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December 2012 Pattern Analysis


HailMan06

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This mornings 0z Euro doesnt offer many encouraging signs , the Ridge in the pacific continues to back towards Hawaii and that is not conducive to ANY kind of trof in the east .

In fact the Dec 20th date for a turn is really dependent on how the Pac responds in the next 5 days . On the day 10 Euro you can see the beginnings of another ridge start its development over Cuba to take the place of the one that gets temporarily displaced for a day or 2 next week .

and that is clearly in response to the PAC ridge pulling the pattern with it .

If you want great skiing head west .With a trof locked off like this a nice glacier should develop there with a NEG PNA

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Here is the 12z Nam for next week. It's making things really interesting. SREF is also more north and west.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

The period from the 11th-13th when that trof sets up right on the East Coast behind the first storm has been one I've been watching for awhile. The setup is great if some sort of wave can develop and move NE even though the temps would be marginal, especially if the wave develops late.

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The period from the 11th-13th when that trof sets up right on the East Coast behind the first storm has been one I've been watching for awhile. The setup is great if some sort of wave can develop and move NE even though the temps would be marginal, especially if the wave develops late.

30 year Anniversary of the infamous "Snowplow" snowstorm...measured near 5.5" on western Long Island...over a foot on Nantucket...snowplow came out to clear field at Foxboro allowing Patriots kicker boot to home winning field goal vs Dolphins. Shula fumed.

This came on the heels of perhaps the warmest autumn in recent times...and quickly reverted to that after the storm.

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30 year Anniversary of the infamous "Snowplow" snowstorm...measured near 5.5" on western Long Island...over a foot on Nantucket...snowplow came out to clear field at Foxboro allowing Patriots kicker boot to home winning field goal vs Dolphins. Shula fumed.

This came on the heels of perhaps the warmest autumn in recent times...and quickly reverted to that after the storm.

You never know...the 12/11 -12/12 period has been historically good for snow (think 1960 storm)...just as the Feb 11-12 is a strangely favorable period historically....

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We're starting to see the high latitude blocking over Greenland and Central Canada move up in time now on the GEFS. We're inside/near 200 hours with this blocking which has been becoming more apparent on every model cycle since yesterday. So while it's prudent not to put too much stock into individual ensemble runs, seeing this is definitely encouraging. It would also be sufficient to take the Dec 18-20 threat that myself and a few others have talked about and force it south/to redevelop underneath our latitude.

f216.gif

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SREF mean has our whole area between .10 and .25 precip between 72 and 84 hrs.

Image? (of what I assume is the 15z SREF)

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We're starting to see the high latitude blocking over Greenland and Central Canada move up in time now on the GEFS. We're inside/near 200 hours with this blocking which has been becoming more apparent on every model cycle since yesterday. So while it's prudent not to put too much stock into individual ensemble runs, seeing this is definitely encouraging. It would also be sufficient to take the Dec 18-20 threat that myself and a few others have talked about and force it south/to redevelop underneath our latitude.

f216.gif

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Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM. It's even further northwest than the 12z NAM for the 12/11-12/12 system and brings precipitation into NYC.

I thought the 12z looked better at 500mb than 18z, even though the surface looked a little further NW than 12z. Despite the close call at the surface, I didn't like the trends aloft.

From what has been posted over the years, the verification of the 18z runs is not significantly worse than the other runs. And I wouldn't totally discount the latter part of the NAM run. It's not entirely implausible. Even if you discount the 84hr chart, there are already significant differences in the height fields between the NAM and GFS by 60 hours.

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There is definitely a storm signal around 10 days out. The better performing Euro ensembles

maintain enough of a ridge just off the East Coast to allow the low to cut very close to our

area with warm air spoiling the party.

Euro

GFS

Lack of any sort of a 50/50 is going to be a problem for two reasons.

1) When a 50/50 is present, we are able to get cold highs at the surface over parts of NNE and southern canada, helping to reinforce the cold on the coast. That will be much harder to do without a 50/50

2) Storm track, a low over the Newfoundland area tends to give energy a chance to amplify and the trough to go negative by creating a bit of pseudo ridge downstream from the storm. With such a positively tilted trough its hard to get a storm that develops or is long lasting.

While the blocking is great over the DS region, the extension of above normal heights into SE canada is not a great signal form a storm

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