Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just my contribution to the poetry slam! If it's snow you want, It's snow you'll get Whether an inch or two or more On fantasy runs Long range maps And all else that's in store If we don't like what we see Wait for another run Or just walk out of the door The winter storm thread watch Is played out this way And this thread is never a bore! Weather haiku: Watch weather models GFS and the Euro Staying up all night If you're waiting for snow, from the Southeast's weather, you'd have better luck, tickling your ass with a feather. T'was The Night Just Minutes Before A Snowstorm Twas the night of the NAM run when all through the house A computer was buzzing with hand on the mouse There sat a weenie in his new leather chair the door was wide open letting in all the cold air Widre was typing with monitor aglow Complaining about Durham and it's lack of snow His Mom was screaming and yelling to him "It's too dark in that basement, get to a gym!" Just a few days before Kign Euro stood Cheez had even changed "meh" to "Good" "Boom" it had went with the perfect track But now it seemed that there were some cracks Brick was looking at radar and getting scared He'd heard about convection and wasn't prepared Five posted and warned he tried to be generic Speaking to only weenies he remained esoteric When out of the darkness a great clatter of keyboards began typing Someone had seen a snow flake down stream and many were yapping The board became strained and much of it slowed Wow did what he could but we were in "Storm Mode" The Mets they tried to calm everyone down But the trolls were out and making their rounds Lookout and WeatherNC came with their ban hammers The trolls with their talk began to stumble and stammer As all hope was lost the snow began Radar was back filling and going to plan Pictures were taken and shared in many a thread "Your wife will be happy with four inches" jburns said The mood had reversed and all were excited Even the naysayers didn't feel slighted As the snow ended, it was such a sight Happy snowstorm to all, and to all a good night. Snow overcast clouds in the air a morning chill with no despair kids go to school who were they to fool light flakes begin to fall and all hope begins to brawl Snow - - Thank-you. Thank-you. There once was a met from Nantuckett He said "if you want any snow you must truck it". The weenies did wail but was to no avail. We need Mr. Grimes and a big buckett Well done, ladies and gentlemen. Well done indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 well since all the talk in the discussion seems to be about the potential winter storm, it seems it warrants it's own thread. or would that be too premature XD More like unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 More like unnecessary. oh my XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just for sh**s and giggles, the official christmas storm of 2010 thread was started on dec 19th. so there's still plenty of time for this thing to trend for better or for worse. i just went back and read through the threads and man, the night of the 20th was a fun set of model runs with foothills doing the play by play of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well done, ladies and gentlemen. Well done indeed! Taking my bow....thank you, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's time for some DRASTIC measures: http://www.skisoutheast.com/article.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Before someone does so, please refrain from posting a snow map from the storm at 348hrs on the 12z GFS thank you lol Nvm thought it was gonna bomb off coast, just rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Where's Brick? 12z was a good step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Glad there is some optimism in the forecast thread from the 12z GFS. Cause it looks like crap to me, but of course I don't know much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Glad there is some optimism in the forecast thread from the 12z GFS. Cause it looks like crap to me, but of course I don't know much. It looks like crap verbatim I agree, but it's all about trends I suppose. At the end of the day it's only guidance, which sucks for us with no real meteorological training lol. Wish I knew more about pattern development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It looks like crap verbatim I agree, but it's all about trends I suppose. At the end of the day it's only guidance, which sucks for us with no real meteorological training lol. Wish I knew more about pattern development. It does come out weird really....I mean after truncation you get a wall of water and then it splits to two lows....I'm a bit confused how that happens, but again like you said with no meteorological training it's like pissing up a rope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 People are desperate for something and are missing the obvious lack of snow/ice/sleet potential in the next 2 weeks in most of the SE. It's getting kind of old. I wish there was more talk of severe storm potential as this seems very likely over the next few weeks. The pattern looks very spring-like to me. The cold is not even close on any model. I don't know what people are looking for in this. Let's talk about the real threats and less about what we wish would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If you feel lead, please start a thread about anything you wish.. People are desperate for something and are missing the obvious lack of snow/ice/sleet potential in the next 2 weeks