequent runs come up with, but really - at this point - we might find more consistency in cave drawings or crop circles. Yeah, the only consistency is still no winter for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 252 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm ahead of the game. I already do #9 on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 252 Hours Fantasy storm seems to showing up a few days sooner now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It's apparent what is happening here: The Pacific is making war with some sort of blocking beast - who by the way is obviously preoccupied and cannot fight back. Meanwhile, Bigfoots are corralling humans who are burning their hopes on a spit. I can only assume the cold has driven the 'Squatches out of the PNW. That's a pretty good LR forecast in my opinion. We'll just have to wait and see if the Bigfoots are a good thing or a bad thing. First rate analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 First rate analysis. It's just really, really old school "modelology". I've decided to punt December as well. Blocking has no shot as long as the Pacific is getting help from those Independence Day alien ships. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 So, did no one see the Pacific as being a problem before winter started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 So, did no one see the Pacific as being a problem before winter started? I would venture that it may not have appeared to be *as big* of a problem. In the long run, it still does not appear to be *as big* of a problem as it was last year. But it will undoubtedly have influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 So, did no one see the Pacific as being a problem before winter started? Almost everyone thought ENSO would have a positive influence of some sorts but the -PDO is a killer. I think GaWx had concerns about the PDO back early on but was hoping ENSO would be helping and it's not. It's actually neutral negative now, which blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Kind of shows you whatever will happen will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 So, did no one see the Pacific as being a problem before winter started? I would venture that it may not have appeared to be *as big* of a problem. In the long run, it still does not appear to be *as big* of a problem as it was last year. But it will undoubtedly have influence. As Allan pointed out to be over Twitter, 2010-2011 lacked +PNA....so we still don't know how much of a factor it will be if it never really gets there. I still think blocking is more of a deal breaker...I'd take a -NAO over a +PNA any day. I asked him if worrying about the +PNA so much vs the -NAO is a big deal, something along those lines. Some don't see a +PNA and cancel winter, I just don't see that completely. What we're currently seeing is a +PNA trying to evolve, whether it be neutral or + but too far away from the west coast, it's at least present in some form on the LR models. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx @_jwall Lack of +PNA does mean less chance of cross-polar flow and tap to cold air in NW Canada/Pole. But 2010-11 lacked +PNA. Still cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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