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December Banter

WilkesboroDude

By WilkesboroDude,
in Southeastern States

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

There's one thing about it, DT likes the GFS... lol

Yesterday at midday the Wednesday 12Z GFS had the East Coast low so far inland that it drove the rain snow line as far inland as Pittsburgh and Central New York State. Now 24 hours later this new run of the 12z GFS takes the East Coast low dramatically OFF the coast and out to sea!!! *** I have said this before many times I will say it again. When it comes to East Coast weather ... from 4 days to 10 days... especially in the cold months ...I LOATHE the GFS model. It is a awful totally unreliable inconsistent model for East Coast weather in general and especially with significant East Coast storm possibilities. **8

I don't trust when the model shows a major snowstorm ...and I don't trust the one it shows the Low going out to sea. I dont not trust when it shows a sunny days ... I do not trusted by the Bay.

I do not like green eggs and ham ... I do not like the GFS ..Sam I am Like · · Share · 346 · 9 minutes ago ·

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I can at least feel the neutral vibe - but given the last 6-8 months of where it has been, I don't think it will have an overall positive look. I would expect it to even go negative again before ever reaching a sustained positive stance.

I agree. This looks like a trend toward neutral then again slightly negative as we go into the LR...even if that verified and we are still more on the neutral side...that graphic isn't always right either, even with the ensembles check out early to mid Nov!

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

There's one thing about it, DT likes the GFS... lol

Yesterday at midday the Wednesday 12Z GFS had the East Coast low so far inland that it drove the rain snow line as far inland as Pittsburgh and Central New York State. Now 24 hours later this new run of the 12z GFS takes the East Coast low dramatically OFF the coast and out to sea!!! *** I have said this before many times I will say it again. When it comes to East Coast weather ... from 4 days to 10 days... especially in the cold months ...I LOATHE the GFS model. It is a awful totally unreliable inconsistent model for East Coast weather in general and especially with significant East Coast storm possibilities. **8

I don't trust when the model shows a major snowstorm ...and I don't trust the one it shows the Low going out to sea. I dont not trust when it shows a sunny days ... I do not trusted by the Bay.

I do not like green eggs and ham ... I do not like the GFS ..Sam I am Like · · Share · 346 · 9 minutes ago ·

He too was thinking this storm was going to be inland west of the apps now he threw out a "I was wrong" apology on his facebook...a little too soon for that, he should have waited til the storm passed at least haha...but at least he says he's wrong when he is! GFS is tugging on his heart strings because it showed an inland track lol, GFS flops more than a fish out of water

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I think the trends are looking good. Even if we don't have a long period of frigid cold this winter, all we need is it to be cold enough when one of these storm systems rolls by. I actually think we have better luck when the temps are just below freezing when it comes to snow around here. A couple of years ago we had a vert bitter February with record cold and nothing to show for it. I really think we might have a lot of up and down this winter with a very active pattern. That could give us some shots at some big snow if we get everything together right.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

Posted
Posted

I think the trends are looking good. Even if we don't have a long period of frigid cold this winter, all we need is it to be cold enough when one of these storm systems rolls by. I actually think we have better luck when the temps are just below freezing when it comes to snow around here. A couple of years ago we had a vert bitter February with record cold and nothing to show for it. I really think we might have a lot of up and down this winter with a very active pattern. That could give us some shots at some big snow if we get everything together right.

Yep, I'd rather have the sustained cold and hope for a system to roll through than have plenty of precip and be praying for it to get cold enough.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

12z European model hints at the potential coming of a severe cold air outbreak and possible major winter storm pattern for the eastern US near Christmas. The huge caveat being that this is a 240 hr forecast, but folks if this is showing up in 5 days I'll be sounding the alarms and shining up the ol' snow shoes! Potential for major phasing down the road looks significant between energy diving down the western ridge and whenever that energy in the Pacific starts to move eastward. It's highly possible the ECMWF is holding back that energy too much already, which if true, could make things *very* interesting for the 12/23 - 25 period.

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I thought it was a forgetful man. You know, the one that can't find anything without being told exactly where it is, or doesn't bring home items from the grocery store because he got distracted by something shiny :lol:

Dang! I was going to tell Mr. Burns about ticks, and how I seem to get 'em when I go into the woods, whether it's 50 or 15, and how I think we need some sustained -30 temps to do anything to the critters....but I was watching this shiny thing, and forgot to write. And there it is again... wow....

ok..... where was I? ....what was I doing? Oh, yeah, something about the importance of being good at Xmas...... T

badsanta.jpg

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Well, maybe we are due for it to happen again. I don't think having a good pattern is all it is cracked up to be. We have had good patterns before that didn't really give us anything. We have had winters with well below temps that didn't give us much snow, only a couple of storms that ended up being above average. It seems since that snow it has been all or nothing around here. I would love to see a pattern where we get snow storm after snow storm for a couple of weeks, but that doesn't seem to ever happen. I just think with this back and forth and so much activity going around that we could have something come together for a big storm, and then it could go right back to being in the 60s a few days later.