in most of the SE. It's getting kind of old. I wish there was more talk of severe storm potential as this seems very likely over the next few weeks. The pattern looks very spring-like to me. The cold is not even close on any model. I don't know what people are looking for in this. Let's talk about the real threats and less about what we wish would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 People are desperate for something and are missing the obvious lack of snow/ice/sleet potential in the next 2 weeks in most of the SE. It's getting kind of old. I wish there was more talk of severe storm potential as this seems very likely over the next few weeks. The pattern looks very spring-like to me. The cold is not even close on any model. I don't know what people are looking for in this. Let's talk about the real threats and less about what we wish would happen. Well of course if you don't count the Euro, GFS, Canadian, or CFS....but sure no model shows cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Once again...living run by run. 12Z GFS great! Step in the right direction...12Z Euro....not so great. Let it get closer. Every model is showing something different essentially. This is repeating so much but I feel it needs to keep being repeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And the Euro looks bad, I really don't see much of a chance for anyone in the SE to score anything?? I'm not posting that in the forecast thread, I'm sure I'd get ripped a new one. I don't see any HP for much CAD at all on the 12z GFS. Hope I'm wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And the Euro looks bad, I really don't see much of a chance for anyone in the SE to score anything?? I'm not posting that in the forecast thread, I'm sure I'd get ripped a new one. I don't see any HP for much CAD at all on the 12z GFS. Hope I'm wrong though I don't see why anyone would rip you a new one. As far as I'm concerned it's just something fun to watch for once now that it's winter. As I've said before if we get something it's just a bonus anyways and if we don't get anything well the runs are still great because the cold is coming. Now we might have to worry about too much cold lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And the Euro looks bad, I really don't see much of a chance for anyone in the SE to score anything?? I'm not posting that in the forecast thread, I'm sure I'd get ripped a new one. I don't see any HP for much CAD at all on the 12z GFS. Hope I'm wrong though You are not. So far this season, we have seen several instances in the LR where the models show these strong blocks and nice big fat eastern Canada/ 50-50 lows with nice potential for energy sliding underneath. Usually this has been in the 10+ time range. Now, for this event, this has been somewhat depicted in the 9-11 day period or so. And for what ever reason, probably mostly having to do with the Pac jet, those features vanish or move out as we get closer. Now, you could argue that the pattern is different now, and in some respects you'd be right. But you also have to respect that so far, this has NOT been a season where the models are greatly underplaying the strength and southward positioning of the 50/50, like we sometimes see during winter. Instead, it's been the opposite. Now, all that can certainly change going forward. And I will be watching for evidence of it. But until that time, the safe bet is to err on the side of less wintry weather and more on the side of rain. And at least we're getting some periods of badly needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yes, I am new to the Gulf Coast but I didn't think I would see this type of AFD wording this far south anytime soon haha... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 500 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER WILL UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS. THE OFFICIAL START OF WINTER IS FRIDAY MORNING AND THE WEATHER PATTERN THE FIRST WEEK OF WINTER MAY ACTUALLY LIVE UP TO ITS SEASONAL BILLING. RECENT NPW ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL EVOLVE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE INTERCONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK...TAKING A DEEP TROUGH (WITH A FOLLOWING VERY COLD AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE) ACROSS TEXAS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BIT TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER WEATHER IS ON THE RISE ON OR AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE DAYS UNFOLD...THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE HOLIDAY. NO RAIN UNTIL MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING. THE DAYS LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS WILL BECOME MILD...WINDIER AND MORE HUMID...WITH INCREASING RAIN PROBABILITIES. RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUN-TO-RUN EXTENDED PROGS ALL INDICATE A VERY WET PATTERN JUST BEFORE...DURING ...AND POSSIBLY AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY. THE LATTER PROGNOSTICATION IS INTERESTING AS...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A DEEP UPPER LOW SUGGESTS WINTRY PRECIPITATION. ALL CLICHES ASIDE...BUT STAY TUNED! 