iceman56 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 FYI, +7 at PHL through yesterday. Today adds another +8 or 9 (maybe more). This is arguably JB's worst call in a while given everything was set up for a rather mild 1st half of December when he made it. He acknowledged in today's post that his December forecast stunk (his words). I'm not sure anyone foresaw a +5 December though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 He acknowledged in today's post that his December forecast stunk (his words). I'm not sure anyone foresaw a +5 December though. That's a total false equivocation. No one would be busting on him if he went +2. It was obvious the day he issued that forecast that the first half of the month was going to torch. I'm so tired of the excuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 That's a total false equivocation. No one would be busting on him if he went +2. It was obvious the day he issued that forecast that the first half of the month was going to torch. I'm so tired of the excuses. He went -2 for December on a forecast made 11/22. Most people (including you as I recall) were also going slightly colder than normal for Dec. as well at that time. His BIG mistake was to not recognize that the cold was coming a couple weeks late and revise the forecast when it became obvious to everyone that a bust was unavoidable. If that's an excuse, well whatev... Anyhow, hopefully we evolve into a consistenlly cold pattern and the forecast challenges are limited to 'how much for philly and your torch is tarped this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 By about 12/1 it was pretty clear that the first 2-3 weeks was going to torch. He remained stubborn (as usual) to his first call and kept hacking away at the slider, just like Ryan Howard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Why all the abuse of Ryan Howard - all I know if when in the lineup he drives in runs among the best in baseball. That's all that matters to me from a cleanup hitter. I am already getting amped for Phillies Baseball - go Phils! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Why all the abuse of Ryan Howard - all I know if when in the lineup he drives in runs among the best in baseball. That's all that matters to me from a cleanup hitter. I am already getting amped for Phillies Baseball - go Phils! Wouldn't be so bad if he wasn't making 100mill and having declining #'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Why all the abuse of Ryan Howard - all I know if when in the lineup he drives in runs among the best in baseball. That's all that matters to me from a cleanup hitter. I am already getting amped for Phillies Baseball - go Phils! http://www.nytimes.c...itter.html?_r=0 http://www.baseball-.../archives/14104 both are from August 2011...note I'm not a full blown SABR geek but I do place value in valuable hitters...guys who can get on base, get hits, and drive in runs. If your OBP and SLG are pedestrian you should get beat up a bit. Howard was 16th (good, not great) in 2010. In 2011 he was 19th (again good, not great). For $25 million, you can do better...and Howard hasn't shown a willingness to improve his hitting since he was figured out. You can chuck sliders and offspeed at him and he'll strike out 3 of 5 times. He's a modern day Pedro Cerrano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 He went -2 for December on a forecast made 11/22. Most people (including you as I recall) were also going slightly colder than normal for Dec. as well at that time. His BIG mistake was to not recognize that the cold was coming a couple weeks late and revise the forecast when it became obvious to everyone that a bust was unavoidable. If that's an excuse, well whatev... Anyhow, hopefully we evolve into a consistenlly cold pattern and the forecast challenges are limited to 'how much for philly and your torch is tarped this year. I was totally on then cold bandwagon until about thanksgiving when it became obvious the MJO wave was going to die. This thread was started after he kept hammering his cold forecast well after it was an obvious bust. Listen, medium range forecasting is hard. But trying to make it sound like he just missed by a little or was near consensus is wrong and it comes off as defending a guy because of who he is, which I am really really tired of on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 +6.4 at PHL thru 12/26. but he did get the 50% snowcover right. delayed but not denied jb ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Through the 28'th phl has only had one below normal day this month (Dec 6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Through the 28'th phl has only had one below normal day this month (Dec 6). Looks like PHL will also pass December 31st with only a trace of snowfall for the season. Edit: Missed the 0.2 on 12/24, woops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks like PHL will also pass December 31st with only a trace of snowfall for the season. PHL likely to have one of the ten warmest Decembers on record also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 PHL likely to have one of the ten warmest Decembers on record also. Here's the list... 44.0 thru December 28th... also just noticed that they had 0.2" on 12/24, woops. 