December Banter

[NavarreDon]

I am surprised no one has mentioned what I feel is the biggest reason that this forum isn't what it once was. When Robert started his pay site and virtually withdrew from this forum it started a domino effect. His strong analysis of Southeast weather was a prime reason other mets posted in this forum and resulted in a lot of excellent and detailed discussions. That no longer occurs and I don't see anyone comparable on the horizon.

The other reason is something that has always been the case but was somewhat obscured by the excellent discussions I mentioned above. That is the fact that we can look at a 10 day map that shows some snow and all of a sudden there is a new thread about the "threat" of a winter storm many days out. Most of it is hogwash but that's not the real problem. What makes the forum more unprofessional is the mass jumping onto anyone who dares to say the threat is not real. The cliff jumper label comes out in an effort to stifle any negative discussion. It's as is some feel that anyone who does not agree will somehow jinx their preferred outcome. I find it interesting that the same folks that post the most 10 day models, and God forbid snow cover maps, are also the leading posters of cliff jumping images.

Personally, despite the numerous threads to the contrary, I have not felt at any time so far this winter that I had any reasonable chance of snow. I haven't posted much if anything stating that because I don't wish to engage in the back and forth that would result. At this point I still dont see anything out there that raises my level of interest. I hope that changes but I wouldn't bet my lunch money.

The argument is premature I best. We were getting 100+ members watching the thread for the so called no chance at all fantasy storms with several red taggers lurking.

Give it a real threat and they will come and or post.

Most people *most* are not going to leave a board because there is too much wishcasting or weenie posting or whatever. Besides, in the important threads, the mods do a good job in keeping those mostly clean. I think the more likely reasons that some mets and old timers might not be posting are:

1) Blogs, Twitter, Facebook, other forums, etc. are more prevalent now than they were several years ago and time is being split between those outlets and this board.

2) There is NOTHING going on right now.

3) Some people like to be a big fish in a little pond. The SE forum has become a big pond with a lot of fish. It's now a bit harder to feel as important as you may have used to.

4) Personal attacks against someone might drive them away.

5) There is NOTHING going on right now.

My feeling about posting is, if you have a relevant and meaningful comment to make in a discussion thread, you should feel free and be allowed to make it, met or not. Whining about your lack of snow is fine too but should be relegated to the Banter thread.

This is a weather board and we are all here, every one of us, because we all have at least one awesome thing in common: we love the weather! We ought to make each other welcomed and encourage discussion and share knowledge and help each other learn. But it should also be important to each of us to take responsibility for what we say, how we say it, when we say it, and where we say it.

This stuff should be fun, and it really isn't hard to figure out how to participate in a weather forum and still maintain a great environment for anyone, met or not, to feel encouraged to post and add their thoughts.

PS: I'm sure Americanwx isn't going to ban you for mentioning the name of another forum. We mostly know them all anyway.

The End.

All good posts with merit in each one. imo the main issue is we haven't had a widespread imminent winter storm threat in the SE for almost 2 yrs. This has caused several things....less posting by Mets & our weather experts. People who want winter weather get antsy which causes them to focus on other things or if on the board to get sensitive. Let a Dec 18 2009 or a Christmas storm 2010 threat come into view & stay, even if it is on and off the models to fruition and you will see lots Mets, experts, & excitement with really large numbers in the threads. Bottom line is the SE is winter weather starved right now but, when we do get a true system to track things will explode in here.

[packbacker]

All good posts with merit in each one. imo the main issue is we haven't had a widespread imminent winter storm threat in the SE for almost 2 yrs. This has caused several things....less posting by Mets & our weather experts. People who want winter weather get antsy which causes them to focus on other things or if on the board to get sensitive. Let a Dec 18 2009 or a Christmas storm 2010 threat come into view & stay, even if it is on and off the models to fruition and you will see lots Mets, experts, & excitement with really large numbers in the threads. Bottom line is the SE is winter weather starved right now but, when we do get a true system to track things will explode in here.

