Rainshadow Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Through 12/5 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +46 (+9.2) JB Needs: -108 (-4.1/day here on out) Well if December 5th didn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Through 12/5 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +46 (+9.2) JB Needs: -108 (-4.1/day here on out) WOW One thing about JB, he sticks to his guns till the very end before throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Although that is not a good thing.....it his one of his worst traits (besides the inflated southern end of this snow forecasts) He holds on to his ideas for much too long. He seems to be a very stubborn man. Although it appears clear he will not hit his forecast he will not change anytime soon WOW One thing about JB, he sticks to his guns till the very end before throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well if December 5th didn't help. Neither will December 8th or 10th. He's probably going to need -5 or greater coming out of the first third of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The question is how long will it take for JB to modify his forecast? Or does he just let it ride......reading his posts today I think the latter. I predict he will mention he had the pattern but was too quick with the cold. A classic Jbism of delayed but not denied! My favorite has to be, "I nailed it at 500mb..." I'm convinced, after following him for 10 or 12 years, (save last year and this year), he has one goal in forecasting. To never...ever...ever...have it said of him that he missed the cold shot the snowstorm or the hurricane. Taking it even further, that enough is left on the table with every extreme event, that he can twist and form it into the argument that he called it first. I seriously believe he will gladly lose credibility in every other aspect of forecasting to achieve this illusion /\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Here in NW Chesco after today's 39.4 high and 27.5 low we stand at +7.4 degrees above normal for the first 7 days of December. Not looking good for JBs -2.0 December.....would need to average -2.2 below normal each day to get back to normal for the month here in Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Through 12/7 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +43 (+6.1) JB Needs: -105 (-4.4/day here on out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Through 12/8 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +52 (+6.5) JB Needs: -114 (-4.95/day here on out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 9, 2012 Author Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sounds like someone is hearing some "detractors"...not that there is any on this site! His latest thoughts for "he who shall not be named" "This is well within the realm of possibility and while I cant say for sure we have all this before Christmas, I sure like the pattern that is setitng up. And this model run is no different right now from the ones that dont show because it will change a bunch of times. I am posting this late because I want you to know I see everything you are talking about. Lets take that last storm. It did not come back to the original idea in the east, but it darn well did more than a few showers and 50.. Much of the tri state had a second accuumlating snow and there was a 150 mile wide band of snow with a 5 inch max with it. Again I need to remind some of my detractors that this was November. And its December and warm now. But would you rather it be cold now with the MJO heading into phases 5 and 6 ( I trust you are reading the post on this) or where you are with 1 lurking? Now I cant display the monthly Euros for you, but guess what I will have to do for Jan and Feb if its right. EXPAND THE SNOW FURTHER NORTH cause its very wet in the midwest lakes and east and with normal to below normal temps, that has to mean we will have our chances. Here is another consideration, That 78-79 winter did not get started really till Christmas even and then just deepened until mid Feb, starting in the west and plains first then centering in the midwest in Feb. I am researching that now because the neg pna, ao, nao winter is rare. The Ecmwf has alot of blocking over the top on it, so I am very comfortable with the overall idea we have.. I am not happy that this cold shot now , and this is not chopped liver, temps could reach freezing all the way to the lower rio grande valley, is going to have some warming behind it more than I thought. But both the GFS and its ensembles are more bullish this evening ( I showed you the model above) and while some may be inclined to think it should be more bull---- than bullish, I think in an exciting pattern we should look at the total picture. The blizzard is putting the snow down in the northern plains, this cold shot is probably a warm up for bigger things in the not so distant future, But the reason for the ideas here are shown for all to see, and are not wishcasting. There is a bigger risk for me than my detractors you know. What a fool I am to post all this, show you things and then be wrong , when someone can see in 5 minutes what I have been setting up much longer is garbage" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Latest from JB so look away if he upsets you...only joking! "This pattern is going coast to coast and I think we have wild ride through the holidays for the entire nation. The latest CFSV2 snow chart for around Christmas is not shy about what its asking for much of the nation. This pattern has gobs of potential for all the US" "For the nation as a whole, it is unlikely that you or I will ever see this kind of set up around the time of the holidays again, where almost everyone north of I 20 has a shot, and the center from west to east is along I 70. I will be darn if being a few days late ( if its snowing already in the northeast next week at this time, are you really going to be upset) is going to get me to back away. I may be wrong, but quite literally that is not what the modeling is