SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey everyone, it's been a while! I wanted to share with you that the State Climate Office of NC has started posting new blog entries on NC weather and climate news. I thought you guys might find their latest entry detailing how Siberian snowfall may impact the AO/NAO a good read. It's part of a series detailing different winter forecasting techniques that will end next Monday with their Winter 2012/13 outlook. October Siberian Snowfall May Shape NC Winters: http://nc-climate.nc...limateblog?id=5 That's very interesting, thanks. I knew there was a known coorelation in the rate of October snow growth in Siberia and the eastern US cold, but I was not aware they actually created an index for it. I also did not know it's been used since 98-99 and from the chart, it seems very accurate. I'll be very interested to see what this index calls for in regard to cold this year. It really does seem to have an accurate track record even though it's only been used for the last 10 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Liked · 2 hours ago RATS! More than just an expletive, it's the reason KFCX radar was down yesterday. A bored rat had gnawed through a fiber optic cable and cut communication with the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 That's very interesting, thanks. I knew there was a known coorelation in the rate of October snow growth in Siberia and the eastern US cold, but I was not aware they actually created an index for it. I also did not know it's been used since 98-99 and from the chart, it seems very accurate. I'll be very interested to see what this index calls for in regard to cold this year. It really does seem to have an accurate track record even though it's only been used for the last 10 years or so. The October Snow Advance Index this year was quite high. Not as high as 2009-2010, but not far off...and the AO is off to a negative start for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ha - Ha! I'll go back to my casual reading of a great weather forum now. Remember folks, "LESS IS MORE!" I self policed and reported myself. That might be some kind of first for AmericanWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The October Snow Advance Index this year was quite high. Not as high as 2009-2010, but not far off...and the AO is off to a negative start for Dec. Exxcellent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Liked · 2 hours ago RATS! More than just an expletive, it's the reason KFCX radar was down yesterday. A bored rat had gnawed through a fiber optic cable and cut communication with the radar. Ha, I just saw this on their Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The October Snow Advance Index this year was quite high. Not as high as 2009-2010, but not far off...and the AO is off to a negative start for Dec. Just to clarify, the index was high this October, but in the graph where they compare the AO to the Oct SAI, they have to reverse the sign of the SAI, so that it is a better visual representation of the correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey everyone, it's been a while! I wanted to share with you that the State Climate Office of NC has started posting new blog entries on NC weather and climate news. I thought you guys might find their latest entry detailing how Siberian snowfall may impact the AO/NAO a good read. It's part of a series detailing different winter forecasting techniques that will end next Monday with their Winter 2012/13 outlook. October Siberian Snowfall May Shape NC Winters: http://nc-climate.nc...limateblog?id=5 Welcome Back I've always enjoyed your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One good thing to note though it's far off is that the 12z continues to bring a system in around the 22 - 24th and on this run is a very good look for snow in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 12z in the LR is a fantastic look especially out to about 300+ you have real artic air starting to head south with systems rolling through the SE. If the Euro is still board we should rejoice at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 One good thing to note though it's far off is that the 12z continues to bring a system in around the 22 - 24th and on this run is a very good look for snow in the Carolinas. The 12z in the LR is a fantastic look especially out to about 300+ you have real artic air starting to head south with systems rolling through the SE. If the Euro is still board we should rejoice at this. Too bad it's so far out. It'll probably change every day between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As for the 19th storm it is back to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Maybe te system next week is just preparing the way for the other one around Christmas. It would be awesome to have some snow by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z system with cold rain for the majority of us is exactly what it think will happen. Path of low will not be east of the mtns but take a inland or somewhat coastal track. Regardless, not enough cold air to get into the action. Bring on Christmas! Although I'll be in WV for the majority of the holiday, figures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As for the 19th storm it is back to this: LOL! Well the day 10+ look of the GFS was the first run that is reason for some optimism for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Time to move the field goals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Time to move the field goals... The first system next week might just be setting the stage for the good stuff. From the discussion thread... I'm also in agreement that this first storm in the 12/18-19 range could really set the stage for a legitimate southern US winter storm threat in the 12-23 to 12-25 period. There is certainly no guarantees in the timing of individual short waves at 10 days out, but the 12z GFS looked legit in it's setup for the 12/23 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 The first system next week might just be setting the stage for the good stuff. From the discussion thread... It could. Still waiting on a system to produce quality precip east of the mountains. We could turn into a desert and never get moisture again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Robert calling for a significant chance of mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 As for the 19th storm it is back to this: LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Liked · 2 hours ago RATS! More than just an expletive, it's the reason KFCX radar was down yesterday. A bored rat had gnawed through a fiber optic cable and cut communication with the radar. Rats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Just saw this from WxSouth on facebook. New European run is doing what the GFS did a couple days ago, creating a Very strong Southeast Storm that looks to head up the East Coast. Rain and thunderstorms Southeast, turning to snow Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, perhaps Damming in the lee side of the Apps , with pressures dropping to 984 mb in eastern NC. Looks like an impressive storm, but not cold initially, so primarily rain storm that could end as snow. **edit...By Wednesday midday (1 week from now) the pressure has dropped to 976 in eastern VA and southern Maryland..Big time blizzard in the Apps with that track and strength if this run is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Time to party...the Euro says GAME ON for cold weather!....well for now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 But will it bring the snow along for the ride, too? I don't care about cold if it doesn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 But will it bring the snow along for the ride, too? I don't care about cold if it doesn't snow. gotta have the cold here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well in their defense there will only be like 8 days left of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 gotta have the cold here first. I know. Just saying it would be a waste if it doesn't snow, and if it isn't going to snow, I'd rather just stay warm. But it looks like the system the middle of next week could open up something good for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I love how some people on here "love" snow but don't want it to be cold unless we have snow to go along with it. Gots to have cold to get snow, give me cold first and I'll take my chances with any storm throwing precip on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I love how some people on here "love" snow but don't want it to be cold unless we have snow to go along with it. Gots to have cold to get snow, give me cold first and I'll take my chances with any storm throwing precip on top of it. Because cold without snow is a waste and is miserable. Snow is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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