Agreed! We are way over analyzing why more red taggers aren't posting, give us a winter storm and we will have 10 red taggers posting and 400 people on the SE board.

[Cold Rain]

Agreed! We are way over analyzing why more red taggers aren't posting, give us a winter storm and we will have 10 red taggers posting and 400 people on the SE board.

Truth.

[franklin NCwx]

One more thing I wanted to add....

I don't have any problem discussing threats that might appear out in time. Speculating is fun and besides, if we waited until a threat was imminent, there would be very little activity going on. Some might like that, and that's a fine viewpoint. I just don't share it. I think it's a lot more fun to talk about what might be possible than to not talk about anything at all.

If someone doesn't want to participate, then they don't have to. And they shouldn't be made to feel bad for it and they shouldn't be labled as a cliff-diver for it.

By the way, on the whole cliff diver thing, if you don't agree with a 10 day snowstorm panning out, that's not cliff diving. But all the "Winter is Over in November and December" crap is stupid and that's what I would call cliff diving.

So far this year, we've done a good job in this forum about not starting threads about specific 10 day threats. I agree with Burns that if you point out legitimate reasons that a potential system is not going to work out, you shouldn't be attacked for that....again, that goes back to knowing how to appropriately engage with others. And if you can't figure that out, you should not post.

This is what gets me the most. And the same folks who post that crap never back it up with anything. They only add some one line nonsense.

[Carvers Gap]

I am surprised no one has mentioned what I feel is the biggest reason that this forum isn't what it once was. When Robert started his pay site and virtually withdrew from this forum it started a domino effect. His strong analysis of Southeast weather was a prime reason other mets posted in this forum and resulted in a lot of excellent and detailed discussions. That no longer occurs and I don't see anyone comparable on the horizon.

The other reason is something that has always been the case but was somewhat obscured by the excellent discussions I mentioned above. That is the fact that we can look at a 10 day map that shows some snow and all of a sudden there is a new thread about the "threat" of a winter storm many days out. Most of it is hogwash but that's not the real problem. What makes the forum more unprofessional is the mass jumping onto anyone who dares to say the threat is not real. The cliff jumper label comes out in an effort to stifle any negative discussion. It's as is some feel that anyone who does not agree will somehow jinx their preferred outcome. I find it interesting that the same folks that post the most 10 day models, and God forbid snow cover maps, are also the leading posters of cliff jumping images.

Personally, despite the numerous threads to the contrary, I have not felt at any time so far this winter that I had any reasonable chance of snow. I haven't posted much if anything stating that because I don't wish to engage in the back and forth that would result. At this point I still dont see anything out there that raises my level of interest. I hope that changes but I wouldn't bet my lunch money.

I agree.

[Bevo]

I agree.

Has the Tri-city area seen any snow so far this winter? It seems like you would have at least been close to a couple.

[Carvers Gap]

Most people *most* are not going to leave a board because there is too much wishcasting or weenie posting or whatever. Besides, in the important threads, the mods do a good job in keeping those mostly clean. I think the more likely reasons that some mets and old timers might not be posting are:

1) Blogs, Twitter, Facebook, other forums, etc. are more prevalent now than they were several years ago and time is being split between those outlets and this board.

2) There is NOTHING going on right now.

3) Some people like to be a big fish in a little pond. The SE forum has become a big pond with a lot of fish. It's now a bit harder to feel as important as you may have used to.

4) Personal attacks against someone might drive them away.

5) There is NOTHING going on right now.

My feeling about posting is, if you have a relevant and meaningful comment to make in a discussion thread, you should feel free and be allowed to make it, met or not. Whining about your lack of snow is fine too but should be relegated to the Banter thread.

