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December Banter

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

00z gfs is giving the TN KY border an inch or two. Looks like La Follette and Crossville might get an inch or so. If the low goes a little south then maybe Knoxville can get more than snow showers.

Also, I stuck to the current forecast of snow from AR through MO and KY and NW TN on Friday and got pelted by the CAD wishcasters for telling them it wouldn't snow in NC. Now even the met offices think snow in the mountains will be limited since the winds will be further out of the west than northwest. Some kept latching on to the CMC too when it was a clear outlier. It's now with the consensus.

You can't pick and choose which models to throw out because they don't give you snow. If there is a solid consensus in the reliable timeframe for a model, it's telling you something. It is fun tto wish cast, and pretend what if, but if the met office discos and the models aren't showing what you want, then you have to cave in.

It's much more gracious (and satisfying, for that matter) to have other people commend your forecast than it is to toot your own horn. But, whatever...

Is there a slow clap emoticon on here?

I think you make valid points, but the delivery comes across snarky, at times. Anyway, just my opinion, for what that's worth.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

We've turned the corner, but it's going to be a long road. During a hysterectomy to also remove a hopefully contained cancer, the colon somehow got a hole punctured in it, bowel was leaking into the abdomen, so they had to do a 2nd and more invasive abdominal sternum to pelvic bone surgery to correct the problem. Unfortunately, one of those 'risks' you sign off on when you sign the consent forms. She's dealing with 2 major surgeries in less than 36 hours, and at 68 years old, well, she's not going to recover quite as fast as I did when I had abdominal surgery (3 times - also cancer related) when I was a spry, fit 26 year old specimen. Hopefully, things I learned from my problems will help her in her recovery. Appreciate any good thoughts that come along - don't want to screw up the "we're always seeing snow 10 days out on the models" banter thread :D :D :)

You're not screwing it up at all. Sorry to hear about the tough time you and your wife have had recently. I hope you two can make the best of what will obviously be a tougher Christmas than normal.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

We always seem to be 10 days away from a good chance of snow. It gets old. Not sure why we ever trust the models that far out. We keep getting suckered baxk in, though. It seems the only time we actually get anything in my area is when something doesn't show up on the models until 48 hours or less ahead of time.

Suggestion. From now on only comment on things you don't see. In keeping with the theme, I also suggest changing the color of your type to the background color.

lol

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Well, instead of a white Christmas we'll be worrying about severe storms and tornadoes. And now things don't look as good for the start of January. Same old story of it being too warm when the precip is here and dry when it is cold.

Winter is over. Just start preparing for hurricane season making sure you have all your supplies and be sure to go outside when a tornado warning is issued. We were struggling to get a +PNA and now when we might get it, the AO and NAO turn positive.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Well the December disco thread has turned into a Banter thread again. Garbage.

Use the report button ;) I can get to them faster when it's used.

We've turned the corner, but it's going to be a long road. During a hysterectomy to also remove a hopefully contained cancer, the colon somehow got a hole punctured in it, bowel was leaking into the abdomen, so they had to do a 2nd and more invasive abdominal sternum to pelvic bone surgery to correct the problem. Unfortunately, one of those 'risks' you sign off on when you sign the consent forms. She's dealing with 2 major surgeries in less than 36 hours, and at 68 years old, well, she's not going to recover quite as fast as I did when I had abdominal surgery (3 times - also cancer related) when I was a spry, fit 26 year old specimen. Hopefully, things I learned from my problems will help her in her recovery. Appreciate any good thoughts that come along - don't want to screw up the "we're always seeing snow 10 days out on the models" banter thread :D :D :)

Sending her positive thoughts for a speedy recovery :hug:

As someone who has experienced a hysterectomy due to cancer(12 years cancer free now) I will keep you all in my thoughts :wub:

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

http://us.cnn.com/2012/12/24/us/new-york-firefighters-shooting/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

4 firefighters shot, 2 killed this morning in NY while responding to a house fire. I'm not sure what goes through people's mind, but it makes my next 36 hours at the firehouse just a little uncomfortable....back to lurking.

I read that. I cannot imagine what would drive a person to do such a thing...

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Really Surprised by the lack of discussion regarding the potential severe weather outbreak tomorrow across most of the southeast .

Let me preface this by saying that I'm going to make a generality. Most people on this board are here to look for winter weather opportunities not for severe weather opportunities, especially in winter. Severe storms and tornadoes are pretty cool (and, yes, quite dangerous), but they don't get the average weenie anywhere near as excited as does a snowstorm. Ergo, not much discussion on the severe weather but still tons of discussion on potentially minor snow events. It's just the nature of the beast.

I am in full weenie mode! Visiting the inlaws for Christmas and was just put under a blizzard watch here in s. Illinois!

