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December Banter


WilkesboroDude

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I've seen nice blocking show up on the Euro in the 192-240 range a couple of time now...nice healthy west-based blocking. Can't recall seeing a large, sprawling 50/50 though, although I believe we've seen a couple of Eastern Canada bombs...but they have either not been so wrapped up or have moved on out pretty quickly.

But you're right about the GFS. It's shown some fabulous 300+ patterns. I mean just awesome stuff man.

It seems both the GFS and the EURO keep moving the goalposts on us this year. They're in cahoots. Frankly I don't believe the newest EURO run either.

I've yet to see a modeled winter storm on any model posted other than something that was 240 hours out or so. I was a bit surprised to see 10 pages of speculation over the weekend. It seemed like there would be something more substantial up and coming.

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It seems both the GFS and the EURO keep moving the goalposts on us this year. They're in cahoots. Frankly I don't believe the newest EURO run either.

I've yet to see a modeled winter storm on any model posted other than something that was 240 hours out or so. I was a bit surprised to see 10 pages of speculation over the weekend. It seemed like there would be something more substantial up and coming.

It's the same old song.

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It seems both the GFS and the EURO keep moving the goalposts on us this year. They're in cahoots. Frankly I don't believe the newest EURO run either.

I've yet to see a modeled winter storm on any model posted other than something that was 240 hours out or so. I was a bit surprised to see 10 pages of speculation over the weekend. It seemed like there would be something more substantial up and coming.

I'll tell you what I do keep seeing...that trough just off the west coast. Yuck.

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im sorry, but when the euro starts to fold to the GFS this far out that's shocking. First it was the gulf, then TN, and now OH. no no, trends are going in the wrong direction. i have written this storm off for winter precip for the piedmont of NC.

Positives of the low:

-Drought relief

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It seems both the GFS and the EURO keep moving the goalposts on us this year. They're in cahoots. Frankly I don't believe the newest EURO run either.

I've yet to see a modeled winter storm on any model posted other than something that was 240 hours out or so. I was a bit surprised to see 10 pages of speculation over the weekend. It seemed like there would be something more substantial up and coming.

The Model Hours Mantra

If the first number is 3,

don't mention it to me.

When it's down to 2,

it still will be a screw.

Only when it's 1,

do we have a chance of fun.

But when that digit's gone,

oh baby bring it on.

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The Model Hours Mantra

If the first number is 3,

don't mention it to me.

When it's down to 2,

it still will be a screw.

Only when it's 1,

do we have a chance of fun.

But when that digit's gone,

oh baby bring it on.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner! The Model Hours Mantra, an original piece by jburns, takes the blue ribbon at the First Annual Winter American Weather Board Poetry Slam! Handshakes and high fives all around...

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im sorry, but when the euro starts to fold to the GFS this far out that's shocking. First it was the gulf, then TN, and now OH. no no, trends are going in the wrong direction. i have written this storm off for winter precip for the piedmont of NC.

Positives of the low:

-Drought relief

When exactly did the Euro cave to the GFS? If anything the GFS has been caving to the Euro the last couple of runs. This last Euro run has been the only one that has looked like the GFS run two days ago. Let's get one thing straight the Euro might be correct today but to say it has caved to the GFS is a little silly given the actual trend of the GFS lately moving towards the Euro.

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The 10 days aren't up yet...As far as I know we are still discussing a storm that is 8+ days away.

LOL why? Its not like it's actually going to happen. There has been talk of a storm 8+ for like a month now. It isn't any worse than DT calling for the 1st major east coast snowstorm on Dec 26-27th. I'm ready for this too happen up in the. :rolleyes:

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When exactly did the Euro cave to the GFS? If anything the GFS has been caving to the Euro the last couple of runs. This last Euro run has been the only one that has looked like the GFS run two days ago. Let's get one thing straight the Euro might be correct today but to say it has caved to the GFS is a little silly given the actual trend of the GFS lately moving towards the Euro.

