December Banter

[burgertime]

It's changing alright, just not for the better for the SE. I am hoping by Dec 20th or so or so we start seeing some changes coming together for early January. December is still toast for the SE, atleast through Xmas, anyone who says otherwise is reaching....

Who is saying anything otherwise? December is typically toast for the SE with snow involved every year.

[Brick Tamland]

It's changing alright, just not for the better for the SE. I am hoping by Dec 20th or so or so we start seeing some changes coming together for early January. December is still toast for the SE, atleast through Xmas, anyone who says otherwise is reaching....

So, what's with all the talk about the pattern changing? It seems the pattern has to change for us to have any chance of seeing winter weather at all around here. Of course, I don't think it will matter at all if the Pacific trough doesn't cooperate. And then it looks like there is no use at all at looking at long range forecasts. I kept hearing this winter looks better than last winter, the players on the field are not the same, but if it doesn't lead to anything then it doesn't matter.

[burgertime]

So, what's with all the talk about the pattern changing? It seems the pattern has to change for us to have any chance of seeing winter weather at all around here. Of course, I don't think it will matter at all if the Pacific trough doesn't cooperate. And then it looks like there is no use at all at looking at long range forecasts. I kept hearing this winter looks better than last winter, the players on the field are not the same, but if it doesn't lead to anything then it doesn't matter.

lol calm down bro.

[Brick Tamland]

lol calm down bro.

Just saying the crying wolf stuff gets old after a while. Maybe it will be different this winter, but we kept hearing the pattern is going to change all last winter, and it never did. Maybe it will this winter, but if the Pacific trough screws everything up it won't matter. It just seems there is always something we didn't forsee that screws up a "great pattern." I can only hope we just get some perfect setup like in Jan 2000 and have a huge storm that makes up for not having anything else the rest of winter.

[Jon]

So, what's with all the talk about the pattern changing? It seems the pattern has to change for us to have any chance of seeing winter weather at all around here. Of course, I don't think it will matter at all if the Pacific trough doesn't cooperate. And then it looks like there is no use at all at looking at long range forecasts. I kept hearing this winter looks better than last winter, the players on the field are not the same, but if it doesn't lead to anything then it doesn't matter.

Once the blocks set up and the pattern change occurs, there is a lag time as Robert says on his blog. This is common sense as the cold can't come east without the block, so the pattern won't actually change completely until after the block has been in place for days. That's basically why Dec is written off as far as winter weather for the SE, but the pattern change is not.

[calculus1]

So, what's with all the talk about the pattern changing? It seems the pattern has to change for us to have any chance of seeing winter weather at all around here. Of course, I don't think it will matter at all if the Pacific trough doesn't cooperate. And then it looks like there is no use at all at looking at long range forecasts. I kept hearing this winter looks better than last winter, the players on the field are not the same, but if it doesn't lead to anything then it doesn't matter.

The pattern is changing over the poles and in Canada. There will be a different setup in the upper atmosphere than there has been for the last week or so. This will lead to the Arctic air filtering into the plains states and the east side of the Rockies next week. This is good news. Cold air in the Midwest will enable snow cover to be laid down where it is currently quite bare. The cold will come here eventually. Maybe not in one fell swoop, but in waves. We may not be in the icebox from December 1 to February 28, but we will experience cold weather. Hopefully, precip will coincide with that cold and we'll get wintry precip, but we have to wait and see.

Your definition of weather pattern change seems to mean that your backyard temperature moves from 60+ and sunny to 30- and snow. Weather is much bigger than that. Not all pattern changes directly cause the SE to go into the freezer, but several things (such as the GOA low eroding) would be a step in the right direction. Enjoy the ride.

[Brick Tamland]

The pattern is changing over the poles and in Canada. There will be a different setup in the upper atmosphere than there has been for the last week or so. This will lead to the Arctic air filtering into the plains states and the east side of the Rockies next week. This is good news. Cold air in the Midwest will enable snow cover to be laid down where it is currently quite bare. The cold will come here eventually. Maybe not in one fell swoop, but in waves. We may not be in the icebox from December 1 to February 28, but we will experience cold weather. Hopefully, precip will coincide with that cold and we'll get wintry precip, but we have to wait and see.

