griteater Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well everything's a problem right now...the AO is negative, but the placement of the pos/neg anomalies associated with the -AO are useless for getting cold air in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 As Allan pointed out to be over Twitter, 2010-2011 lacked +PNA....so we still don't know how much of a factor it will be if it never really gets there. I still think blocking is more of a deal breaker...I'd take a -NAO over a +PNA any day. I asked him if worrying about the +PNA so much vs the -NAO is a big deal, something along those lines. Some don't see a +PNA and cancel winter, I just don't see that completely. What we're currently seeing is a +PNA trying to evolve, whether it be neutral or + but too far away from the west coast, it's at least present in some form on the LR models. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx @_jwall Lack of +PNA does mean less chance of cross-polar flow and tap to cold air in NW Canada/Pole. But 2010-11 lacked +PNA. Still cold. Nice Jon - and that would be the way I tend to lean. If Winter were voted on by two major parties, I would fall under this convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Kind of shows you whatever will happen will happen. Kind of shows you whatever does not happen will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well everything's a problem right now...the AO is negative, but the placement of the pos/neg anomalies associated with the -AO are useless for getting cold air in here From what I remember I think some thought the -AO and NAO would be stronger than it is and overpower the pacific. It's just not strong enough so far. I just figure, if the NAO keeps negative, the PDO has got to give a bit next month. That's my hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 From what I remember I think some thought the -AO and NAO would be stronger than it is and overpower the pacific. It's just not strong enough so far. I just figure, if the NAO keeps negative, the PDO has got to give a bit next month. That's my hope anyway. Just to clarify, the AO has been negative recently, but moreso favoring the delivery of cold air in other areas (away from the lower 48)...but the NAO hasn't been negative. It's been around neutral the past 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 From what I remember I think some thought the -AO and NAO would be stronger than it is and overpower the pacific. It's just not strong enough so far. I just figure, if the NAO keeps negative, the PDO has got to give a bit next month. That's my hope anyway. I had (and still have) the same thoughts. At the end of the day, for me anyway, I would rather hang my hat on a solid AO/NAO relationship. Hopefully that will bear more fruit as Climo prepares to leave the dugout and get in the on deck circle. We're in the same boat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah, I like Bevo's analysis as well. Good stuff. The only ones to really lock in on how the Pac was gonna destroy our entire winter were Larry and Brick. Hats off to you guys. See everyone in 2013/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah, I like Bevo's analysis as well. Good stuff. The only ones to really lock in on how the Pac was gonna destroy our entire winter were Larry and Brick. Hats off to you guys. See everyone in 2013/2014. :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 in other news, I just found out my mother in-law is getting remarried and flying my wife and I out to the Bahamas in a few weeks for an all expenses paid vacation at the Atlantis! Maybe by the time I am back from that the freezer doors will be wide open....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Just to clarify, the AO has been negative recently, but moreso favoring the delivery of cold air in other areas (away from the lower 48)...but the NAO hasn't been negative. It's been around neutral the past 2 weeks. That's about to change. Models show it at around -2 in a week. We will see if that is enough to overcome the Pacific. In my opinion, that is why the models are having so much trouble right now. It's very hard to know where the tipping point will be. If I had to guess it will be around -1 to -1.5. That will be dependent on whether the PNA stays where it is or trends less negative. Make no mistake, the AO/NAO is the major player in our winter cold chances. If the index is negative enough, it will not matter what the Pacific is throwing at us. Some may argue with this, but I have seen too many examples of arctic cold in the east with a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's apparent what is happening here: The Pacific is making war with some sort of blocking beast - who by the way is obviously preoccupied and cannot fight back. Meanwhile, Bigfoots are corralling humans who are burning their hopes on a spit. I can only assume the cold has driven the 'Squatches out of the PNW. That's a pretty good LR forecast in my opinion. We'll just have to wait and see if the Bigfoots are a good thing or a bad thing. in other news, I just found out my mother in-law is getting remarried and flying my wife and I out to the Bahamas in a few weeks for an all expenses paid vacation at the Atlantis! Maybe by the time I am back from that the freezer doors will be wide open....... Awesome Enjoy paradise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 You know, as I look at that cave painting again, the question is begged... WTH is going on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 You know, as I look at that cave painting again, the question is begged... WTH is going on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I'm seriously thinking that the ancient peoples partied with Bigfoots. When did our relationship turn so sour and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 You know, as I look at that cave painting again, the question is begged... WTH is going on there? I think your "Bigfoots" look a lot like Cylon Centurions. This must be some cave painting from the planet Kobol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 i am loving these 70 degree days in DECEMBER. If it aint gonna snow, then let is be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think this weather has sealed my decision in making an exit out of the south as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think this weather has sealed my decision in making an exit out of the south as soon as possible. Ha!!! I came north for vacation and haven't experienced a COLD day! It has been warm everywhere, not just th SE. Hell! It was 63 in NYC when I was there Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think this weather has sealed my decision in making an exit out of the south as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I am going to Burlington VT from 12/20-1/3 so I should at least see a flake or two while there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I will be crossing Stevens pass driving from Seattle to Wenatchee on Tuesday. Maybe I can post some pix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I am going to Burlington VT from 12/20-1/3 so I should at least see a flake or two while there. I'll be in WV for the holidays so I'm hoping for the same while there...one of us should get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Robert says looking for cold in the east and south forget about it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Robert says looking for cold in the east and south forget about it!!! Where you guys been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 This weather sux.its hard to get in the holiday spirit when it feels like May outside.perhaps that pattern change will come in January... of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 This is me after I read this thread: Cheer up yall, the glass is not yet empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Lol..@ the cliff jump pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I think this weather has sealed my decision in making an exit out of the south as soon as possible. I am going to Burlington VT from 12/20-1/3 so I should at least see a flake or two while there. Now that sounds like an awesome way to celebrate the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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