This is a weather board and we are all here, every one of us, because we all have at least one awesome thing in common: we love the weather! We ought to make each other welcomed and encourage discussion and share knowledge and help each other learn. But it should also be important to each of us to take responsibility for what we say, how we say it, when we say it, and where we say it.

This stuff should be fun, and it really isn't hard to figure out how to participate in a weather forum and still maintain a great environment for anyone, met or not, to feel encouraged to post and add their thoughts.

PS: I'm sure Americanwx isn't going to ban you for mentioning the name of another forum. We mostly know them all anyway.

The End.

I agree with some of your points, especially 1 and 2. It may be that the forum format is going to be a thing of the past in terms of how tech is used now. Facebook and Twitter may continue to evolve into some sort of forum format - a benefit would be people have to use their real names. As for the pond analogy, I can make a pretty good case that the quality of posts have diminished significantly irregardless. I think most of us realize we know very little when compared to a meteorologist. What has always made this board strong is a good conversation between red taggers and people that have weather as a hobby - and know their stuff. Right now, that conversation is minimal...at no fault of the red taggers I might add. In the past, the board barely moved a muscle when a model would show a particular solution. Folks would wait for consensus among the models and ensembles or have a good reason for not doing so. That has not been happening. It was a scientific discussion where folks would actually play the other side of the argument just to increase the rigor of the conversation. It was obvious to many in late November that December was going to go warm. Anyone that dared question the "cold December" forecasts were seen as cancelling winter. I can find very few, if anyone, who was saying winter was over other than the standard folks who like to prod folks. For most of us, we came here to learn instead of wanting to be heard.

[Carvers Gap]

Has the Tri-city area seen any snow so far this winter? It seems like you would have at least been close to a couple.

Heavy dusting w/ snow showers one day and flurries two nights ago. I think KTRI may have recorded .5, but they are closer to the mountains and in better shape for upslope near Holston Mtn.

[Cold Rain]

I agree with some of your points, especially 1 and 2. It may be that the forum format is going to be a thing of the past in terms of how tech is used now. Facebook and Twitter may continue to evolve into some sort of forum format - a benefit would be people have to use their real names. As for the pond analogy, I can make a pretty good case that the quality of posts have diminished significantly irregardless. I think most of us realize we know very little when compared to a meteorologist. What has always made this board strong is a good conversation between red taggers and people that have weather as a hobby - and know their stuff. Right now, that conversation is minimal...at no fault of the red taggers I might add. In the past, the board barely moved a muscle when a model would show a particular solution. Folks would wait for consensus among the models and ensembles or have a good reason for not doing so. That has not been happening. It was a scientific discussion where folks would actually play the other side of the argument just to increase the rigor of the conversation. It was obvious to many in late November that December was going to go warm. Anyone that dared question the "cold December" forecasts were seen as cancelling winter. I can find very few, if anyone, who was saying winter was over other than the standard folks who like to prod folks. For most of us, we came here to learn instead of wanting to be heard.

I don't mean to imply that everyone who may have left did so because they're voices were being drowned out. But, as this forum has grown and there are a lot more folks posting now, some may have grown tired of the noise and went some place less noisy. I'm not saying that's bad either, but I do believe that to be a possibility as to why some aren't posting here as much.

As the community grows, and as more people learn where to access model data, you're just naturally going to have more people bringing stuff up. Keeping order is up to the mods. If they do their job well, it will help (and has helped) to mitigate some of the noise).

On the whole November/December thing, I canceling the entire next month is risky, and while it's certainly ok to make that call, it's also ok to question the validity of it, especially given the degree of difficulty of seasonal forecasting and the fact that models struggle even a few days out. I know you're not arguing that point, but I just wanted to point that out anyway.

[Bevo]

I don't mean to imply that everyone who may have left did so because they're voices were being drowned out. But, as this forum has grown and there are a lot more folks posting now, some may have grown tired of the noise and went some place less noisy. I'm not saying that's bad either, but I do believe that to be a possibility as to why some aren't posting here as much.