Your definition of weather pattern change seems to mean that your backyard temperature moves from 60+ and sunny to 30- and snow. Weather is much bigger than that. Not all pattern changes directly cause the SE to go into the freezer, but several things (such as the GOA low eroding) would be a step in the right direction. Enjoy the ride.

I know, it's supposed to be a step down process. It just seems there is always something that gets thrown into the mix that screws things up as far as getting winter weather out of it. I have seen more than a few times in the past years talk about having a great pattern, but it goes to waste because hardly anything is produced from it.

[Cold Rain]

I know, it's supposed to be a step down process. It just seems there is always something that gets thrown into the mix that screws things up as far as getting winter weather out of it. I have seen more than a few times in the past years talk about having a great pattern, but it goes to waste because hardly anything is produced from it.

And just think, there is nothing great at all about this pattern or the upcoming one, as far as winter weather concerns go. That makes it not just bad or even really bad...but really, really bad. Maybe even really, really, really bad. Or maybe even super duper really really really bad. Really.

[SnowNiner]

So, what's with all the talk about the pattern changing? It seems the pattern has to change for us to have any chance of seeing winter weather at all around here. Of course, I don't think it will matter at all if the Pacific trough doesn't cooperate. And then it looks like there is no use at all at looking at long range forecasts. I kept hearing this winter looks better than last winter, the players on the field are not the same, but if it doesn't lead to anything then it doesn't matter.

I think Matt East said it best, "pattern change" means different things to different people. The Mets see the Alaska trough move/retrograde and call it a pattern change. For Joe Sho, Southeast that's nothing because it has no real affect other than maybe a bit wetter/cooler. So in Joe Sho weenie's mind it's not a pattern change. Long story short, there's a Met pattern change coming in a week, not a real wintry pattern change; i.e. it's not going to change anything for the Piedmont of NC. I think what gets confusing too is the model shifts. Yesterday all models showed no good weenie pattern change, today they do. Weenies start thinking there's a real pattern change coming but in reality it still isn't, it's just a variable model and a "Met pattern change" only.

My opinion is odds are decent things are going to change for the better. From what I've read in regard to DonSutherland's post, the odds are still pretty good for the AO to go REALLY negative. If that happens, I think winter comes south. I do not think the pacific is going to get any better this year. That is just lessons learned from last year; the Alaska thing probably won't go away...but if the Atlantic ocillation is so strong, it may trump it. That's my hope as of right now. It's probably about a 30% chance of actually happening but that's my shred of hope....until about January 1. Then it's punt city if things still look like this.

I don't know if this was a banter post or a forecast post but since I didn't really add any facts it's probably banter.

[burgertime]

I know, it's supposed to be a step down process. It just seems there is always something that gets thrown into the mix that screws things up as far as getting winter weather out of it. I have seen more than a few times in the past years talk about having a great pattern, but it goes to waste because hardly anything is produced from it.

It's December dude, give us some reasons as to why you think after the 20th colder air won't make it to the eastern seaboard?

[burgertime]

I think Matt East said it best, "pattern change" means different things to different people. The Mets see the Alaska trough move/retrograde and call it a pattern change. For Joe Sho, Southeast that's nothing because it has no real affect other than maybe a bit wetter/cooler. So in Joe Sho weenie's mind it's not a pattern change. Long story short, there's a Met pattern change coming in a week, not a real wintry pattern change; i.e. it's not going to change anything for the Piedmont of NC. I think what gets confusing too is the model shifts. Yesterday all models showed no good weenie pattern change, today they do. Weenies start thinking there's a real pattern change coming but in reality it still isn't, it's just a variable model and a "Met pattern change" only.

My opinion is odds are decent things are going to change for the better. From what I've read in regard to DonSutherland's post, the odds are still pretty good for the AO to go REALLY negative. If that happens, I think winter comes south. I do not think the pacific is going to get any better this year. That is just lessons learned from last year; the Alaska thing probably won't go away...but if the Atlantic ocillation is so strong, it may trump it. That's my hope as of right now. It's probably about a 30% chance of actually happening but that's my shred of hope....until about January 1. Then it's punt city if things still look like this.

