burgertime Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The 12Z Goofy looks like absolute doggy doo doo late next week if your perspective is to want cold. Hold your noses, folks, it is El Stinkeroo!! Get your gas masks out. After around 200 though it looks great and a big storm is near miss of NC/SC. After that it goes back to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I just hope it feels like winter when we get to Christmas. I just hope it feels like winter at some point during winter. Better odds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yes looking froward to cold weather !! Or at least normal temps I just hope it feels like winter at some point during winter. Better odds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looking forward to at least a fantasy storm for the Southeast. If you can't get those, I think that tells you the overall pattern's not right for winter weather in the SE. When the fantasy storms start popping up, then at least we know we're on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Per Meteostar, the 12Z Goofy doesn't even get KATL down to freezing the entire run. That's a rarity for any Dec. Goofy run. There's nothing good to say about this run for those wanting SE US cold. Hopefully, it isn't a sign of model consensus to come. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looking forward to at least a fantasy storm for the Southeast. If you can't get those, I think that tells you the overall pattern's not right for winter weather in the SE. When the fantasy storms start popping up, then at least we know we're on the right track. Yes, at least that's telling us the pattern is right for something to possibly happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Per Meteostar, the 12Z Goofy doesn't even get KATL down to freezing the entire run. That's a rarity for any Dec. Goofy run. There's nothing good to say about this run for those wanting SE US cold. Hopefully, it isn't a sign of model consensus to come. Next! If the 12z GFS comes to fruition we can atleast stop blaming the pacific, because everything was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Per Meteostar, the 12Z Goofy doesn't even get KATL down to freezing the entire run. That's a rarity for any Dec. Goofy run. There's nothing good to say about this run for those wanting SE US cold. Hopefully, it isn't a sign of model consensus to come. Next! Correction: It does get KATL down to 31 on 12/12. Apologies requested. Now I'm excited!! ,NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If the 12z GFS comes to fruition we can atleast stop blaming the pacific, because everything was bad. Don't sweat it, 12z GFS had feed back problems! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Don't sweat it, 12z GFS had feed back problems! Lol Well the GEFS looks nothing like the OP run, the GEFS has a fairly stable -NAO in the mid-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 1) 12Z GEFS: looked better and actually pretty good in 11-15. 2) 12Z Doc: still no sign of +PNA pattern; actually, looks butt ugly from that perspective. Ugly at day 10. I hope you didn't put away your gas masks. P.U.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 1) 12Z GEFS: looked better and actually pretty good in 11-15. 2) 12Z Doc: still no sign of +PNA pattern; actually, looks butt ugly from that perspective. Ugly at day 10. I hope you didn't put away your gas masks. P.U.! Keep hope alive! Maybe the Euro Ensembles will paint a better picture. You know we are heading for a pattern change when even the Ensembles are all over the place from run-to-run. Let's see how things are shaping up 10 days from now. Maybe there will be some semblance of stability in the long range modeling and we won't be throwing out so many different (crappy) options. I think the best and worst part of following winter weather in the SE is not really knowing what will happen. Just because long term models and forcasters show a good or bad pattern doesn't mean that's what will actually happen. It only takes one good rogue storm to make a winter wonderful and some of our coldest patterns never produce snow. I'm still waiting and seeing. It looks pretty "normal" to me. Keep stepping down until we get close to the new year and we will probably get our storm within the month of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 This is the best I can do...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Shoot, Larry, we've got a wind from the sw and over 2 inches of rain falling out there in Goofgiggle....the only thing that's a bit off is the +12 850's. I think that's a marvy map.... one I hope verifies. This fascination with cold you are exhibiting, might be stemming from the demise of the weak NIno, coupled with frozen milk syndrome. I need you to step away from the ice cream, and call a trusted relative, lol, 'cause with our luck it'll be in the teens and sunny when that day arrives, and you won't know what to do with the cold because there's no rain. I am fervently wishing for a nice strong Cad about that time. 2 inches into low 30's...possibiles galore, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Electrifying new way to potentially predict tornado touchdowns Tornadoes are being betrayed by their lightning in a way that could help save lives, according to researchers who made an accidental discovery. Last summer, geophysicist Benjamin Barnum of Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland detected a previously unknown electrical signal generated by lightning activity that foreshadowed a tornado touchdown. This electrical signal could potentially be used with existing tornado prediction methods to improve the early warning system. Barnum presented a poster of the