saying at all. to quote Adam Sandler ( BTW happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish friends...consider these maps a snowy shalom) "Not too shabby." You think if this happened climate change should be in the presidents inauguration speach...Wow what an ensemble run, strong negative over Tennessee valley Christmas Day, block over the top. Plenty of precip over the northeast ( west coast lets up by then) -4c at 5k Boston to Memphis You know, theres something about Christmas time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 well if it's the same QBO analogs DT threw out there then JB could be right, however christmas week still too early for the drastic pattern shift more like new years and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Through 12/10 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +72 (+7.2) JB Needs: -136 (-6.48/day here on out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Through 12/10 Forecast Temperature Departure (Cumulative): -62 (-2.0) Temperature Departure Cumulative: +72 (+7.2) JB Needs: -136 (-6.48/day here on out) any guess what his number will be by 12/31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 any guess what his number will be by 12/31? I'll guess -200... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'll guess -200... If the 18Z GFS is right it will not be that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If the 18Z GFS is right it will not be that bad. Assuming today tacks on another ten degrees (we're +13 in Philly as of 7 PM and I'm guessing our daily low is around 40 or 41) we're looking at averaging 2.7 per day above from now to month's end to get a cumulative of +200 over a -2 forecast...that's not entirely unreasonable given an inland track on that coastal would torch us for one to two days. (the inland track is not necessarily my forecast...but if it does, we torch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Assuming today tacks on another ten degrees (we're +13 in Philly as of 7 PM and I'm guessing our daily low is around 40 or 41) we're looking at averaging 2.7 per day above from now to month's end to get a cumulative of +200 over a -2 forecast...that's not entirely unreasonable given an inland track on that coastal would torch us for one to two days. (the inland track is not necessarily my forecast...but if it does, we torch) I agree, but was saying if the 18Z GFS was right because it obviously does not show a cutter. Either way his forecast will bust big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 He has slowly begun to acknowledge his pending bust.....but has not changed his forecast - more focused on the next 2 storms see below tweet this AM "ECMWF multi storm amounts next week reach 1 to 2 feet for much of the area from the Catskills to Maine....Major noreaster next week could cause problems in sandy ravaged beaches as well as major interior snow...rain turning to snow to the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 We're +7 through yesterday at PHL. JB would need -8.1 from here on out to make -2. Just to get to average, he would need -4.7. Neither are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 +6.3 through yesterday. JB is now up to a -9.8 for the second half of the month to get a -2 and -5.9 to get average. Has he admitted defeat yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 +6.3 through yesterday. JB is now up to a -9.8 for the second half of the month to get a -2 and -5.9 to get average. Has he admitted defeat yet? JB never admits defeat. He just explains it away, "Well I got the upper levels were right, but the surface didn't react the way it should have." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 JB never admits defeat. He just explains it away, "Well I got the upper levels were right, but the surface didn't react the way it should have." Then he shifts back to global warming and also makes a rip comment about the point and clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm telling u he is already starting down the delayed but not denied path......to Ray's point he will not admit bust....just a little too quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Then he shifts back to global warming and also makes a rip comment about the point and clicks. He was blasting the way the CLI reports measure temperature to average on twitter yesterday (rounding up instead of just taking the average pure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 He was blasting the way the CLI reports measure temperature to average on twitter yesterday (rounding up instead of just taking the average pure). Is there anything he does not complain about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Is there anything he does not complain about? The Korean and Japanese models and the Brazilian meteogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Is there anything he does not complain about? Not if it involves the NWS in any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Ray - see his latest post and map for these week's storm along with his early call for the Christmas week storm in the medium range thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 He was blasting the way the CLI reports measure temperature to average on twitter yesterday (rounding up instead of just taking the average pure). Except he is wrong. The monthly average temperature computation is the average of the daily highs plus the average of daily lows divided by two, not the average of the daily averages. The monthly average temperature is 46.0F, but if you average the daily averages, it would compute to 46.2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Except he is wrong. The monthly average temperature computation is the average of the daily highs plus the average of daily lows divided by two, not the average of the daily averages. The monthly average temperature is 46.0F, but if you average the daily averages, it would compute to 46.2F. Couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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