ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Weatherbell team has updated their Winter forecast originally issued in September. The main change is to go for a colder forecast in the East (including our area) with a departure of -2 degrees from normal for December (after a warm start but cold finish to push it negative) and also -2 vs normal for both January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Weatherbell team has updated their Winter forecast originally issued in September. The main change is to go for a colder forecast in the East (including our area) with a departure of -2 degrees from normal for December (after a warm start but cold finish to push it negative) and also -2 vs normal for both January and February. thanks paul. precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 thanks paul. precip? Above normal http://epawablogs.com/joe-bastardis-updated-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 No change in precip....active southern stream but not as good as 09-10 but still has 125% of normal snowfall from the Southeast up through the Northeast. Hope all is well! Paul thanks paul. precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Since I am the owner of Eastern PA Weather Authority, LLC and we are affiliated with WeatherBELL Analytics, I am authorized to reproduce his outlooks on the EPAWA website, so here is the direct link to read it if you are so inclined, for free: http://epawablogs.com/joe-bastardis-updated-winter-forecast/ Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Great site Bobby! All the best Since I am the owner of Eastern PA Weather Authority, LLC and we are affiliated with WeatherBELL Analytics, I am authorized to reproduce his outlooks on the EPAWA website, so here is the direct link to read it if you are so inclined, for free: http://epawablogs.com/joe-bastardis-updated-winter-forecast/ Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Great site Bobby! All the best Thank you... still a work in progress, but getting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Thanks for the information. I think we pretty much have a consensus that this will be a cold and snowy winter in this area. Accuweather, JB, Judah Cohen and Hurricane Schwartz all seem to agree. Is anyone out there predicting a warmer than normal winter at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Thanks for the information. I think we pretty much have a consensus that this will be a cold and snowy winter in this area. Accuweather, JB, Judah Cohen and Hurricane Schwartz all seem to agree. Is anyone out there predicting a warmer than normal winter at this point? Well December may not be all that pretty there, unless the second half really shapes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Thanks for the information. I think we pretty much have a consensus that this will be a cold and snowy winter in this area. Accuweather, JB, Judah Cohen and Hurricane Schwartz all seem to agree. Is anyone out there predicting a warmer than normal winter at this point? Schwartz is technically calling for an above average winter on temps. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-180199191.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Weatherbell team has updated their Winter forecast originally issued in September. The main change is to go for a colder forecast in the East (including our area) with a departure of -2 degrees from normal for December (after a warm start but cold finish to push it negative) and also -2 vs normal for both January and February. Given the first five days will average close to +6 he's going to need almost -3.5 from December 6 through 31 to pull this off. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Well December may not be all that pretty there, unless the second half really shapes up. Given the first five days will average close to +6 he's going to need almost -3.5 from December 6 through 31 to pull this off. Good luck with that. We're going to see a Top 5 first 10 days and they went colder for the month? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We're going to see a Top 5 first 10 days and they went colder for the month? Wow. Joe had a great call for the month of November. There is going to have to be a pretty impressive reversal in the second half of the month. The NAEFS has been golden for weekly temps here and after a mild start for week one, it has week two teetering on the edge between near normal and above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Joe had a great call for the month of November. Broken clocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Sad to see this sort of negative posts about professionals from a professional. Thanks to all the professional Mets including JB who make this site such a great resource Broken clocks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Given the first five days will average close to +6 he's going to need almost -3.5 from December 6 through 31 to pull this off. Good luck with that. Despite the affiliation, I would have to agree with you. Nothing jumps out at me as being THAT impressively cold after mid month. Euro weeklies certainly wouldn't support such a thing, but also haven't been the best after week 2 with regard to consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Sad to see this sort of negative posts about professionals from a professional. Thanks to all the professional Mets including JB who make this site such a great resource RE The first part: Not really, no. Just reinforcing the fact that most mets consider a majority of JB's thoughts to be ill-founded and sometimes downright fantastical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Glad to see you have that detailed polling data handy....most mets.....nice RE The first part: Not really, no. Just reinforcing the fact that most mets consider a majority of JB's thoughts to be ill-founded and sometimes downright fantastical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 RE The first part: Not really, no. Just reinforcing the fact that most mets consider a majority of JB's thoughts to be ill-founded and sometimes downright fantastical. I would agree, JB while once was good at what he does, he is no longer of value to me, I'm tired of the constant fantasy scenarios that he always plays up. Going for the extremes are like Ellinwood