WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 I actually thought it was a complete reversal viewing where the low was positioned around 140hrs but it's not too far off from previous runs other than being much warmer. This run would be an example of the cold rain I was mentioning earlier lol Much less qpf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I actually thought it was a complete reversal viewing where the low was positioned around 140hrs but it's not too far off from previous runs other than being much warmer. This run would be an example of the cold rain I was mentioning earlier lol The run looks good to me. At this range you're not going to take it verbatim. It is showing consistently some storm moving through at this time frame but the details won't be nailed down yet, and possibly not for a few more days. East TN gets a little back end snow out of it though, still. Now let's see how the rest of the run pans out. Remember what I said though? A while back I said that details after this current front (the one that just moved through) will be VERY hazy until it's over. Now the details are more consistent and it sees when the next storm will be. The GFS has a tendency in the short-mid range of being most consistent with the first front/storm on the horizon, then much less consistent on the next. It has to do with how the model is generated. If you want to see this more, look at the ensemble members. A good number of them are now showing a storm, but the range of where it will occur is still with a good degree of uncertainty. Be patient. The models don't determine what will happen, only the weather will as it happens. The models will only get closer and closer to reality as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 volkhorn= A man with wisdom.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS has no idea what it's doing. Toss it. I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 volkhorn= A man with wisdom.... Thanks but you might want to hold that thought for when I invariably stick my foot in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 GFS has no idea what it's doing. Toss it. I don't like it. Look at the generalities. You like the 384h GFS right? Look at the motherload of -30C that shows up across most of Canada by the end of the run. It could be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Thanks but you might want to hold that thought for when I invariably stick my foot in my mouth. Exhibit A: the very next post you make. Seriously saying that the 384 GFS might be onto something? Afters years, presumably, of watching the LR GFS flip and flop and generally be inaccurate in all seasons, but specially the winter? You have to be kidding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hr 168 of the euro should look good for someone. Previous frame (144) has a low at 1000mb over OK with cold air digging into it. Eager to see what the doc holds. The main system next week bombs off of MA, no dice for us in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And thank you sir! I tend to take a break (and go racing!) during the heat months, but I can't stay away from the cold and snow! Still very slowly getting all my pages converted while still adding more. Labor of love. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey Burger.. Why don't you *banter* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's great that the pattern is getting more active. We might not get anything here out of the system next week as far as winter weather goes, but I hope it's just the beginning of things to watch and will be setting us up for something good down the road. But if we get an active pattern and don't see any winter weather from it down the road, it's going to be very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I like how the PV is heading towards SE Canada in the LR, get some blocking we would be in business for early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I thought foothills would sound older. And I love the music in the beginning and end. Very dramatic! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sIjocrJTew&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 My annual "suppressed" rant..... 1. To put an end to forcibly; subdue. 2. To curtail or prohibit the activities of. 3. To keep from being revealed, published, or circulated. 4. To deliberately exclude (unacceptable desires or thoughts) from the mind. 5. To inhibit the expression of (an impulse, for example); check: suppress a smile. 6. To reduce the incidence or severity of (a hemorrhage or cough, for example); arrest. Matt Rogers used it today along with many other mets and thousands of weenies....I am not sure why a track along the gulf coast or though the south is suppressed. It is fairly common in the winter. To me the only good use of the word would be a strong polar jet squashing the STJ or a strong northern branch squashing a southern branch keeping anything from forming (a la cold and dry)....There is nothing suppressed about the storm the 00Z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We just need to have the cold air here for one of these lows coming up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey Burger.. Why don't you *banter* You came to the wrong neighborhood bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does anyone else feel like there is WAY TOO MUCH banter in the December Discussion Thread? Why have the banter thread if you aren't going to use it. More than half the overnight posts did not contribute positively to the discussion. It's a little frustrating. I don't want to report all of those posts to a moderator because many of those posters I have respect for and usually have valid and productive things to say. Maybe after the first storm threat, things will calm down a bit. Thanks for letting me vent a little here in the BANTER thread. Have a good day all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does anyone else feel like there is WAY TOO MUCH banter in the December Discussion Thread? Why have the banter thread if you aren't going to use it. More than half the overnight posts did not contribute positively to the discussion. It's a little frustrating. I don't want to report all of those posts to a moderator because many of those posters I have respect for and usually have valid and productive things to say. Maybe after the