1 44.5 1923 2 44.2 1931 3 43.7 2001 4 43.5 1889 5 43.3 2011 6 42.7 1891, 2006 8 42.1 1990 9 42.0 1998 10 41.9 1994 Just for fun, here's snowfall for those winters after 12/31: 1924: 20.7 1932: 6.8 2002: 4.0 1890: 7.4 2012: 3.7 1892: 19.9 2007: 13.4 1991: 8.2 1999: 10.5 1995: 9.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 ^ that 0.2 looks to have been updated after the fact. I didn't see it on a PNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Here's the list... 44.0 thru December 28th... also just noticed that they had 0.2" on 12/24, woops. 1 44.5 1923 2 44.2 1931 3 43.7 2001 4 43.5 1889 5 43.3 2011 6 42.7 1891, 2006 8 42.1 1990 9 42.0 1998 10 41.9 1994 Just for fun, here's snowfall for those winters after 12/31: 1924: 20.7 1932: 6.8 2002: 4.0 1890: 7.4 2012: 3.7 1892: 19.9 2007: 13.4 1991: 8.2 1999: 10.5 1995: 9.8 Is that four consecutive winter months in the top 10 warmest for PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 It looks like we will finish with only the 12th warmest December in Chester County weather history (records since 1894) (thru yesterday +6.1) Here are the top 11 and departure from normal and total snowfall those winter seasons 1932 +12.7 (48.9") 1913 +9.8 (54.1") 1950 +9.8 (21.9") 1998 +9.0 (20.1") 1933 +8.8 (48.9") 2006 +8.6 (25.3") 1937 +8.4 (10.6") 1990 +7.6 (23.8") 1906 +7.4 (71.8") 1949 +6.8 (2.4") 1947 +6.6 (29.9") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The Weatherbell team has updated their Winter forecast originally issued in September. The main change is to go for a colder forecast in the East (including our area) with a departure of -2 degrees from normal for December (after a warm start but cold finish to push it negative) and also -2 vs normal for both January and February. Final tally: +5.6 at PHL If the forecast is that "good" over the next two months, then it will be a winter to remember... because it was so warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 PHL finished the month with only 1 day below normal - Dec 6. As mentioned in yesterday's AFD, current above normal streak is 25 days. Streak could get quite long if we can get through the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Final tally: +5.6 at PHL If the forecast is that "good" over the next two months, then it will be a winter to remember... because it was so warm! December to remember for how a bad a forecast it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 His January call is on life support as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 The man is on a roll! I predict delayed but not denied.... His January call is on life support as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The man is on a roll! I predict delayed but not denied....that won't save his January forecast...consider that many locales in the Northeastern US will be +3 to +5 going into mid month, the 2nd half of January would have to have historic cold for his -2 to -4 to verify. He looks to bust again, but maybe not as bad as he busted in December....guess it's the little victories that count.... - and for his 125% of normal snowfall-going to have to snow a heck of lot and fast for that to verify...PHL is at a trace right now on 1/9 with nothing in sight for 7-10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 that won't save his January forecast...consider that many locales in the Northeastern US will be +3 to +5 going into mid month, the 2nd half of January would have to have historic cold for his -2 to -4 to verify. He looks to bust again, but maybe not as bad as he busted in December....guess it's the little victories that count.... - and for his 125% of normal snowfall-going to have to snow a heck of lot and fast for that to verify...PHL is at a trace right now on 1/9 with nothing in sight for 7-10 days... Actually PHL season to date is at 1.1" so far which is still p*ss poor... ...THE PHILADELPHIA PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 8 2013... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2013 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 49 258 PM 69 1998 40 9 48 MINIMUM 27 611 AM 2 1970 26 1 34 AVERAGE 38 33 5 41 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.20 1923 0.09 -0.09 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.09 0.76 -0.67 0.03 SINCE DEC 1 4.51 4.32 0.19 4.40 SINCE JAN 1 0.09 0.76 -0.67 0.03 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 3.8 1988 0.2 -0.2 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.7 1.3 -0.6 0.2 SINCE DEC 1 1.1 4.7 -3.6 0.2 SINCE JUL 1 1.1 5.0 -3.9 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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