Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice if it would work, but it doesn't. Tree pollen is lessoned by a mild winter followed by a late hard freeze that nips the early opening buds. Mosquitoes do fine in Maine, so a southern winter of any type isn't going to phase them. Drought is the best remedy, as it severely limits the standing water where mosquitoes lay their eggs.. You just had to go and run that north of yours didn't you? You know I'm messing with you. I will say that after last year's abysmal failure of a winter, I don't believe it's mere coincidence that pollen records were shattered and no amount of "Off" would buy any relief over the summer. But wisdom doth laugh at the fool's folly....or something like that. BTW saying "mosquitoes" for me is the same as when people refer to all soft drinks as "Coke". The lack of winter undoubtedly ushered in the Kudzu Beetle/Stinkbug coup d'état, as well as an insurgency of garden barbarians that were out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You just had to go and run that north of yours didn't you? You know I'm messing with you. I will say that after last year's abysmal failure of a winter, I don't believe it's mere coincidence that pollen records were shattered and no amount of "Off" would buy any relief over the summer. But wisdom doth laugh at the fool's folly....or something like that. BTW saying "mosquitoes" for me is the same as when people refer to all soft drinks as "Coke". The lack of winter undoubtedly ushered in the Kudzu Beetle/Stinkbug coup d'état, as well as an insurgency of garden barbarians that were out of control. Ah yes. The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug. From Asia. Somehow brought into PA in the 90s. No natural enemies here and spreading like a wildfire. I guess we better get used to it. The Kudzu Beetle, aka globular stink bug, is another illegal alien in the Southeast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Since when is cold rain an overstatement? hahaha who are you, Widre? I think cold rain is a fine statement and that's probably what the majority of people will see. If this trends to a lake cutter or something similar aka more west (east of the mountains, as you say), honestly, I'd be surprised. Blacksburg pulling a Wildre now... Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf)have similar tracks and pinpoint Monday for the wettest day. Lacking cold air so snow is not a concern. Considering recent history and model bias...wouldn't be surprised if this system ends up traveling west of the Appalachians. With this track...an easterly component develops and an insitu wedge is a possibility so trended temperatures for Monday cooler than the European model (ecmwf)/mex MOS. More variability towards the end of the long term with European model (ecmwf) spinning up a huge system up the coast. The GFS has pretty much nothing. With a Thumb Ridge poking from the New England coast through Hudson Bay there is a favorable pattern in place for another northerly track...however this system may also up tracking west of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ah yes. The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug. From Asia. Somehow brought into PA in the 90s. No natural enemies here and spreading like a wildfire. I guess we better get used to it. The Kudzu Beetle, aka globular stink bug, is another illegal alien in the Southeast.. Fire ants suck too. And they are all the time marching north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Very nice...If that continues my week off at Christmas will be nice. Good weather to be outside taking down Christmas decorations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Things are starting to look interesting as we head into Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hate to be negative but the signs are not looking good for the extended period. The NAO looks to be going positive, PNA stays negative, and the AO looks to be going towards positive. I love cold and snow but what the 6z GFS showed this morning might be the most accurate look to the future. I really hope I'm wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hate to be negative but the signs are not looking good for the extended period. The NAO looks to be going positive, PNA stays negative, and the AO looks to be going towards positive. I love cold and snow but what the 6z GFS showed this morning might be the most accurate look to the future. I really hope I'm wrong.. Agreed, which is why I have been perceived as being negative on this winter as it will be very hard to get an extended period of a good pattern. But, I still feel the 10-15 day period could give us a chance and hopefully we can get a couple of more windows like this in Jan/Feb. I think this will be the winter where we get a wintery event and than 2 days later its 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hate to be negative but the signs are not looking good for the extended period. The NAO looks to be going positive, PNA stays negative, and the AO looks to be going towards positive. I love cold and snow but what the 6z GFS showed this morning might be the most accurate look to the future. I really hope I'm wrong.. There is nothing negative in saying what the models are showing right now. It is not a death knell for the winter though. Still way plenty to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 As easy as things shifted in our favor for possible cold, they can shift in the other direction. Let it get closer before being so negative about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Agreed, which is why I have been perceived as being negative on this winter as it will be very hard to get an extended period of a good pattern. But, I still feel the 10-15 day period could give us a chance and hopefully we can get a couple of more windows like this in Jan/Feb. I think this will be the winter where we get a wintery event and than 2 days later its 60F. The funny thing is that seems like when we get our biggest snow storms. I don't think we need an extended period of cold to get a good snow. Just a few days and for everything to come together right. I think we might be seeing a lot of back and forth like that this winter. And when there is a lot of energy around and a lot of up and down, one extreme to the other, it can create some good storms. We might not get a lot of different storms, but we could get a couple of really good ones. I remember the winter of 2000 wasn't good overall, and the first few days in January even saw 70s. But we all know what happened later that month. There is still a lot of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The funny thing is that seems like when we get our biggest snow storms. I don't think we need an extended period of cold to get a good snow. Just a few days and for everything to come together right. I think we might be seeing a lot of back and forth like that this winter. And when there is a lot of energy around and a lot of up and down, one extreme to the other, it can create some good storms. We might not get a lot of different storms, but we could get a couple of really good ones. I remember the winter of 2000 wasn't good overall, and the first few days in January even saw 70s. But we all know what happened later that month. There is still a lot of winter left. Good post! You are very correct. Lots of winter to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good post! I was thinking the same thing. Did someone hack Brick's account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The funny thing is that seems like when we get our biggest snow storms. I don't think we need an extended period of cold to get a good snow. Just a few days and for everything to come together right. I think we might be seeing a lot of back and forth like that this winter. And when there is a lot of energy around and a lot of up and down, one extreme to the other, it can create some good storms. We might not get a lot of different storms, but we could get a couple of really good ones. I remember the winter of 2000 