discovery Tuesday at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting. On June 1, 2012, a strong thunderstorm blew over the Washington, D.C., area, producing several tornadoes. That evening, Barnum and other scientists were running tests on lightning detectors when a tornado funnel formed just 10 miles away. “It was a fortuitous bit of luck that this tornado touched down so close to where we were running tests,” said Barnum. About 15 minutes before the tornado touched down, Barnum’s detectors measured a huge increase in lightning activity in the direction where the tornado was developing. Similar storms without tornadoes normally produce 300 to 600 in-cloud lightning strikes per minute, but the detectors were reporting 1,037 strikes per minute in the forming tornado’s vicinity. After the tornado touched down, the lightning strike count rapidly dropped. In a typical thunder cloud, there is a layer of positive electrical charge at the top of the cloud and a layer of negative charge at the bottom. When a tornado starts to form, the cloud is compressed and the two charged layers are forced closer together. This compaction causes rapid discharges in the form of in-cloud lightning, Barnum said. While scientists had already known that lightning strikes can accompany developing tornadoes, one of Barnum’s detectors measured a surprising change in the nearby electric field not usually associated with the typical increased lightning activity. As the tornado formed and the lightning strikes became more frequent, the electric field’s strength began jumping up and down about once every second. As soon as the tornado touched down and lightning rate dropped off, the electric field stabilized and returned to normal. Though further research is needed, devices that detect these electric field changes could potentially be deployed alongside existing tornado warning systems, Barnum said. “This could be one more tool helping to give locations and early warnings of tornadoes,” he said. “If you put these things in an array alongside existing detectors, you could potentially help more people know that tornado activity is imminent.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 This winter is about as worse as last year. The snowpack stops right at the US border. LOL! Oh well... Might as well enjoy this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 ^ Snow cover comes roaring down on the GFS...by early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Man, H5 on the 18Z GFS looks really crazy through the LR. It brings the cold for sure. It's just a chaotic pattern with tons of blocking. Why oh why can't patterns similar to that ever make it into the medium/short-term/now range? Is it just physically impossible for the atmosphere to really do such things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Man, H5 on the 18Z GFS looks really crazy through the LR. It brings the cold for sure. It's just a chaotic pattern with tons of blocking. Why oh why can't patterns similar to that ever make it into the medium/short-term/now range? Is it just physically impossible for the atmosphere to really do such things? Probably. It sure seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Man, H5 on the 18Z GFS looks really crazy through the LR. It brings the cold for sure. It's just a chaotic pattern with tons of blocking. Why oh why can't patterns similar to that ever make it into the medium/short-term/now range? Is it just physically impossible for the atmosphere to really do such things? If only the PV hadn't shifted to her exact opposite side of where we are, I would guess if it did we would be in for a 2011/2012 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 If only the PV hadn't shifted to her exact opposite side of where we are, I would guess if it did we would be in for a 2011/2012 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 hour 264 300+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Here you go Wilkie. GFS long range: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/276837013406224384/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Here you go Wilkie. GFS long range: http://twitter.com/R...6224384/photo/1 :sled: :sled: :sled: :sled: You have posted a message with more emoticons than this community allows. Please reduce the number of emoticons you've added to the message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 This winter is about as worse as last year. The snowpack stops right at the US border. LOL! Oh well... Might as well enjoy this crap. I never thought we would be sitting here wishing the snow cover would improve to 2011 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It's only 384 hours out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 It's only 384 hours out!!! Gets going 48 hours before that from Louisiana to Oklahoma. Write that down. Book it. If its lost tonight I might cliff dive here in the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Anybody try these yet? meh'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I never thought we would be sitting here wishing the snow cover would improve to 2011 levels. Actually the snow is much better and deeper in Canada. At this time last year, in Canada, the snow cover wasn't all that great, and if you recall what little snow got put down in December of 2011 south of the US quickly melted anyway. More snow north of the border means that the air that gets into Canada will modify less, if at all. It means that the energy and moisture is there right now, but it's concentrated. I'd say it's a good sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Strip of snow in Texas...in 84 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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