earthlight Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 http://www.facebook....&type=1 Nothing like you calling for a repeat of one of the worst winters on record based on an overnight flip in model runs. Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 http://www.facebook....&type=1 lol...one model run and people flip out, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Nothing like you calling for a repeat of one of the worst winters on record based on an overnight flip in model runs. Some things never change. Yeah, agreed. The ECMWF flip flopped again, and now has a solid -NAO developing. The means are a better tool for forecasting in the longer range than the operational models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro has a miller b look to it at 240 hours. It's warm in the east but it's over 200 hours out. This run develops a nice -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Nice look here. Things are getting pushed to climo on today's runs, which is just fine. I'd venture a wild guess that the next few panels might feature a nice winter storm for the area based on this snapshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Should finish plus 3 for the month thay west coast trough stuck in stupid. Take ur nao and ao and keep it. Its Not the driver in ths pattern. I dont knw what some of u dont.see. its not one run. Its the same run.for 2 weeks and the changes progged dont help us. If u live in manitoba then rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Uh? Based on what? The Dec 16-20 period still looks interesting. ant. I am focusing the upstream not whats downstream. A gradient pattern gointo develop but we prob south of the barroclinic zone. I thnk ths is great for new england. First . Se ridges are ur friend to an extent. They can also track ur energy too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The 0z euro run had a + NAO after the 16th. The 12z run now has a negative NAO after the 16th. Goes to show you that the Euro isnt stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Nice look here. Things are getting pushed to climo on today's runs, which is just fine. I'd venture a wild guess that the next few panels might feature a nice winter storm for the area based on this snapshot. Mega West-Based -NAO Block. Although that's present, there's the Massive -PNA signature which can get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 ant. I am focusing the upstream not whats downstream. A gradient pattern gointo develop but we prob south of the barroclinic zone. I thnk ths is great for new england. First . Se ridges are ur friend to an extent. They can also track ur energy too far north I agree with you about the a gradient pattern. I think it's really possible with a -NAO,-AO and -PNA. NYC does alright with these kinds of patterns. SNE north does the best though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 LOL. December is clearly done, there are minimal changes in the LR but even with the improving NAO Canada becomes flooded with warm air.New years at the earliest for any change IMO. Huh? Realizing you we're discussing the op but ensembles are far more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I agree with you about the a gradient pattern. I think it's really possible with a -NAO,-AO and -PNA. NYC does alright with these kinds of patterns. SNE north does the best though. Dont thnk its a fail. Just thnk its later than the 20 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Mega West-Based -NAO Block. Although that's present, there's the Massive -PNA signature which can get in the way. We'll be dealing with the -PNA issue for some time to come....we get the goods delivered via the Baffin/Greenland blocking as has been discussed. If that goes away, it's going to be very disappointing..... Hope is Alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 0z Euro had a + NAO. Now the 12z Euro has a -NAO. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 0z Euro had a + NAO. Now the 12z Euro has a -NAO. http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Pacific goes to crap though as the Aleutian ridge flattens out and floods Canada with mild air. A strong PV with -40C 850s retreats to Siberia and there goes our cold air source. Sure heights are high over Greenland but you're battling a strong +EPO/-PNA/-PDO pattern which is unfavorable. The ensembles looked better than the Euro OP, which was horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Pacific goes to crap though as the Aleutian ridge flattens out and floods Canada with mild air. A strong PV with -40C 850s retreats to Siberia and there goes our cold air source. Sure heights are high over Greenland but you're battling a strong +EPO/-PNA/-PDO pattern which is unfavorable. The ensembles looked better than the Euro OP, which was horrific. What? This is a good pattern for dumping cold air into the Western CONUS and developing a gradient over the Central US. The high latitude blocking building in over Greenland and Northeast Canada assures that the baroclinic zone will be forced farther south. The ensembles also have a strong signal for a storm system at this time with a noticeable buckle in the mid level flow over the MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 What? This is a good pattern for dumping cold air into the Western CONUS and developing a gradient over the Central US. The high latitude blocking building in over Greenland and Northeast Canada assures that the baroclinic zone will be forced farther south. The ensembles also have a strong signal for a storm system at this time with a noticeable buckle in the mid level flow over the MS Valley. I was talking about the OP because that's what Ant was mentioning. The ensembles looked better, although still not great, than the OP, as I mentioned. I still don't like the area of low heights over AK and into the Pacific Northwest as that's going to cause a long PAC jet to extend into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I was talking about the OP because that's what Ant was mentioning. The ensembles looked better, although still not great, than the OP, as I mentioned. I still don't like the area of low heights over AK and into the Pacific Northwest as that's going to cause a long PAC jet to extend into the CONUS. Where do you see this on his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Where do you see this on his map? The height lines are very closely packed together over the East Pacific entering the CONUS and Southern Canada, so you do have a strong PAC jet. There isn't any high pressure slowing down the Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The height lines are very closely packed together over the East Pacific entering the CONUS and Southern Canada, so you do have a strong PAC jet. There isn't any high pressure slowing down the Pacific flow. Fair enough. I see a nice supply of arctic air and some Atlantic blocking, and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Fair enough. I see a nice supply of arctic air and some Atlantic blocking, and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'm pretty sure what he sees is visions of weenies dancing in his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Fair enough. I see a nice supply of arctic air and some Atlantic blocking, and heavy snow. Let's wait until December 15th to talk about any frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I'm pretty sure what he sees is visions of weenies dancing in his head. I have a feeling many of us will by Dec 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Indeed. Quintuple bunner stuff....It's coming John and you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I have a feeling many of us will by Dec 20. I hope so. If not, I've got the crow on standby ready to be eaten on Christmas day. Two Christmas's in a row of crow banquet would really blow; let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Nothing like you calling for a repeat of one of the worst winters on record based on an overnight flip in model runs. Some things never change. not sure why people were "excited" about December based on anything models showed, they NEVER showed anything great for our latitude, just HINTED at it becoming more favorable, which was clearly incorrect. And considering what has been depicted the past 3 runs of the euro/ensmebles and multiple GFS runs/ensembles this month is a punt....The pattern over the pacific is (but hopefully wont continue to be) a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Euro has a miller b look to it at 240 hours. It's warm in the east but it's over 200 hours out. This run develops a nice -NAO. this is hardly a nice -nao not to mention, there is no cold air on our side of the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 May be a silly question, but I'm guessing that the recurvature of Typhoon Bopha out in the WPac won't be doing anything to dislodge this horrendous Pacific pattern? Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 May be a silly question, but I'm guessing that the recurvature of Typhoon Bopha out in the WPac won't be doing anything to dislodge this horrendous Pacific pattern? Thoughts anyone? should cause the SOI to go negative and a trough develops in the east within the next week. Models will be playing catch up this week.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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