metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Nope...not upset and I hope no one else thought I was upset...I was just agreeing with the previous poster...there is a difference between wishcasting and saying what a model actually shows. There is a fine line between the two. I have not seen one run that actually phased the two streams. That is exactly what the poster is talking about. It just seems as though everyone is wishcasting. Oh, if we just had a phase, things would look different...etc. This run was so close to a phase, etc. I wish I had a dime for every time I have heard that. Again, I am not upset. I enjoy reading this board and this thread and wish I had more time to post but I don't. I hope there are no hard feelings. Back on topic. Exactly what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 same goes here. I don't know much and don't say much, I do more reading of the experts. When I do say something out of pure innocents I've had folks come back with calm down or some say be patient when I by no means meant anything by what I said except that I was one that got excited but I pay the consequence when there is no storm. This is part of this site to get excited if you want to, to have hope. Heck guys if we can talk about the weather on here we just as well quit. Gee this is a weather site for everyone not just experts, of which we all do appreciate reading those expert opinions, but I also enjoy reading the non experts opinion also. Lets everyone chill. To the bolded, I admit that was me. I was mainly joking when I did that. I like to have a little fun even if we are not getting any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Now that I am in my 60s I no longer do that. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Now that I am in my twenties I no longer do that. Is that in doggie years. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 How do you differentiate between "wishcasting" and people "just discussing the weather"? First 2-3 days out is a 3 day forecast. Second, Models have been showing some snow falling in NC as well as the ensembles. Third, the CMC was very reliable back in 09-10 and for Dec10. I know, I posted it many times. In fact in scored a coup back in Jan of 2010 when it was the only model not showing a "Cuba diver". And fourth, I don't see anyone "wishcasting a phase", It's a weather board people discuss the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Mods can delete this because we should be talking about the 18z runs at this time of day - but boy howdy have I learned my lesson. I will keep my big trap shut when I don't have something to add about the pattern or the models, I can't believe the ripple effects of what I said earlier are still going. For that jburns, I truly am sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Cool... Can folks just drag this disco over to the banter thread please ? All greats points, but it would be nice to keep this disco out of the jan pattern and storm discussion thread . I know we have have a fever and I assume the only prescription is more phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Mods can delete this because we should be talking about the 18z runs at this time of day - but boy howdy have I learned my lesson. I will keep my big trap shut when I don't have something to add about the pattern or the models, I can't believe the ripple effects of what I said earlier are still going. For that jburns, I truly am sorry! Mods not here. Probably best to wait till they come back. I have reported a lot. Besides, not a whole lot to talk about near term. Winter is just getting started in the Carolinas folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 To the bolded, I admit that was me. I was mainly joking when I did that. I like to have a little fun even if we are not getting any snow. no problem franklinwx I guess we're all a little disappointed some of these storms haven't worked out. no harm buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I know. There needs to be a Gulf Coast region. Florida is def. the odd man out here. Maybe this could create some popularity with the hurricane season on this board. Surprisingly there are no members in AL/MS and only 2 active in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Don't you know how to read? That is clearly NOT what the poster was saying at all..."When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and NO model is showing any snow, why discuss it?" "You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were BARELY showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble." "It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice." I agree with this assessment 10000 %. I haven't seen one model run that was even CLOSE to a phase regardless of what anyone else has to say. I have been watching models for years and know exactly what a phase looks like and this does NOT look like a phase at all. If anything, the pattern clearly supports a suppressed, cold frontal passage with a POSSIBLE weak area of low pressure that rides up the front and that is IT. Maybe things will look better later in the month, but this is NOT the storm to get even the slightest bit excited about. Sorry. This is a great example of what we were discussing earlier. I have no idea if ncwinterwxman is angry or not, but it sounds like it. And for what reason? Because people were talking about a possible winter storm more than 5 days out. On a weather board. I might be misinterpreting though. Either way, I hope Brandon doesn't find out that he doesn't know what a phase looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Nope...not upset and I hope no one else thought I was upset...I was just agreeing with the previous poster...there is a difference between wishcasting and saying what a model actually shows. There is a fine line between the two. I have not seen one run that actually phased the two streams. That is exactly what the poster is talking about. It just seems as though everyone is wishcasting. Oh, if we just had a phase, things would look different...etc. This run was so close to a phase, etc. I wish I had a dime for every time I have heard that. Again, I am not upset. I enjoy reading this board and this thread and wish I had more time to post but I don't. I hope there are no hard feelings. Back on topic. No hard feelings at all on this end. We were talking about writing and interpreting in the other thread and this was a good example of me misinterpreting your sentiment. How do you differentiate between "wishcasting" and people "just discussing the weather"? I was going to ask you this when you posted it earlier. I guess I'm not clear on where the line is between discussing the potential, and for this event or non-event, there absolutely has been potential, vs. wishcasting. I would call taking a guaranteed rainstorm and repeating over and over that it was going to be a snowstorm wishcasting. But that's not the case with this event. Edit: Moved these posts over from the Jan. thread since it's banter stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Mods can delete this because we should be talking about the 18z runs at this time of day - but boy howdy have I learned my lesson. I will keep my big trap shut when I don't have something to add about the pattern or the models, I can't believe the ripple effects of what I said earlier are still going. For that jburns, I truly am sorry! No problem. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's still 2012, so I'll post in here. Don't you know how to read? That is clearly NOT what the poster was saying at all..."When you are discussing a potential snow event 5+ days out and NO model is showing any snow, why discuss it?" "You guys got excited because 2 runs of the GFS were BARELY showing snow and people were making 4-8 inch snow totals because of a GFS ensemble." "It just seems with this storm that you all were wishcasting a phase and other features that would support snow and ice." I agree with this assessment 10000 %. I haven't seen one model run that was even CLOSE to a phase regardless of what anyone else has to say. I have been watching models for years and know exactly what a phase looks like and this does NOT look like a phase at all. If anything, the pattern clearly supports a suppressed, cold frontal passage with a POSSIBLE weak area of low pressure that rides up the front and that is IT. Maybe things will look better later in the month, but this is NOT the storm to get even the slightest bit excited about. Sorry. If agreeing with something fully is 100%, how can you agree 10000%? Cool... Can folks just drag this disco over to the banter thread please ? All greats points, but it would be nice to keep this disco out of the jan pattern and storm discussion thread . I know we have have a fever and I assume the only prescription is more phasing Great reference, sir!! Can we have gold-plated phasing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Well, I would have to say that I whole-heartedly agree with DT's assessment that was posted earlier in here...the lack of a kicker to kick this disturbance to the north and east is the main problem. That was it. That was the only reason this could have been a decent event in the first place in my view for the central part of the state. In addition, the lack of any model support for any phasing whatsoever at this point is leading me to believe that the phasing will not occur. Not saying it can't because I have seen it happen before inside 72 hours but the chances of it occurring are getting smaller and smaller. Fair enough and chances are it won't work out unless the models are severely misrepresenting a lot of the big pieces of the puzzle. Good post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Everyone better chill out on the arguing....it's only a matter of time until Lookout comes in here and brings the hammer down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 No arguing going on...just good discussion Everyone better chill out on the arguing....it's only a matter of time until Lookout comes in here and brings the hammer down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wow. When did this place turn into a weather channel-type forum? I can't ever remember this subforum being so snarky. It's about time to tighten things up around here and I hope it happens soon. Simply put, if you can't handle people speculating about weather on a weather board, you need to be doing something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Am I just confused on what wishcasting is? I thought it was when you say, "check out the phase at hr 84" and there is no phase at all. Or saying, "this thing is def. phasing at hr 120...it's only out to 12 but I just know it". Can we please define what wishcasting is. Saying, "this has the potential to phase if the northern stream energy slows down"....how is that wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Wow. When did this place turn into a weather channel-type forum? I can't ever remember this subforum being so snarky. It's about time to tighten things up around here and I hope it happens soon. Simply put, if you can't handle people speculating about weather on a weather board, you need to be doing something else. And I haven't even been posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Have you not realized that when people refer to cold for the SE they mean NC, NE GA, and SC. We are left out down here. And Virginia, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Am I just confused on what wishcasting is? I thought it was when you say, "check out the phase at hr 84" and there is no phase at all. Or saying, "this thing is def. phasing at hr 120...it's only out to 12 but I just know it". Can we please define what wishcasting is. Saying, "this has the potential to phase if the northern stream energy slows down"....how is that wishcasting? Up to this point, it has been defined largely as anything someone deems "optimistic". Apparently, being optimistic about what could happen equates to "far reaching", "silly", "nonsense"... ergo - wishcasting. It's okay though. Like with every cultural trend before now, cynicism will lose out to something new. If you do happen to be one of those people living under the unfortunate impression that you gain some sort of likable advantage by being a cynic, well... you have no soul - like gingers, except with a tan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Oh, excuse me for not being optimistic There is a difference between being optimistic when there is a legitimate threat and being optimistic when there is not a genuine threat. Up to this point, it has been defined largely as anything someone deems "optimistic". Apparently, being optimistic about what could happen equates to "far reaching", "silly", "nonsense"... ergo - wishcasting. It's okay though. Like with every cultural trend before now, cynicism will lose out to something new. If you do happen to be one of those people living under the unfortunate impression that you gain some sort of likable advantage by being a cynic, well... you have no soul - like gingers, except with a tan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Oh, excuse me for not being optimistic There is a difference between being optimistic when there is a legitimate threat and being optimistic when there is not a genuine threat. Nice touch there. Now, aside from the fact that I was answering burger, you felt the need to assume it was about you. Where does that come from? Truthfully, I have only been on tonight fairly recently, and have not made your acquaintance...am I to presume you may have been involved with some sort of disagreements today? Because for you to introduce yourself to me this way is bollocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I believe there shouldnt be another storm thread until we have a strong signal at 168 hours. By strong signal, I mean March 2009 strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Surprisingly there are no members in AL/MS and only 2 active in FL. Unless Thunderhead Hawkins moved, he's in N. AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Am I just confused on what wishcasting is? I thought it was when you say, "check out the phase at hr 84" and there is no phase at all. Or saying, "this thing is def. phasing at hr 120...it's only out to 12 but I just know it". Can we please define what wishcasting is. Saying, "this has the potential to phase if the northern stream energy slows down"....how is that wishcasting? One of these days, everything is going to come up Millhouse for this subforum. Hopefully soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Did you not see the post that burger was referencing above (mine from the other thread)? He asked for the definition of wishcasting and then you replied with your smart remark...sorry if I reply a smart remark with a smart remark back. That's just the way it works. Nice touch there. Now, aside from the fact that I was answering burger, you felt the need to assume it was about you. Where does that come from? Truthfully, I have only been on tonight fairly recently, and have not made your acquaintance...am I to presume you may have been involved with some sort of disagreements today? Because for you to introduce yourself to me this way is bollocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I believe there shouldnt be another storm thread until we have a strong signal at 168 hours. By strong signal, I mean March 2009 strong. I agree with this under the "Limit The Number Of Confusing A** Threads" principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwinterwxman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I agree I believe there shouldnt be another storm thread until we have a strong signal at 168 hours. By strong signal, I mean March 2009 strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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