Jon Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I see posters coming out of the woodwork given the recent model runs. You know it's looking good for the SE when... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 In the interest of full disclosure, I don't think it will snow here next week (not based on what I've seen thus far - but I reserve the right to change my mind). However, to trash winter at this point is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I see posters coming out of the woodwork given the recent model runs. You know it's looking good for the SE when... ...I am here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I posted an hour 192 snow map from the GFS. That's mid range Wait for the ensembles to roll in though. There's going to be a lot of specifics to nail down eventually. Some posters come out of the woodwork, some of them disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice. Who's down there? Packbacker, maybe? Is he the only one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Why am i staying up for model runs? LOL Euro sucks in terms of snow for all that was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Why am i staying up for model runs? LOL Euro sucks in terms of snow for all that was wondering. I posted in the other forum but it gave me hope especially given what Robert said. I bet the Euro falls to the GFS...and what's funny is a few days ago the GFS actually had an ULL trekking from TX to TN in the same time frame but everyone thought it was out to lunch. Now GFS has it and people are dismissing it because of the Euro. If you look at the Euro at 12z and 00z you'll see 00z pushed the bulk of the moisture south and it takes a more favorable approach for winter. Cold air still isn't there but my pure weenie guess is the models are battling with the pattern change. I like our chances! Then again I always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Burger, watching the 19th and onward with ya, and everyone else on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Burger, watching the 19th and onward with ya, and everyone else on here! Good to see you around....let's see if we can get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice. Who's down there? Packbacker, maybe? Is he the only one? I think we all have an idea as to who all might be down there. Let's be honest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I haven't used any heat since Sat. Can we have a total pattern reversal here in a week to 10 days. We shall see but here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice. Who's down there? Packbacker, maybe? Is he the only one? HAH! Not buying the winter storm next week, no true cold air, the PV has retreated. I still believe as I have always stated... - Dec is toast, not buying any pattern flip to a colder/wintery pattern for the SE this month - Dec-Feb will average warmer than normal - We will have a couple of chances this winter, I don't think we get skunked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I think we all have an idea as to who all might be down there. Let's be honest... I know....two days ago the whole board has jumped, now because of some fantasy GFS storm, everyone is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I know....two days ago the whole board has jumped, now because of some fantasy GFS storm, everyone is back. For the record - I never jumped. Mid January is the earliest I'll ever consider it... Is it possible that you might be missing the point? I don't think it's so much a fantasy storm that has people encouraged - it's the fact that the Pacific has shown weakness and blocking is landing some body shots. I do not believe it will snow here next week. But what many (including most METS) have been saying this whole time is that a step down change is coming. Some people who refuse to look beyond model runs or any possibility of the Pacific losing ground jumped wholeheartedly and made damn sure they let everyone know. Now that Ivan Drago has been cut, the people are starting to chant. It's not about a fantasy storm (which btw next Tuesday barely qualifies at this point) - it's the consensus that we probably won't be as bad off as last year - and now guidance is beginning to show it more consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I know....two days ago the whole board has jumped, now because of some fantasy GFS storm, everyone is back. I'm not necessarily buying it either, but how many fantasy storms could you put your eye on under 200 hrs last year? You could easily count them on one hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I don't like that run toss it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 ... just sayin... surface temps are pretty bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 HAH! Not buying the winter storm next week, no true cold air, the PV has retreated. I still believe as I have always stated... - Dec is toast, not buying any pattern flip to a colder/wintery pattern for the SE this month - Dec-Feb will average warmer than normal - We will have a couple of chances this winter, I don't think we get skunked Even I can stand behind your list here (except the possibility of a change this month - as evidenced by what we are seeing. That's obviously a change). But I distinctly remember you saying the winter would turn out this way. In your defense, you did relax that stance a week or so ago and went with the possibility that we could end up with normal seasonal temps over all. Also - be it known that I never named names of the divers - just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 ... just sayin... surface temps are pretty bad though. yeah, that's probably a better track than it's 0Z run. But either way the real problem is a lack of cold air. There is none preceding the storm, and thus any snow that occurs on the backside is mostly "dynamically" driven, which is not conducive to a widespread event in the SE. All the truly arctic air is bottled up in NW Canada. It's really difficult to get any significant snow in the SE without a source of true arctic air, IMO. But perhaps if the storm pans out it will help reshuffle the deck in the atmosphere eventually and drive in some wintry weather for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Temp wise...we all better be diving. No way December averages colder than normal. Would have to be a freak of nature. This will secure the warmest year in history for the United States. No pattern change/snow storm will average us out of the above normal temps for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Oh man, we are about to get into the DGEX model's wheel house for all of the snow weenies out there. It has the storm and is giving the SE some love. Look at your own risk. If I had every inch that the DGEX predicted for my backyard last year, I would need to invest in a sleigh and a snowmobile! I ended up with two inches of it. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/ I don't think that there will be any accumulating snow outside of the mountains for this storm, but I am excited about the pattern change which will be coming for the latter half of the month. I have a sneaky suspicion that there will be a snowstorm around Christmas somewhere in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 For the record - I never jumped. Mid January is the earliest I'll ever consider it... Is it possible that you might be missing the point? I don't think it's so much a fantasy storm that has people encouraged - it's the fact that the Pacific has shown weakness and blocking is landing some body shots. I do not believe it will snow here next week. But what many (including most METS) have been saying this whole time is that a step down change is coming. Some people who refuse to look beyond model runs or any possibility of the Pacific losing ground jumped wholeheartedly and made damn sure they let everyone know. Now that Ivan Drago has been cut, the people are starting to chant. It's not about a fantasy storm (which btw next Tuesday barely qualifies at this point) - it's the consensus that we probably won't be as bad off as last year - and now guidance is beginning to show it more consistently. Anytime you can combine Rocky IV with a weather post, that's some high quality right there. I must break you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Anytime you can combine Rocky IV with a weather post, that's some high quality right there. I must break you. I try. Although self editing for quality can be a real childbearing dog sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 yeah, that's probably a better track than it's 0Z run. But either way the real problem is a lack of cold air. There is none preceding the storm, and thus any snow that occurs on the backside is mostly "dynamically" driven, which is not conducive to a widespread event in the SE. All the truly arctic air is bottled up in NW Canada. It's really difficult to get any significant snow in the SE without a source of true arctic air, IMO. But perhaps if the storm pans out it will help reshuffle the deck in the atmosphere eventually and drive in some wintry weather for Christmas. I think you're right. There are some exceptions - recently as a matter of fact - in which the upper level dynamics of a given strong ULL can create it's own cold system and produce quality snow events (i.e. March '09). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Ahahaha good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 12Z @ 288 (12/23) is almost laughably ambitious. That is the true fun of LR speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I know....two days ago the whole board has jumped, now because of some fantasy GFS storm, everyone is back. I don't jump until late April and only then because it's not winter anymore...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I am in no way buying all the fun the GFS is spitting out for next week and now for Christmas weekend but dear Jesus thank you for at least sending us something to watch for a while! Sure beats last year already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I posted in the other forum but it gave me hope especially given what Robert said. I bet the Euro falls to the GFS...and what's funny is a few days ago the GFS actually had an ULL trekking from TX to TN in the same time frame but everyone thought it was out to lunch. Now GFS has it and people are dismissing it because of the Euro. If you look at the Euro at 12z and 00z you'll see 00z pushed the bulk of the moisture south and it takes a more favorable approach for winter. Cold air still isn't there but my pure weenie guess is the models are battling with the pattern change. I like our chances! Then again I always do. havent been following trends because of finals, but that gives me some hope in the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Why do things have to get interesting the week of finals?...meh''''''''' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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