Brick,

1) Regarding the bolded, snow storm after snow storm for a couple of weeks in much of the nonmountainous south happens so rarely. I'm talking more than a one two punch. Now, in Atlanta, we had a one two punch of major ZR over back to back weekends in Jan. 2000 and a one two punch of major S/IP over three days during snowjam 1982. We had a one two punch of major ZR and IP over a two week period in 2/1979. Parts of Atlanta metro actually had a three bagger in March 1960 during just over one week. Atlanta had a one two punch of major ZR and 8-10" of S during a 16 day period in 1/1940. They had a three bagger in 12/1935-1/1936 with two ZR's within four days and then a big 8" S a month later. Prior to that, they had a one two punch over a month or so period 12/1917 to 1/1918 with major IP and then major ZR. They had two major ZR's over just a five day period in 2/1905. They had two major S's within five days during 2/1895. During Jan.-Feb. 1885 they had a major ZR followed by a four day siege with major S/IP about three weeks later.

So, Atlanta has had 2 three-baggers of MAJOR wintry precip. storms since 1879 (about once every 65 years) and 10 two to three-baggers of MAJOR winter storms within no longer than a month's elapsed time since 1879 (about once every 13 years). Is Atlanta "due"? Well, it has been 13 years. So, another one real soon would be at about the average return period. However, the longest period of time between two two+ bagger periods was 20 years (1/1940 to 3/1960). Next longest 19 years (3/1960 to 2/1979). Third longest 18 years: 1/1982 to 1/2000 and 12/1917-12/1935. So, based on this, maybe we'll get the next multi-bagger by 2019-20?

2) Please don't forget that we're now into the prime WOTY campaign period. All of your words are being read carefully as BB swing voters decide for whom they want to vote. Being that the swingers usually determine the election, it is crucial for you to get as many of their votes as is possible. So, I'd suggest that you act as weenily as possible even if you seem to be mellowing out somewhat and making excellent nonweenie posts.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

DT on Facebook - "anyone know where the same idiots from american weenie wx .com ... the ones that were giving me crap on Monday for NOT forecasting a GFS blizzard on DEC 19 ... are today? Bueller ? Bueller ?" :lmao:

He wasn't buying the GFS solutions of the low going east but instead threw out both the euro and the GFS solutions and called for a lake cutter. Then he said he's wrong and he's calling us weenies?

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Dang! I was going to tell Mr. Burns about ticks, and how I seem to get 'em when I go into the woods, whether it's 50 or 15, and how I think we need some sustained -30 temps to do anything to the critters....but I was watching this shiny thing, and forgot to write. And there it is again... wow....

ok..... where was I? ....what was I doing? Oh, yeah, something about the importance of being good at Xmas...... T

I get distracted by shiny things too :whistle:

I'm sure you are on Santa's nice list, and I hope you get the sleet you've been asking for :hug:

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Brick,

1) Regarding the bolded, snow storm after snow storm for a couple of weeks in much of the nonmountainous south happens so rarely. I'm talking more than a one two punch. Now, in Atlanta, we had a one two punch of major ZR over back to back weekends in Jan. 2000 and a one two punch of major S/IP over three days during snowjam 1982. We had a one two punch of major ZR and IP over a two week period in 2/1979. Parts of Atlanta metro actually had a three bagger in March 1960 during just over one week. Atlanta had a one two punch of major ZR and 8-10" of S during a 16 day period in 1/1940. They had a three bagger in 12/1935-1/1936 with two ZR's within four days and then a big 8" S a month later. Prior to that, they had a one two punch over a month or so period 12/1917 to 1/1918 with major IP and then major ZR. They had two major ZR's over just a five day period in 2/1905. They had two major S's within five days during 2/1895. During Jan.-Feb. 1885 they had a major ZR followed by a four day siege with major S/IP about three weeks later.

So, Atlanta has had 2 three-baggers of MAJOR wintry precip. storms since 1879 (about once every 65 years) and 10 two to three-baggers of MAJOR winter storms within no longer than a month's elapsed time since 1879 (about once every 13 years). Is Atlanta "due"? Well, it has been 13 years. So, another one real soon would be at about the average return period. However, the longest period of time between two two+ bagger periods was 20 years (1/1940 to 3/1960). Next longest 19 years (3/1960 to 2/1979). Third longest 18 years: 1/1982 to 1/2000 and 12/1917-12/1935. So, based on this, maybe we'll get the next multi-bagger by 2019-20?

2) Please don't forget that we're now into the prime WOTY campaign period. All of your words are being read carefully as BB swing voters decide for whom they want to vote. Being that the swingers usually determine the election, it is crucial for you to get as many of their votes as is possible. So, I'd suggest that you act as weenily as possible even if you seem to be mellowing out somewhat and making excellent nonweenie posts.

Weenily....todays best new word!!! Use in a sentence. "Has Brick been acting weenily enough lately"? I don't think so...in fact I've seen more than one sensible post from him lately. and it's scaring more than a few of us. Larry, it might be time for an intervention. T

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Dang! I was going to tell Mr. Burns about ticks, and how I seem to get 'em when I go into the woods, whether it's 50 or 15, and how I think we need some sustained -30 temps to do anything to the critters....but I was watching this shiny thing, and forgot to write. And there it is again... wow....

ok..... where was I? ....what was I doing? Oh, yeah, something about the importance of being good at Xmas...... T

badsanta.jpg

I'll see your crapping Santa and raise two screwing dogs. Nothing like a family Christmas.

i-NMvBPQj-L.jpg

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

Weenily....todays best new word!!! Use in a sentence. "Has Brick been acting weenily enough lately"? I don't think so...in fact I've seen more than one sensible post from him lately. and it's scaring more than a few of us. Larry, it might be time for an intervention. T

He's in danger of losing his weeniologist tag.

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