As the community grows, and as more people learn where to access model data, you're just naturally going to have more people bringing stuff up. Keeping order is up to the mods. If they do their job well, it will help (and has helped) to mitigate some of the noise).

On the whole November/December thing, I canceling the entire next month is risky, and while it's certainly ok to make that call, it's also ok to question the validity of it, especially given the degree of difficulty of seasonal forecasting and the fact that models struggle even a few days out. I know you're not arguing that point, but I just wanted to point that out anyway.

In that regard, questioning the validity often times amounted to just simply asking someone to give a solid reason for declaring those statements as fact. That isn't too much to ask.

[Cold Rain]

In that regard, questioning the validity often times amounted to just simply asking someone to give a solid reason for declaring those statements as fact. That isn't too much to ask.

Yep. And that goes in either direction too. There's often a lot of proclaiming and whining without giving scientific reasoning behind it. That's ok, but it should also be ok to have it questioned. And it's also ok to have it asked to be moved to the banter thread. I don't think Carver or anyone else is arguing against that though.

I think at the end of the day, when a threat becomes clear and imminent, there will be plenty of good analysis and met posters around.

[rduwx]

I don't mean to imply that everyone who may have left did so because they're voices were being drowned out. But, as this forum has grown and there are a lot more folks posting now, some may have grown tired of the noise and went some place less noisy. I'm not saying that's bad either, but I do believe that to be a possibility as to why some aren't posting here as much.

As the community grows, and as more people learn where to access model data, you're just naturally going to have more people bringing stuff up. Keeping order is up to the mods. If they do their job well, it will help (and has helped) to mitigate some of the noise).

On the whole November/December thing, I canceling the entire next month is risky, and while it's certainly ok to make that call, it's also ok to question the validity of it, especially given the degree of difficulty of seasonal forecasting and the fact that models struggle even a few days out. I know you're not arguing that point, but I just wanted to point that out anyway.

This forum might of grown but imo it feels like the opposite. I've been around these weather boards a long time and it appears, to me anyway, that it's just not as busy. I've been through several winters that didn't produce any winter weather but the board always seemed to be busy. I don't know why but it just doesn't seem to have that same feel these days. It might be because a lot of the old timers aren't posting like they used to and we're in the middle of a transition period.

[Brick Tamland]

Well, there hasn't been a real threat in two years. Tomorrow looks like mostly rain for most folks that post here, and the system at the beginning of 2013 is so back and forth. I think we would see more traffic if we actually had a good snow storm coming. I do thin facebook and the blogs have caused some mets to post less. Plus, other factors like just being busier and family. But if we had a real big threat, I do think we would see more mets and others posting. However, I noticed when we even had severe weather threats that less mets and people posted than in the past.

As far as other forums go, there really isn't much out there. Accuweather might have more traffic even, but it is all about the NE and mid-Atlantic. Talk Weather has a lot less traffic and is mostly posters from Alabama.

[metalicwx366]

This is what gets me the most. And the same folks who post that crap never back it up with anything. They only add some one line nonsense.

Yeah but when people post evidence about why the pattern will turn cold and or snowy, it never seems to come to fruition. Its happened several times this year.

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah but when people post evidence about why the pattern will turn cold and or snowy, it never seems to come to fruition. Its happened several times this year.

It's not hard to see why people say it won't happen because most of the time something shown more than 48 hours out doesn't happen that way. It's just experience living here. People stop believing anything from that far out and think others keep crying wolf.

[Cold Rain]

^ You guys...

Who forecasted a snowstorm and when did they forecast it?

[burgertime]

If the Euro follows suite of the 12z GFS you're about to see business pick up in here.

[Jon]

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

[rduwx]

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

Good post Jon! I admit that I look at how it used to be around the forums but I agree w/ your comments above.

[griteater]

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

Well said, I agree

[Cold Rain]

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

I agree as well.