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You are not. So far this season, we have seen several instances in the LR where the models show these strong blocks and nice big fat eastern Canada/ 50-50 lows with nice potential for energy sliding underneath. Usually this has been in the 10+ time range. Now, for this event, this has been somewhat depicted in the 9-11 day period or so. And for what ever reason, probably mostly having to do with the Pac jet, those features vanish or move out as we get closer. Now, you could argue that the pattern is different now, and in some respects you'd be right. But you also have to respect that so far, this has NOT been a season where the models are greatly underplaying the strength and southward positioning of the 50/50, like we sometimes see during winter. Instead, it's been the opposite. Now, all that can certainly change going forward. And I will be watching for evidence of it. But until that time, the safe bet is to err on the side of less wintry weather and more on the side of rain. And at least we're getting some periods of badly needed rain. Question though, when has it showed up on the Euro OP? I can't seem to recall it though I may be wrong. It was always the GFS out past 300 hours that was showing it. For once we're getting it coming closer and closer and not always showing up the next day at 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You are not. So far this season, we have seen several instances in the LR where the models show these strong blocks and nice big fat eastern Canada/ 50-50 lows with nice potential for energy sliding underneath. Usually this has been in the 10+ time range. Now, for this event, this has been somewhat depicted in the 9-11 day period or so. And for what ever reason, probably mostly having to do with the Pac jet, those features vanish or move out as we get closer. Now, you could argue that the pattern is different now, and in some respects you'd be right. But you also have to respect that so far, this has NOT been a season where the models are greatly underplaying the strength and southward positioning of the 50/50, like we sometimes see during winter. Instead, it's been the opposite. Now, all that can certainly change going forward. And I will be watching for evidence of it. But until that time, the safe bet is to err on the side of less wintry weather and more on the side of rain. And at least we're getting some periods of badly needed rain. You need to start a post christmas storm thread, then maybe the models will follow your lead... We need somebody to take the lead and don't look back!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Question though, when has it showed up on the Euro OP? I can't seem to recall it though I may be wrong. It was always the GFS out past 300 hours that was showing it. For once we're getting it coming closer and closer and not always showing up the next day at 300. I've seen nice blocking show up on the Euro in the 192-240 range a couple of time now...nice healthy west-based blocking. Can't recall seeing a large, sprawling 50/50 though, although I believe we've seen a couple of Eastern Canada bombs...but they have either not been so wrapped up or have moved on out pretty quickly. But you're right about the GFS. It's shown some fabulous 300+ patterns. I mean just awesome stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You need to start a post christmas storm thread, then maybe the models will follow your lead... We need somebody to take the lead and don't look back!!! Lol Post Christmas, I might just do that! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The models are terrible in the longrange. They might get it right 1 out of 100 times. I don't know why we even bother looking past 7 days. The big one is always shown 10 days out and it never happens. When are we going to keep falling for this junk? It doesn't look like we're going to have any winter weather this month. Hopefully, we'll get something big in January. I think we'll either have one huge storm or nothing at all here this winter. That's just the way it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 This storm ( if there even is one) is still 180+ hours out. I don't see why people get so excited or dissapointed when it's this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Question though, when has it showed up on the Euro OP? I can't seem to recall it though I may be wrong. It was always the GFS out past 300 hours that was showing it. For once we're getting it coming closer and closer and not always showing up the next day at 300. It showed some CAD last night, and of course the blocking and cold in the LR right? I don't think it's ever had a major winter storm for the SE. Of course the ensembles will lure us all back in. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The models are terrible in the longrange. They might get it right 1 out of 100 times. I don't know why we even bother looking past 7 days. The big one is always shown 10 days out and it never happens. When are we going to keep falling for this junk? It doesn't look like we're going to have any winter weather this month. Hopefully, we'll get something big in January. I think we'll either have one huge storm or nothing at all here this winter. That's just the way it is now. LOL, who was falling for it? I don't see anybody calling for snow. Only people on a weather forum disscussing the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LOL, who was falling for it? I don't see anybody calling for snow. Only people on a weather forum disscussing the possibilities. Haha! Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LOL, who was falling for it? I don't see anybody calling for snow. Only people on a weather forum disscussing the possibilities. It just gets old when those possibilities never materialize 10 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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