Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Therein lies the key to this whole mess. It's good to see this side of you again pack...and for the record, I really have enjoyed your posts. Even the ones we *disagreed on. I agree. I enjoy packbacker's posts. He keeps it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Therein lies the key to this whole mess. It's good to see this side of you again pack...and for the record, I really have enjoyed your posts. Even the ones we *disagreed on. HAH! The feeling is mutual. I am definitely feeling more upbeat on January, this warm December could be a blessing in disguise. I went back and looked at our top 10 warmest Decembers and there wasn't any correlation, there was 4 or 5 really good Jan/Feb with above average snowfall and there was 4 or 5 clunkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 HAH! The feeling is mutual. I am definitely feeling more upbeat on January, this warm December could be a blessing in disguise. I went back and looked at our top 10 warmest Decembers and there wasn't any correlation, there was 4 or 5 really good Jan/Feb with above average snowfall and there was 4 or 5 clunkers. I can dig that. My only real concern at this point is the fact that true long waves still haven't materialized in the NH (when was the last real long wave modeled?). I want to see the PAC stop spewing so many short waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I can dig that. My only real concern at this point is the fact that true long waves still haven't materialized in the NH (when was the last real long wave modeled?). I want to see the PAC stop spewing so many short waves. Good point, there seems to be SW after SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Good point, there seems to be SW after SW. That - to me - is the only striking similarity to last winter that has kept my judgement reserved for now. In my opinion, models can't truly handle what may happen down stream in such a hyper active flow. Someone give the PAC some damn Ritalin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I like how much activity we are getting now. Lots of systems to roll through. We might not get any snow around here for Christmas, but if the pattern keeps staying as active as it is now, I think things look really good for something around here after Christmas and into January. We don't need an extreme arctic outbreak, either. Just get the temps cold enough when one of the systems rolls through, and maybe even get it to bomb just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 And why you may never see rain again Actually, you are talking run of the mill yard moles. Weather moles have sort of a glow about them and lightening flashes from their eyes, when excited. Kittys don't have a chance against weather moles. T Yeah, pretty sure my cats aren't bringing weather moles to my front door. My cat gets scared when the rocking chair on the front porch moves, so pretty confident if they saw lightening flashing from the eyes of moles I'd never see them again. I really would like to the glow and lightening from them though....sounds like an amazing sight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Allan Huffman saying Christmas day looks cold and damp. Ugh. I'd rather have a torch than 40s and rain. Then he said there could be storms on the 26th. He doesn't seem very optimistic about the cold in the southeast, though. Said it will be a cooler pattern, but the biggest impact will be in the west and central US. http://www.examiner.com/article/midwest-snowstorm-unfolding-christmas-week-storm-shifts-east?CID=examiner_alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Please be nice to Brick. Please. He is a nice dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I like how much activity we are getting now. Lots of systems to roll through. We might not get any snow around here for Christmas, but if the pattern keeps staying as active as it is now, I think things look really good for something around here after Christmas and into January. We don't need an extreme arctic outbreak, either. Just get the temps cold enough when one of the systems rolls through, and maybe even get it to bomb just off the coast. I'm willing to bet that you could actually explain why this might be the case. Come on - dig deep into that well of weather words you've no doubt absorbed over the years. Why is it good to have an active southern stream going into January and on through February. What starts to play more in our favor? This is your chance Brick. This is an opportunity to show your greatness. And it's really a simple answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm willing to bet that you could actually explain why this might be the case. Come on - dig deep into that well of weather words you've no doubt absorbed over the years. Why is it good to have an active southern stream going into January and on through February. What starts to play more in our favor? This is your chance Brick. This is an opportunity to show your greatness. And it's really a simple answer. Actually, the simplest answer is sometimes the best. The more activity there is, the more chances we will see snow. Also, January is usually colder. More activity and instability plus colder air equals a better chance to see snow. If the pattern was just quite, then there would be less chances to get something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Actually, the simplest answer is sometimes the best. The more activity there is, the more chances we will see snow. Also, January is usually colder. More activity and instability plus colder air equals a better chance to see snow. If the pattern was just quite, then there would be less chances to get something out of it. Well...that's definitely an answer. And in fairness, I suppose you did actually hit the main point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I wonder if DT will be throwing the 12Z GFS out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Sounds like the 12z GFS went bonkers and was way off from the 0z. Someone said it gave RDU some backend snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That eagle video is terrifying. That could have been a tragedy. Good thing it's fake, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Sounds like the 12z GFS went bonkers and was way off from the 0z. Someone said it gave RDU some backend snow, though. Yeah, and it's pretty awesome. I've already got 4 feet of post truncated snow for the season. You should see the colony of the truncated snowmen in my yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yeah, and it's pretty awesome. I've already got 4 feet of post truncated snow for the season. You should the colony of the truncated snowmen in my yard! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 And why you may never see rain again Actually, you are talking run of the mill yard moles. Weather moles have sort of a glow about them and lightening flashes from their eyes, when excited. Kittys don't have a chance against weather moles. T You don't know my cats. They hunt in a pack. Moles, mice, rats, rabbits, squirrels and one possum. I admit, the possum was a surprise and based on the wounds put up quite a fight.. A "glow mole" wouldn't faze them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yeah, and it's pretty awesome. I've already got 4 feet of post truncated snow for the season. You should the colony of the truncated snowmen in my yard! I have the proof: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have the proof: Haha, nice! Bravo, Bevo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Any reason why the GFS was so different this run? Are the models just having a hard time with all the activity going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Any reason why the GFS was so different this run? Are the models just having a hard time with all the activity going on? Models always perform best when nothing is gong on. Of course so does a Think of the models as insurance agents, always around except when you really need them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So how far out can we really depend on the models when there is a very active pattern around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 As long as we keep a wetter pattern going,that's a good thing.most of the SE needs all the rain we can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So how far out can we really depend on the models when there is a very active pattern around? 48-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So how far out can we really depend on the models when there is a very active pattern around? 48-72 hours I guess the rest is just for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 48-72 hours Yes, but with some caveats. For generalities, but not specifics, in that time frame the models often do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Good thing it's fake, then. Yep. http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/198830/viral-video-of-baby-snatching-eagle-declared-a-fake/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hard to tell what is going to happen for sure with the wild swings the models are taking from run to run. The active pattern is going to play havoc on trying to nail down things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hard to tell what is going to happen for sure with the wild swings the models are taking from run to run. The active pattern is going to play havoc on trying to nail down things. It's gonna rain not snow...the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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