[Brick Tamland]

If the Euro follows suite of the 12z GFS you're about to see business pick up in here.

Do tell! Let's get back to bantering about the weather.

[strongwxnc]

Great statement Jon!

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

[calculus1]

At the end of the day it's only a weather forum. People come and go on forums all the time and things are expected to change both with time and different management, etc. Eastern has always been different than AmericanWx. We can't live in the good ol days forever! It's up to the people here to make the disco and community, not the people who have left.

Excellent post! I've only been around for two years now (joined up during the great Christmas storm of 2010!), but I continue to enjoy the posting of most everybody on hear. There is banter, witty repartee, and good ol' fashioned weather discussion. There are very few people who truly get on my nerves and I think many people are quite respectful. Thanks for making me a part of the group!

[Brick Tamland]

Just read the Jan thread. Looks like the GFS was a good step for the early Jan storm. Have to see what Euro says next. Confidence isn't high though. Models are still all over the place. And looks like I actullay got some props there for saying it is silly to say mid to late Jan looks good for snow around here.

[Bevo]

Excellent post! I've only been around for two years now (joined up during the great Christmas storm of 2010!), but I continue to enjoy the posting of most everybody on hear. There is banter, witty repartee, and good ol' fashioned weather discussion. There are very few people who truly get on my nerves and I think many people are quite respectful. Thanks for making me a part of the group!

You and your fancy phrases

The only thing that halts change is extinction. Internet interactions change quickly, and people are finding other means to feed their inner Met. I would like to think that as far as "weather" related posts, I choose carefully and try not to speak too much. Banter is a different animal, and a necessity to any forum/message boards. It seems the problem many times lies in the execution. Many of us could stand to be more disciplined in the "weather" threads and use "banter" for what it is.

But at the end of the day, I just really hope I'm included in the witty repartee population.

[Bevo]

Just read the Jan thread. Looks like the GFS was a good step for the early Jan storm. Have to see what Euro says next. Confidence isn't high though. Models are still all over the place. And looks like I actullay got some props there for saying it is silly to say mid to late Jan looks good for snow around here.

You didn't pee yourself did you...even a little?

Relax Brick - it's a joke.

[calculus1]

You and your fancy phrases

The only thing that halts change is extinction. Internet interactions change quickly, and people are finding other means to feed their inner Met. I would like to think that as far as "weather" related posts, I choose carefully and try not to speak too much. Banter is a different animal, and a necessity to any forum/message boards. It seems the problem many times lies in the execution. Many of us could stand to be more disciplined in the "weather" threads and use "banter" for what it is.

But at the end of the day, I just really hope I'm included in the witty repartee population.

But, of course!! Anyone who uses the phrase "Bollocks!" gets an automatic entry into that population. Classy British phrases are all the rage (at least in certain select communities!).

Nerd on!

By the way, is Bevo the mascot of the Texas Longhorns? Hook 'em, Horns, by chance? If so, I'm not a fan, but I'm also not a hater. I suppose I would be ambivalent toward that team, though I did enjoy their recent victory over a certain team from North Carolina who wears that light sissy-colored blue on their unis!!

[Bevo]

But, of course!! Anyone who uses the phrase "Bollocks!" gets an automatic entry into that population. Classy British phrases are all the rage (at least in certain select communities!).

Nerd on!

By the way, is Bevo the mascot of the Texas Longhorns? Hook 'em, Horns, by chance? If so, I'm not a fan, but I'm also not a hater. I suppose I would be ambivalent toward that team, though I did enjoy their recent victory over a certain team from North Carolina who wears that light sissy-colored blue on their unis!!

That would be the Texas Longhorns. The football program has caused great strife for me in recent years. Therefore, we are currently separated until they can sort their life out.

[iceman]

I suggested this before. Temps seem to be struggling to go up today. What if the overnight temps come in 3 or 4 degrees lower than forcasted. Could get interesting tonight.