griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Good one eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They doesn't know nothing different than no other WFO. I am guilty of playing the "MRX is too conservative" card, but truth be told, they are typically quite accurate. Many of us were honking for increased snow totals ahead of Sandy, yet MRX remained relatively conservative for totals in valley locations. Good for them; very few places below 2,500 ft saw more than a trace. Time to give it a rest. They were too conservative in the mountains before Sandy hit. They weren't expecting more than a foot and some places got three. They have missed snow events several times in the last four years for Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 They doesn't know nothing different than no other WFO. Nicely played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Finally, something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV Since November 1st...we have seen less than 1/2 inch of rain. Plenty of clouds, but not much rain. We have a chance for rain showers on Sunday (don't expect much), then a more impressive system on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Interesting that a couple of models have been flip-flopping with a chance for snow with this system. The latest runs are showing just RAIN. We need to keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....HAHA...Ha ha....ha.......sigh........ That felt good. LOL Bevo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Finally, something to track. Welcome back, good sir! We've missed you in these parts. I continue to love your site and how you modify it for pending weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wunderground added snow in the forecast for me...up to 3inches with 25mph winds. Weather.com now added snow. Maybe I can squeeze out a rain to sleet before ending...seems within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Wunderground added snow in the forecast for me...up to 3inches with 25mph winds. Weather.com now added snow. Maybe I can squeeze out a rain to sleet before ending...seems within reach. Lol since the forecast is automatically generated off model runs, that's not surprising. Cold rain coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Lol since the forecast is automatically generated off model runs, that's not surprising. Cold rain coming! Cold rain is probably an overstatement. We have 7 days for this to trend more dry east of the mountains...like previous systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 They doesn't know nothing different than no other WFO. I am guilty of playing the "MRX is too conservative" card, but truth be told, they are typically quite accurate. Many of us were honking for increased snow totals ahead of Sandy, yet MRX remained relatively conservative for totals in valley locations. Good for them; very few places below 2,500 ft saw more than a trace. Time to give it a rest. Betting on no snow usually pans out in the south. That still does not excuse MRX's level of conservatism. There have been more times than I can count that it's been pouring snow on the plateau and they refused to put those counties under a watch or warning. That is irresponsible, so no I won't give it a rest. Hell, I believe it was just last winter (possibly the one before) that I-40 froze over and shutdown one night with no prior warnings from them. A week out, it doesn't really matter what they put in their discussions. It's refreshing that they mention possibilities though. It's the 2 to 3 day time period before a storm that most people have a beef with in regards to MRX not acknowledging potential threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 only 42 more NCEP model cycles before the storm strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is the latest CFSv2 for around Christmas time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 They have missed snow events several times in the last four years for Knoxville. Of what significance? Betting on no snow usually pans out in the south. That still does not excuse MRX's level of conservatism. There have been more times than I can count that it's been pouring snow on the plateau and they refused to put those counties under a watch or warning. That is irresponsible, so no I won't give it a rest. Hell, I believe it was just last winter (possibly the one before) that I-40 froze over and shutdown one night with no prior warnings from them. Here's the thing: MRX does not forecast for a typical southern area. So, no, the adage of betting against snow in the south does not apply to this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Of what significance? Here's the thing: MRX does not forecast for a typical southern area. So, no, the adage of betting against snow in the south does not apply to this area. BR...just from the outside looking in that is pretty bold on their part don't you think. I do think they must have somebody new in there. However, even Rob Williams was honking a little this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Of what significance? Here's the thing: MRX does not forecast for a typical southern area. So, no, the adage of betting against snow in the south does not apply to this area. I agree with the bolded part and realize it's an incredibly difficult job to forecast for the plateau, valley, and mountains at the same time. That still does not give them a license to default to no warnings for the plateau when SNOW IS FALLING HARD at the moment. This happens every season. They are in the business of notifying the public of potentially dangerous weather situations. They do a great job with severe, snow not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Of what significance? Here's the thing: MRX does not forecast for a typical southern area. So, no, the adage of betting against snow in the south does not apply to this area. Large significance. Two events of 2-4" were missed completely by MRX in Knoxville. One other event was overshot by 6". There were several other instances of 1" or so which were also missed thanks to NW flow snow showers or a quick surprise. The models were all hinting at significant snow for the mountains before Sandy hit. MRX kept going conservative with 6-12" at the most. They also didn't accurately forecast when the snow would start, and it started earlier than they forecasted. If they just read the models verbatim, they would have been much closer, but they didn't. MRX isn't the only location around here that forecasts for low and high elevations. GSP does it too. So does Blacksburg. Yes, it's challenging, but they are often too conservative for higher elevations. Even GSP is more accurate for the spine of the Smokys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ya GSP usaully does a great job here in the smokeys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Cold rain is probably an overstatement. We have 7 days for this to trend more dry east of the mountains...like previous systems. Since when is cold rain an overstatement? hahaha who are you, Widre? I think cold rain is a fine statement and that's probably what the majority of people will see. If this trends to a lake cutter or something similar aka more west (east of the mountains, as you say), honestly, I'd be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since when is cold rain an overstatement? hahaha who are you, Widre? I think cold rain is a fine statement and that's probably what the majority of people will see. If this trends to a lake cutter or something similar aka more west (east of the mountains, as you say), honestly, I'd be surprised. Well, I will root for sheets of cold rain east of the mountains. I just won't be surprised if it doesn't happen...maybe the new pattern will deliver. It will have its first test coming up soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Since when is cold rain an overstatement? hahaha who are you, Widre? I think cold rain is a fine statement and that's probably what the majority of people will see. If this trends to a lake cutter or something similar aka more west (east of the mountains, as you say), honestly, I'd be surprised. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And there goes the storm...not a chance for the SE per the 0z GFS. Classic GooFuS. Now onto the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 And there goes the storm...not a chance for the SE per the 0z GFS. Classic GooFuS. Now onto the Euro Jon, It always gets lost in the time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Widremann wins again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Jon, It always gets lost in the time frame I actually thought it was a complete reversal viewing where the low was positioned around 140hrs but it's not too far off from previous runs other than being much warmer. This run would be an example of the cold rain I was mentioning earlier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If there's no cold air around, how on earth will it be cold enough to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I actually thought it was a complete reversal viewing where the low was positioned around 140hrs but it's not too far off from previous runs other than being much warmer. This run would be an example of the cold rain I was mentioning earlier lol I guess we'll all know for sure next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks like most taking it west of here. Snow west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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