Jon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Can you post the frame after that frosty. Here you go http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks Jon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Boy the CMC is a jackpot run for the central and western Carolinas. The EURO is sort of split between the GFS and CMC. So many choices, but plenty of time to evaluate. I DO like the post about DT's analysis and think it is spot on. (Personally, I just wish he had a little more tact, though) If I were to predict something right now, I think the GFS is too far N and W, the CMC too far S and E. The EURO is probably pretty close but a touch too far N and W too. Of course, all of the solutions could be wrong at this point. Best bet is to study the ENS forecast, which I haven't done yet. Until the shortwaves can be sampled better via soundings, each run for all of the models is touch and go at this point. I look forward to further discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 When will the s/w be over the western states and be sampled better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Boy the CMC is a jackpot run for the central and western Carolinas. The EURO is sort of split between the GFS and CMC. So many choices, but plenty of time to evaluate. I DO like the post about DT's analysis and think it is spot on. (Personally, I just wish he had a little more tact, though) If I were to predict something right now, I think the GFS is too far N and W, the CMC too far S and E. The EURO is probably pretty close but a touch too far N and W too. Of course, all of the solutions could be wrong at this point. Best bet is to study the ENS forecast, which I haven't done yet. Until the shortwaves can be sampled better via soundings, each run for all of the models is touch and go at this point. I look forward to further discussion! Me too! And thanks for posting your thoughts I appreciate you taking the time post here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 When will the s/w be over the western states and be sampled better? I believe that will be around Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thanks Jon. Anytime! When will the s/w be over the western states and be sampled better? I agree with Burger, around mid day Monday, most likely we'll really see changes with the 0z suite following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Being a pharmacy student I can't help but remind you all, get your flu shots y'all! Believe it or not, it helps. Most states in SE have most cases of flu so far, off the charts almost. This year is in bold, last year is the faint blue line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am currently recovering from the flu, after recieving my flu shot a few weeks ago. This is the first time I have had the flu in 20 years, and also the first time I have gotten the shot in the same time period....Trust me this flu is no joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I see the 18 z GFS has come in a lot warmer for the New years storm that was looking so great.its a ways out ,so maybe it'll go back to colder solutions in the future.the big thing now is that the storm is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 South and East. Nothing to see here. South and East. Nothing to see here. Story of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Three different storms to follow between Christmas and Jan 4. This is going to be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 00z gfs cuts the 12/27 storm west of the apps. lets see what it shows with our other threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What's up with all of the smart ass posters recently? The usual suspects that nobody likes due to their attitude. I won't name names but its not hard to figure out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What's up with all of the smart ass posters recently? The usual suspects that nobody likes due to their attitude. I won't name names but its not hard to figure out either. Yep,.....my ignore list just keeps growing and growing......It's a really neat feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah the ignore feature is a beautiful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah the ignore feature is a beautiful thing. I've never used the ostrich feature. I'm not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What's up with all of the smart ass posters recently? The usual suspects that nobody likes due to their attitude. I won't name names but its not hard to figure out either. I'm sure it won't take long for these posters to be sent to time out this winter If they would learn to read more and post less it would make everyone happy Yep,.....my ignore list just keeps growing and growing......It's a really neat feature. Yeah the ignore feature is a beautiful thing. I can't ignore anymore On the bright side the delete/report button is working well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still lots of confusion. JB says snow down to I40 in the South. Robert says icestorm north-west NC. Posters say move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 After today's 12z runs, It safe to say move north if you want winter weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 NWS Blacksburg As of 500 am EST Saturday... Now that we have survived the shortest day (and longest night) of the year...time to start adding daylight back to the diurnal cycle. Still got to get through the lag time and cold of winter but at least it will be getting brighter with each passing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NWS Blacksburg As of 500 am EST Saturday... Now that we have survived the shortest day (and longest night) of the year...time to start adding daylight back to the diurnal cycle. Still got to get through the lag time and cold of winter but at least it will be getting brighter with each passing day. Great. Now we have the Sun angle going against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Great. Now we have the Sun angle going against us. The bad news just keeps coming, we can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will be taking a short mandatory leave from this board. God bless north-west North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will be taking a short mandatory leave from this board. God bless north-west North Carolina. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I am ready for this bloody month and year to be over with, evidently only way the east coast is going to get a winter storm in 2012 is from a hurricane. Calendar years 2011 and 2012 produced a grand total of 1" in RDU which means 2013 needs 21" to get back on average! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I love how everyone is writing off the Christmas storm, albeit some at another board are writing off the New Years storm. Embarrassing, especially with it being still a few days away, and a week and a half away for the New Years storm. If the models aren't showing favorable outcomes within 36-48 hours, ill finally give up. Not until then, for either storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I am ready for this bloody month and year to be over with, evidently only way the east coast is going to get a winter storm in 2012 is from a hurricane. Calendar years 2011 and 2012 produced a grand total of 1" in RDU which means 2013 needs 21" to get back on average! Raleigh only averages 3.9" based on the 30 year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like I missed again on the post Christmas storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Raleigh only averages 3.9" based on the 30 year average. Not this argument again....Raleigh's 100+ year average is 7.5", you can pick whatever period you want, Raleigh's 1.5 year average is 0.5", its 8 year average is 2.2", its 13 year average is 7". Weather is very cyclical, the past 24 years have been on a downward trend, the previous 20+ years we were probably close to 9", its best to average over a lengthy time. Oops, I guess I did argue :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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