PB GFI Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 This mornings 0z Euro doesnt offer many encouraging signs , the Ridge in the pacific continues to back towards Hawaii and that is not conducive to ANY kind of trof in the east . In fact the Dec 20th date for a turn is really dependent on how the Pac responds in the next 5 days . On the day 10 Euro you can see the beginnings of another ridge start its development over Cuba to take the place of the one that gets temporarily displaced for a day or 2 next week . and that is clearly in response to the PAC ridge pulling the pattern with it . If you want great skiing head west .With a trof locked off like this a nice glacier should develop there with a NEG PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Here is the 12z Nam for next week. It's making things really interesting. SREF is also more north and west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F09%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F09%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Here is the 12z Nam for next week. It's making things really interesting. SREF is also more north and west. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The period from the 11th-13th when that trof sets up right on the East Coast behind the first storm has been one I've been watching for awhile. The setup is great if some sort of wave can develop and move NE even though the temps would be marginal, especially if the wave develops late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The period from the 11th-13th when that trof sets up right on the East Coast behind the first storm has been one I've been watching for awhile. The setup is great if some sort of wave can develop and move NE even though the temps would be marginal, especially if the wave develops late. 30 year Anniversary of the infamous "Snowplow" snowstorm...measured near 5.5" on western Long Island...over a foot on Nantucket...snowplow came out to clear field at Foxboro allowing Patriots kicker boot to home winning field goal vs Dolphins. Shula fumed. This came on the heels of perhaps the warmest autumn in recent times...and quickly reverted to that after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 30 year Anniversary of the infamous "Snowplow" snowstorm...measured near 5.5" on western Long Island...over a foot on Nantucket...snowplow came out to clear field at Foxboro allowing Patriots kicker boot to home winning field goal vs Dolphins. Shula fumed. This came on the heels of perhaps the warmest autumn in recent times...and quickly reverted to that after the storm. You never know...the 12/11 -12/12 period has been historically good for snow (think 1960 storm)...just as the Feb 11-12 is a strangely favorable period historically.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The baroclinic zone is extremely positively tilted on the GFS for the Dec 12-13 wave. I'd be shocked if that actually resulted in anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 12z gfs ensemble mean about as wet as the NAM in this area for the 12/11 -12/12 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sleeting here in Vernon...it will be short lived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sleeting here in Vernon...it will be short lived Whats your temp/dewpt? 41/35 here 19 miles to your north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Sleeting here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 We're starting to see the high latitude blocking over Greenland and Central Canada move up in time now on the GEFS. We're inside/near 200 hours with this blocking which has been becoming more apparent on every model cycle since yesterday. So while it's prudent not to put too much stock into individual ensemble runs, seeing this is definitely encouraging. It would also be sufficient to take the Dec 18-20 threat that myself and a few others have talked about and force it south/to redevelop underneath our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Latest SREF's show about 10-15% chance of accumulating snow from C NJ south and east the NJ coast. It's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 SREF mean has our whole area between .10 and .25 precip between 72 and 84 hrs. From Storm-Vista site. Can't attach image. ewall looks completely different though, with nothing, even though some individual ensemble members hit us pretty good, so I have no idea what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 SREF mean has our whole area between .10 and .25 precip between 72 and 84 hrs. Image? (of what I assume is the 15z SREF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 We're starting to see the high latitude blocking over Greenland and Central Canada move up in time now on the GEFS. We're inside/near 200 hours with this blocking which has been becoming more apparent on every model cycle since yesterday. So while it's prudent not to put too much stock into individual ensemble runs, seeing this is definitely encouraging. It would also be sufficient to take the Dec 18-20 threat that myself and a few others have talked about and force it south/to redevelop underneath our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Great point. These love to correct in the face of a block and belly under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 European ensembles in good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I think that storm Dec 18-20th is first legit shot of snow...EURO shows an inland runner, but we have blocking and if we could get a confluence and a semi 50/50 low it could trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM. It's even further northwest than the 12z NAM for the 12/11-12/12 system and brings precipitation into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM. It's even further northwest than the 12z NAM for the 12/11-12/12 system and brings precipitation into NYC. NAM + 72 hours out + 18Z run = Complete the equation. The answer should start with a G and end with an e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 NAM + 72 hours out + 18Z run = Complete the equation. The answer should start with a G and end with an e I agree that the NAM run at 72 hours out should be taken with extreme skepticism. I disagree that because it's the 18z run makes it wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I agree that the NAM run at 72 hours out should be taken with extreme skepticism. I disagree that because it's the 18z run makes it wrong though. 18Z NAM is known for overamped/juiced solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 18Z NAM is known for overamped/juiced solutions. Why? And if its known, why isnt it fixed? What data only gets ingested (or negated) for the 18z run that causes that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Why? And if its known, why isnt it fixed? What data only gets ingested (or negated) for the 18z run that causes that? Its more of a lack of data than something extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Its more of a lack of data than something extra. Is 6z the opposite because those runs often seem suppressed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Its more of a lack of data than something extra. To be fair, though, it has trended the right way in the NAM. I would lean against much at this point, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Setup in place around the 18-20th looks good to me. Euro is extremely amplified, while the GFS is not. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Not sure what to make of the 18z NAM. It's even further northwest than the 12z NAM for the 12/11-12/12 system and brings precipitation into NYC. I thought the 12z looked better at 500mb than 18z, even though the surface looked a little further NW than 12z. Despite the close call at the surface, I didn't like the trends aloft. From what has been posted over the years, the verification of the 18z runs is not significantly worse than the other runs. And I wouldn't totally discount the latter part of the NAM run. It's not entirely implausible. Even if you discount the 84hr chart, there are already significant differences in the height fields between the NAM and GFS by 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There is definitely a storm signal around 10 days out. The better performing Euro ensembles maintain enough of a ridge just off the East Coast to allow the low to cut very close to our area with warm air spoiling the party. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 There is definitely a storm signal around 10 days out. The better performing Euro ensembles maintain enough of a ridge just off the East Coast to allow the low to cut very close to our area with warm air spoiling the party. Euro GFS Lack of any sort of a 50/50 is going to be a problem for two reasons. 1) When a 50/50 is present, we are able to get cold highs at the surface over parts of NNE and southern canada, helping to reinforce the cold on the coast. That will be much harder to do without a 50/50 2) Storm track, a low over the Newfoundland area tends to give energy a chance to amplify and the trough to go negative by creating a bit of pseudo ridge downstream from the storm. With such a positively tilted trough its hard to get a storm that develops or is long lasting. While the blocking is great over the DS region, the extension of above normal heights into SE canada is not a great signal form a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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