first storm threat, things will calm down a bit. Thanks for letting me vent a little here in the BANTER thread. Have a good day all! I agree it's out of control. Let me know if anything I posted doesn't belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Does anyone else feel like there is WAY TOO MUCH banter in the December Discussion Thread? Why have the banter thread if you aren't going to use it. More than half the overnight posts did not contribute positively to the discussion. It's a little frustrating. I don't want to report all of those posts to a moderator because many of those posters I have respect for and usually have valid and productive things to say. Maybe after the first storm threat, things will calm down a bit. Thanks for letting me vent a little here in the BANTER thread. Have a good day all! Yes, I agree. It's LESS than awesome to FINALLY see a multipage night finally occur and then to realize it's filled with nothing but banter after catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I agree it's out of control. Let me know if anything I posted doesn't belong. Hi Burger. I'm glad that you are seeing this too. I know it is easy for us to get caught up in an argument on a forum like this, especially when somebody says something stupid or that you don't agree with. Certain posters seems to encite a riot with some of their posts and everyone wants to jump in an argue or to get in a good jab or funny post. I just don't think that it should be in the main weather discussion thread. I would hope that we can keep out all of the clutter and keep the tone as positive and inviting as we have in the past. I don't want to lose any red taggers or others who are looking to have a reasonable discussion about the weather. Burger: Since you asked, I'll put your last post here. I am not trying to call you out or rant and rave. My intent is not to start anything. I am a very calm and patient person who has the best of intentions. One cannot always infer that from what is being typed on a computer screen. I always enjoy you posting information as the models roll in. Can't wait for the first late night Euro run where you say BOOM!!! Thanks for the insight. Guess that tells you how bad last winter is when there is reason to get excited if the Euro is showing temps in the 40's for more than two days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I posted a couple of times late last night in the Dec disco but yeah I feel like it you're having a heated personal argument, even if it is somewhat on topic of weather, it belongs here and not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey everyone, it's been a while! I wanted to share with you that the State Climate Office of NC has started posting new blog entries on NC weather and climate news. I thought you guys might find their latest entry detailing how Siberian snowfall may impact the AO/NAO a good read. It's part of a series detailing different winter forecasting techniques that will end next Monday with their Winter 2012/13 outlook. October Siberian Snowfall May Shape NC Winters: http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hi Burger. I'm glad that you are seeing this too. I know it is easy for us to get caught up in an argument on a forum like this, especially when somebody says something stupid or that you don't agree with. Certain posters seems to encite a riot with some of their posts and everyone wants to jump in an argue or to get in a good jab or funny post. I just don't think that it should be in the main weather discussion thread. I would hope that we can keep out all of the clutter and keep the tone as positive and inviting as we have in the past. I don't want to lose any red taggers or others who are looking to have a reasonable discussion about the weather. Burger: Since you asked, I'll put your last post here. I am not trying to call you out or rant and rave. My intent is not to start anything. I am a very calm and patient person who has the best of intentions. One cannot always infer that from what is being typed on a computer screen. I always enjoy you posting information as the models roll in. Can't wait for the first late night Euro run where you say BOOM!!! Screw you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I will say this, from trolling the other region boards we are far the most "strict" about what goes in the weather threads. I think when we are in storm mode we should get more strict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Screw you!!! Ha - Ha! I'll go back to my casual reading of a great weather forum now. Remember folks, "LESS IS MORE!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Some things never change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Hey everyone, it's been a while! I wanted to share with you that the State Climate Office of NC has started posting new blog entries on NC weather and climate news. I thought you guys might find their latest entry detailing how Siberian snowfall may impact the AO/NAO a good read. It's part of a series detailing different winter forecasting techniques that will end next Monday with their Winter 2012/13 outlook. October Siberian Snowfall May Shape NC Winters: http://nc-climate.nc...limateblog?id=5 Good reading, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 My annual "suppressed" rant..... 1. To put an end to forcibly; subdue. 2. To curtail or prohibit the activities of. 3. To keep from being revealed, published, or circulated. 4. To deliberately exclude (unacceptable desires or thoughts) from the mind. 5. To inhibit the expression of (an impulse, for example); check: suppress a smile. 6. To reduce the incidence or severity of (a hemorrhage or cough, for example); arrest. Matt Rogers used it today along with many other mets and thousands of weenies....I am not sure why a track along the gulf coast or though the south is suppressed. It is fairly common in the winter. To me the only good use of the word would be a strong polar jet squashing the STJ or a strong northern branch squashing a southern branch keeping anything from forming (a la cold and dry)....There is nothing suppressed about the storm the 00Z Euro... The only thing being suppressed right now are demonstrators in Egypt seeking a real republic free of MB bullying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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