I don't know if this was a banter post or a forecast post but since I didn't really add any facts it's probably banter.

But it does have an effect for later on down the road, it's the first step. That's why this pattern change coming up lends confidence to colder air coming in on the 20th...I think the confusion around here is "colder air" = chance of snow. When in fact it's a really long shot even during good winters around Christmas. I just like watching models and seeing what "MIGHT" be...but I'm not all bent out of shape if we just end up seasonal. The serious watching comes after Christmas.

[Cold Rain]

But it does have an effect for later on down the road, it's the first step. That's why this pattern change coming up lends confidence to colder air coming in on the 20th...I think the confusion around here is "colder air" = chance of snow. When in fact it's a really long shot even during good winters around Christmas. I just like watching models and seeing what "MIGHT" be...but I'm not all bent out of shape if we just end up seasonal. The serious watching comes after Christmas.

I honestly don't think most are confused about this stuff. "Some people" are just wishy washy and change their opinions ever 10 seconds based on snippets of info they read instead of researching and learning and coming up with their own conclusions.

By the way, have you looked at the individual ensemble members for the 12Z GFS? Some of those are showing some very interesting solutions. I know they won't verify, but they're fun to look at.

[SnowNiner]

But it does have an effect for later on down the road, it's the first step. That's why this pattern change coming up lends confidence to colder air coming in on the 20th...I think the confusion around here is "colder air" = chance of snow. When in fact it's a really long shot even during good winters around Christmas. I just like watching models and seeing what "MIGHT" be...but I'm not all bent out of shape if we just end up seasonal. The serious watching comes after Christmas.

Yeah, I don't know for sure, but after this "pattern change" why couldn't things just meander back to the way it was before? I'm not so sure a "pattern change" starts a necessary step down effect. It may just go one step forward two steps back....My opinion is I think a teleconnection has to give to push a REAL change. It doesn't seem like the EPO is going to change in the near term, so hopefully at the end of December the AO will just tank and make some real changes.

Seasonal for December is fine sure. However seasonal for January and February usually doesn't get us snow. It's got to get cold and active.

[burgertime]

I honestly don't think most are confused about this stuff. "Some people" are just wishy washy and change their opinions ever 10 seconds based on snippets of info they read instead of researching and learning and coming up with their own conclusions.

By the way, have you looked at the individual ensemble members for the 12Z GFS? Some of those are showing some very interesting solutions. I know they won't verify, but they're fun to look at.

Naw I haven't looked at those yet. I'm really surprised the weenies aren't overly excited about the 12z though it looked fantastic in the LR...maybe Lookout has them shook.

[Cold Rain]

Naw I haven't looked at those yet. I'm really surprised the weenies aren't overly excited about the 12z though it looked fantastic in the LR...maybe Lookout has them shook.

Yeah, I think he's got everyone scared.

[wx n of atl]

My call from September. Still believe we will see something this winter. Posted 18 September 2012 - 03:10 PM

Dec. 19th -20th north of Atlanta. my second choice would be January 5th.

[Jon]

Naw I haven't looked at those yet. I'm really surprised the weenies aren't overly excited about the 12z though it looked fantastic in the LR...maybe Lookout has them shook.

12z ENS 156hr

[Brick Tamland]

And it's actually only 7 days away!

[Bevo]

It's changing alright, just not for the better for the SE. I am hoping by Dec 20th or so or so we start seeing some changes coming together for early January. December is still toast for the SE, atleast through Xmas, anyone who says otherwise is reaching....

What kind of ridiculou....wait - what thread am I in.....okay - What kind of ridiculous statement is that?! Seriously. How in the @% is it not better for the SE?

Love you bro.

[WilkesboroDude]

Ambulance gets 'booted' while paramedics tend to emergency

http://www.wwltv.com/news/eyewitness/brendanmccarthy/Ambulance-gets-booted-while-tending-to-emergency-181631351.html

[packbacker]

What kind of ridiculou....wait - what thread am I in.....okay - What kind of ridiculous statement is that?! Seriously. How in the @% is it not better for the SE?

Love you bro.

Well it's not better if you like cold, if you like warmer weather your in the right spot. Atleast our gas bills will be low for Dec.