wasn't good overall, and the first few days in January even saw 70s. But we all know what happened later that month. There is still a lot of winter left. Meh, yeah that happened years ago (2000 was 12 years ago) but it hasn't happened recently. To get a good storm now it seems like we need a good pattern. Everything rarely just comes together for a few days anymore. That's like winning the lottery, yeah it can happen but what are the odds? If we can't keep the -NAO and fix the pacific I don't think we get much of anything. I don't like hearing the -NAO going away. I think that would be the end of winter if that goes positive and stays positive. Hopefully if it goes positive, it'll head right back down in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Meh, yeah that happened years ago (2000 was 12 years ago) but it hasn't happened recently. To get a good storm now it seems like we need a good pattern. Everything rarely just comes together for a few days anymore. That's like winning the lottery, yeah it can happen but what are the odds? If we can't keep the -NAO and fix the pacific I don't think we get much of anything. I don't like hearing the -NAO going away. I think that would be the end of winter if that goes positive and stays positive. Hopefully if it goes positive, it'll head right back down in January. Well, maybe we are due for it to happen again. I don't think having a good pattern is all it is cracked up to be. We have had good patterns before that didn't really give us anything. We have had winters with well below temps that didn't give us much snow, only a couple of storms that ended up being above average. It seems since that snow it has been all or nothing around here. I would love to see a pattern where we get snow storm after snow storm for a couple of weeks, but that doesn't seem to ever happen. I just think with this back and forth and so much activity going around that we could have something come together for a big storm, and then it could go right back to being in the 60s a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i have a quick question! This is my second year watching the models and i have come to wonder if the GFS is ran by a women? One day she decides maybe i want some cold.. no wait i need it warmer for my hair, well maybe cool weather would work! O NO gotst to have some cold! Well lets push it another week i just had my nails done and don't want the paint to crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Well, maybe we are due for it to happen again. Just curious, can you quantify what you mean by "due" in any meaningful way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 i have a quick question! This is my second year watching the models and i have come to wonder if the GFS is ran by a women? One day she decides maybe i want some cold.. no wait i need it warmer for my hair, well maybe cool weather would work! O NO gotst to have some cold! Well lets push it another week i just had my nails done and don't want the paint to crack. I thought it was a forgetful man. You know, the one that can't find anything without being told exactly where it is, or doesn't bring home items from the grocery store because he got distracted by something shiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I thought it was a forgetful man. You know, the one that can't find anything without being told exactly where it is, or doesn't bring home items from the grocery store because he got distracted by something shiny I have to admit I get distracted a lot!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Just curious, can you quantify what you mean by "due" in any meaningful way? Just saying maybe we are due for a big snow storm like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hate to be negative but the signs are not looking good for the extended period. The NAO looks to be going positive, PNA stays negative, and the AO looks to be going towards positive. I love cold and snow but what the 6z GFS showed this morning might be the most accurate look to the future. I really hope I'm wrong.. How do you see the NAO going into a positive state for an extended period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I have to admit I get distracted a lot!... Grocery stores are underrated for distractions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Meh, yeah that happened years ago (2000 was 12 years ago) but it hasn't happened recently. To get a good storm now it seems like we need a good pattern. Everything rarely just comes together for a few days anymore. That's like winning the lottery, yeah it can happen but what are the odds? If we can't keep the -NAO and fix the pacific I don't think we get much of anything. I don't like hearing the -NAO going away. I think that would be the end of winter if that goes positive and stays positive. Hopefully if it goes positive, it'll head right back down in January. Umm...how about weather patterns being cyclical? I'm not saying Brick is right here, but you can't prove him wrong either until the winter is all over and we can go back and evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I thought it was a forgetful man. You know, the one that can't find anything without being told exactly where it is, or doesn't bring home items from the grocery store because he got distracted by something shiny Ouch baby....very ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Agreed, which is why I have been perceived as being negative on this winter as it will be very hard to get an extended period of a good pattern. But, I still feel the 10-15 day period could give us a chance and hopefully we can get a couple of more windows like this in Jan/Feb. I think this will be the winter where we get a wintery event and than 2 days later its 60F. pack - you were very quiet there for a couple of days, and then had some positive things to say yesterday. I'm so confused and feel like I don't even know you anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 How do you see the NAO going into a positive state for an extended period? They are trending towards positive. I suppose you could say they are averaged towards neutral: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 They are trending towards positive. I suppose you could say they are averaged towards neutral: I can at least feel the neutral vibe - but given the last 6-8 months of where it has been, I don't think it will have an overall positive look. I would expect it to even go negative again before ever reaching a sustained positive stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Blacksburg pulling a Wildre now... Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf)have similar tracks and pinpoint Monday for the wettest day. Lacking cold air so snow is not a concern. Considering recent history and model bias...wouldn't be surprised if this system ends up traveling west of the Appalachians. With this track...an easterly component develops and an insitu wedge is a possibility so trended temperatures for Monday cooler than the European model (ecmwf)/mex MOS. More variability towards the end of the long term with European model (ecmwf) spinning up a huge system up the coast. The GFS has pretty much nothing. With a Thumb Ridge poking from the New England coast through Hudson Bay there is a favorable pattern in place for another northerly track...however this system may also up tracking west of the mountains. Still don't agree with the east of the mountain solution that you suggested and now that has NWS Blacksburg agreeing. Throw the 06z GFS out...someones riding the 00z and 06z GFS pretty hard it looks like. I just look a look at the 12z GFS after writing that sentence and what do you know, the low forms over E NC. VERY east and very moisture starved...no fun for anyone on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Grocery stores are underrated for distractions Agreed...I can go to the grocery store for 1 item, get distracted , and forget what I was there for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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