My grandmother lives in southern Illinois. Benton, to be exact. I've never been there at Christmastime, but it's pretty cool that they're going to dumped on with snow. I'm not sure how much she cares about it, though.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Well, I don't know about the rest of Ga. but winter is looking up in mby. I was doing some figuring and with todays .9 in precious rain, I figure to be under 10 inches down for the year. To me this is a huge change in trend. It was back in 98 when I last had some above normal rains, and have been trending down until this fall. For years my backyard has been longing for this time, and now it seems to be here. If the GFS is right (and it has been very right on rain totals recently), and I get another 1.7 to 2 inches tomorrow and Wed; and, the gfs finds me another storm for the end of the year, like it had recently, I could be down under a 5 to 7 inch deficit by Jan 1. Wild hoping and guessing, sure, but to be this near normal in my yard after all these years of no rain, is amazing to me. Granted I'm basing this on a 10 year mean at the Experiment Station, with some added fudging, since the Station, a few miles away, and I, don't always get the same weather... so it is pseudo scientific gobbly wobble, and only counts for my yard, but I'll take it!! And it bodes well for a more normal winter, or who knows, maybe above normal. Now I'm talking about my yard only, where I had two mole storms that dropped over 11 inches, that my buddy on the other side of the county didn't get, so I'm assuming most around me are still down 17 inches, or more, but my yard is getting well lately, and now I can hope for a big sleet storm for my yard this winter, as the rains are here, and it just takes some marginal cold, which Ga. is great at in winter. In fact, "marginal temps: is the weather moto for most of the state, lol.

Larry says we need to get below a 50 degree average by years end, and I say we get better chances with normal, or above normal rains, so I know what I want for Christmas! A cold spell in late Dec, then give me a small zrain storm, say 1/2 or 3/4's inches, accompanied by lots of wind (to take out the dead wood), and a big sleet storm in Jan., followed by another big sleet storm in Feb. and a huge, big snow/sleet storm in late Feb. with another blizzard in March. Heck, I'm getting rains in mby.....it could happen :) Tony

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Let me preface this by saying that I'm going to make a generality. Most people on this board are here to look for winter weather opportunities not for severe weather opportunities, especially in winter. Severe storms and tornadoes are pretty cool (and, yes, quite dangerous), but they don't get the average weenie anywhere near as excited as does a snowstorm. Ergo, not much discussion on the severe weather but still tons of discussion on potentially minor snow events. It's just the nature of the beast.

I'm a severe weather nut anytime of the year. Snow is boring..! :gun_bandana:

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Well, I don't know about the rest of Ga. but winter is looking up in mby. I was doing some figuring and with todays .9 in precious rain, I figure to be under 10 inches down for the year. To me this is a huge change in trend. It was back in 98 when I last had some above normal rains, and have been trending down until this fall. For years my backyard has been longing for this time, and now it seems to be here. If the GFS is right (and it has been very right on rain totals recently), and I get another 1.7 to 2 inches tomorrow and Wed; and, the gfs finds me another storm for the end of the year, like it had recently, I could be down under a 5 to 7 inch deficit by Jan 1. Wild hoping and guessing, sure, but to be this near normal in my yard after all these years of no rain, is amazing to me. Granted I'm basing this on a 10 year mean at the Experiment Station, with some added fudging, since the Station, a few miles away, and I, don't always get the same weather... so it is pseudo scientific gobbly wobble, and only counts for my yard, but I'll take it!! And it bodes well for a more normal winter, or who knows, maybe above normal. Now I'm talking about my yard only, where I had two mole storms that dropped over 11 inches, that my buddy on the other side of the county didn't get, so I'm assuming most around me are still down 17 inches, or more, but my yard is getting well lately, and now I can hope for a big sleet storm for my yard this winter, as the rains are here, and it just takes some marginal cold, which Ga. is great at in winter. In fact, "marginal temps: is the weather moto for most of the state, lol.

Larry says we need to get below a 50 degree average by years end, and I say we get better chances with normal, or above normal rains, so I know what I want for Christmas! A cold spell in late Dec, then give me a small zrain storm, say 1/2 or 3/4's inches, accompanied by lots of wind (to take out the dead wood), and a big sleet storm in Jan., followed by another big sleet storm in Feb. and a huge, big snow/sleet storm in late Feb. with another blizzard in March. Heck, I'm getting rains in mby.....it could happen :) Tony

I would enjoy the bolded if it happens :lol: I'm just glad to see those rain chances these next few weeks :hug:

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Pacific, Pacific, Pacific, Pacific!! Bermuda, Bermuda, Bermuda, Bermuda!! Can you guess what the problem is? I'll give you 2 hints, but that it. After that i'll just have to show you pictures of water, and palm trees and white sand. Like Christmas in July.

We will be mowing grass by February just like this year. Im with frosty cold keeps coming but by time it gets here winter will be over

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