[pcbjr]

Looks like Canada has an immigration fence for snow:

[Bevo]

Well it's not better if you like cold, if you like warmer weather your in the right spot. Atleast our gas bills will be low for Dec.

Don't use gas - but I digress. How is it not turning colder? Tomorrow alone disqualifies your statements (even if only a day or two). But even after that? You really should start over-emphasizing the dates and time frames that you are referring to when issuing such indictments of no good news for the SE. How is it that you seem to see the exact opposite of what the Mets post? I'm curious as to how well that works out for you. Because if it does, you really should turn that into a way to make money.

[packbacker]

Don't use gas - but I digress. How is it not turning colder? Tomorrow alone disqualifies your statements (even if only a day or two). But even after that? You really should start over-emphasizing the dates and time frames that you are referring to when issuing such indictments of no good news for the SE. How is it that you seem to see the exact opposite of what the Mets post? I'm curious as to how well that works out for you. Because if it does, you really should turn that into a way to make money.

LOL....What mets have anything positive to say about a upcoming colder/wintery pattern for the SE? Show me one....Obviously you are reading different posts than everyone else on this board.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

LOL....What mets have anything positive to say about a upcoming colder/wintery pattern for the SE? Show me one....Obviously you are reading different posts than everyone else on this board.

Obviously you haven't seen or heard anything Foothills and Mathew East have to say.

[WilkesboroDude]

by 288...half foot of snow begins to fall TX/OK border...

[packbacker]

Obviously you haven't seen or heard anything Foothills and Mathew East have to say.

I haven't read what Robert said today but I can't believe his message was to get ready for the incoming cold pattern for the SE in the next 2 weeks? And Matt did't say there was impending cold pattern shaping up for SE, unless he posted something other than this below. Show me any post by any met on this board that believes there is an impending pattern change for the SE coming up in the next 2 weeks? I am guessing they are probably saying that the SE could turn cold this winter if the blocking is strong enough to overcome the pacific or the PNA/EPO flips.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38147-december-forecast-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__1897570

[Bevo]

I haven't read what Robert said today but I can't believe his message was to get ready for the incoming cold pattern for the SE in the next 2 weeks? And Matt did't say there was impending cold pattern shaping up for SE, unless he posted something other than this below. Show me any post by any met on this board that believes there is an impending pattern change for the SE coming up in the next 2 weeks? I am guessing they are probably saying that the SE could turn cold this winter if the blocking is strong enough to overcome the pacific or the PNA/EPO flips.

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1897570

Wow - it's obvious that there is nothing else to say.

[buckeyefan1]

I honestly don't think most are confused about this stuff. "Some people" are just wishy washy and change their opinions ever 10 seconds based on snippets of info they read instead of researching and learning and coming up with their own conclusions.

By the way, have you looked at the individual ensemble members for the 12Z GFS? Some of those are showing some very interesting solutions. I know they won't verify, but they're fun to look at.

Yes they are

Naw I haven't looked at those yet. I'm really surprised the weenies aren't overly excited about the 12z though it looked fantastic in the LR...maybe Lookout has them shook.

Goofy looked good way out in lala land...that is one huge blob of moisture headed from the gulf

[Cold Rain]

Alrighty, let's not beat up on my man packbacker too much. I don't believe anyone, Matt East, Robert, Allan, DT, HKY, HM, the other HM, Mr. Bob, or any other met is calling for a sustained period of cold weather within the next two weeks. However, most of them said that the NH pattern is changing. And they're right, it is. It looks to be one to bring more rain and some variable shots of cool/warm temps. I think pretty much everyone is in agreement on that aspect of it. So, in that sense, packbacker is correct.

On the other hand, the backer of the pack has implied (at least the way I understand it) that he's pretty much punting December. That's fine too, BUT, at the same time, Bevo is right in his implication that most of those mets have not ruled out the possibility of colder weather working south and east through the month. The 20th seems to be the date now that folks are keying in on for a potential better setup. Personally, I think it's premature to rule all of December compeletely out. There's simply no empirical data that supports this as set in stone.

Anyway, I do agree with Bevo in that it make a lot of sense to emphasize dates or timeframes when speculating. It helps with understanding and it promotes accountability.

Go Pack!