says. Years ago I used to subscribe him, but once he started swinging for the Grand Slams almost every time it got old. Just my 2 cents. By the way, this board has so much more value, I really see no reason while an individual would even subscribe to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Glad to see you have that detailed polling data handy....most mets.....nice While I admit my data is currently more based on personal experience with my conversations with other mets, let's go to the polls: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 An 85% margin? Whew!!! I can only see this ending 1 way... Bad. Everytime he who shall not be named is brought up, it gets ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Bri He is unpopular on this site that is for sure (I would be shocked if he even gets 10% - but he has a sizable number of folks who find his service worth paying for across the country. That said as I have said many times before I have no great personal allegiance to him or any weather service - I subscribe to WB, Accuweather and NJ PA weather - so I simply like multiple viewpoints. No MET is perfect and if you realize JBs slant on highlighting possibilities and pattern recognition - he can be a valuable addition to an arsenal of information. One thing for sure - he does provoke a response - which me thinks he does not mind one bit.... An 85% margin? Whew!!! I can only see this ending 1 way... Bad. Everytime he who shall not be named is brought up, it gets ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I can only see this ending 1 way... Bad. Everytime he who shall not be named is brought up, it gets ugly.... Yup. I think the guy just lets his emotions get in the way of his intelligence (which he has plenty of) regarding the weather. I think others that have worked alongside him would say something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yup. I think the guy just lets his emotions get in the way of his intelligence (which he has plenty of) regarding the weather. I think others that have worked alongside him would say something similar. I have heard some "fun" stories from former accuwx peeps. JB throwing fits, stomping around the office and what-not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Bri He is unpopular on this site that is for sure (I would be shocked if he even gets 10% - but he has a sizable number of folks who find his service worth paying for across the country. That said as I have said many times before I have no great personal allegiance to him or any weather service - I subscribe to WB, Accuweather and NJ PA weather - so I simply like multiple viewpoints. No MET is perfect and if you realize JBs slant on highlighting possibilities and pattern recognition - he can be a valuable addition to an arsenal of information. One thing for sure - he does provoke a response - which me thinks he does not mind one bit.... You can get better and less biased weather opinions simply from listening to adam, the mount holly crew, and free sites that are out there. JB is historically biased towards 'big' events and that's what gets him burned. He does well when things are anomalously cold, anomalously stormy, or blocky. He was awful last winter and was awful this summer IIRC. He is passionate about weather but his forecasts aren't any better than what you see on TV or for free on this site. What he says in his analysis on the paid part of WB isn't any better than something that Adam, HM, or anyone here contributes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 I agree....hence why I am here on this great site......we have the best NWS local office and great professional MET contributors.....but if you even want more perspectives - like me and don't mind spending the $ - why not?? You can get better and less biased weather opinions simply from listening to adam, the mount holly crew, and free sites that are out there. JB is historically biased towards 'big' events and that's what gets him burned. He does well when things are anomalously cold, anomalously stormy, or blocky. He was awful last winter and was awful this summer IIRC. He is passionate about weather but his forecasts aren't any better than what you see on TV or for free on this site. What he says in his analysis on the paid part of WB isn't any better than something that Adam, HM, or anyone here contributes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rebec1991 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Weatherbell team has updated their Winter forecast originally issued in September. The main change is to go for a colder forecast in the East (including our area) with a departure of -2 degrees from normal for December (after a warm start but cold finish to push it negative) and also -2 vs normal for both January and February. You either are Bastardi. Or a close friend promoting weather bell products. ...post history says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You either are Bastardi. Or a close friend promoting weather bell products. ...post history says it all. He's not Bastardi but he's been one of his staunchest supporters going back years. No harm in that...that's his choice and his dime to spend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 He's not Bastardi but he's been one of his staunchest supporters going back years. No harm in that...that's his choice and his dime to spend. Yeah, agree. Paul likes him. Nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You either are Bastardi. Or a close friend promoting weather bell products. ...post history says it all. Believe it or not there are a ton of people who enjoy JB's thoughts and find him to be a respectable met. As Paul said, most on here don't like him. Everyone has their weaknesses, and I'd wager to say most mets have some sort of bias in their forecasts, but demonstrate it in a much more subtle way. JB has the outspoken, entertainment value that attracts many of his customers. No doubt he tends to forecast extremes, but his ability to recognize patterns from far in advance are impressive, and better than the majority of mets I've seen. I've noticed he doesn't do well w/ short term storm forecasting as he tends to "over snow" but his specialty is medium/long range patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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