I am not going to argue who caved to who but the Euro obviously had a huge change from the previous runs to todays 12z run. So is Euro leading the way or is it being inconsistent, nobody knows that answer yet...But IMO, I think the Euro is leading the way now, probably windshield wiping for a few runs, I think it's a very small chance this doesn't cut up into the OV and reform in the NE somewhere, maybe over NY...

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The Model Hours Mantra

If the first number is 3,

don't mention it to me.

When it's down to 2,

it still will be a screw.

Only when it's 1,

do we have a chance of fun.

But when that digit's gone,

oh baby bring it on.

That's pretty good; not a bad rule to live by.

My biggest disappointment is we can't get the pacific to change. Not torn up about the storm next week, I just want to see some hope for January but nothing is getting any closer.

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I've just been lurking but it sure seems like BrierCreekWx is just wishcasting. Every model run just makes him/her look more and more clueless.

It's not like he is calling for it...he is letting us know the possibilities...which are fair since this is a like 9 day storm. If he was overly optimistic two days out, yea he might be.

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It's not like he is calling for it...he is letting us know the possibilities...which are fair since this is a like 9 day storm. If he was overly optimistic two days out, yea he might be.

Agreed, he wasn't "wishcasting".....All this is going to do is not post anymore if people try to call him out.

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LOL why? Its not like it's actually going to happen. There has been talk of a storm 8+ for like a month now. It isn't any worse than DT calling for the 1st major east coast snowstorm on Dec 26-27th. I'm ready for this too happen up in the. :rolleyes:

You're right, it probably won't happen but it's what we do on a weather board... :santa: . I haven't seen any forecasts for a storm on 12/27. All I have seen is discussions on possibilities. I think that's where a lot of people get confused when reading this forum (I'm not talking about you directly). It is a weather forum and we discuss weather. If all we did here was wait 2 days before a storm and make a forecast then that wouldn't be any fun. Half the fun is tracking and discussing possibilities imo.

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I don't think BrierCreek is really wishcasting. He's doing a lot of this might happen, maybe, if this happen this will happen kind of thing, though. I saw on the forecast thread, though, that the DT dude was ripping him, which is uncalled for. That guy just seems like a jerk most of the time.

I think it was more of a pattern recognition thing and I appreciated it, I enjoy the optimism.

It's just the models aren't following the "general pattern" and as was mentioned lately, it seems like the southeast ridge is too strong and it's forcing the storm up to the mid-west. That answered some questions for me since I was wondering why the storm track would go that way when blocking was evident. Didn't think of the ridge to the SE.

Didn't DT argue FOR a big storm too, with the whole invincible Rex block argument? Why would he try to discredit someone that was actually more or less agreeing with his forecast? I'm lost on that one. I hope BrierCreek doesn't stop posting, the more educated minds I can learn from the better....

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Agreed, he wasn't "wishcasting".....All this is going to do is not post anymore if people try to call him out.

Agreed. Nothing wrong with said red tagger.

I am curious however, as to why a certain red tagged member seems to have engaged your "posting mode" (Snow86). It's almost as if you came in looking for a certain response (I happened across your trail in the December Discussion as well).

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Agreed. Nothing wrong with said red tagger.

I am curious however, as to why a certain red tagged member seems to have engaged your "posting mode" (Snow86). It's almost as if you came in looking for a certain response (I happened across your trail in the December Discussion as well).

I think there are bollocks afoot Mr. Bevo...

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Apparently BrierCreek is a coward because I'm noticing he deleted all of his posts -- he must not believe in his forecasts too much after all. Frankly, I won't miss his wishcasts if he doesn't post any more.

Who cares? He can have his thoughts and choose to either defend them or not, or delete all his posts. What do you care? I swear some people get way too worked up about opinions on the internet, it's silly. Maybe he was just done with the forum and decided to remove any trace of his account, some people do that with their online presence. Of course, I literally have no idea what happened or what transpired to cause all this drama...I just know it's a freakin' weather forum for heavens sake.

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