bluewave Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It really looks like the ENSO neutral conditions allowed a -PDO type pattern to dominate leading to -PNA signal continuing on the models. It's a tough pattern for us since any -NAO can link up with the SE Ridge allowing storms to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Modelcasting will get you nowhere...that's why I think analyzing the anomalies on the Day 7 Euro is fruitless to begin wtih. We're looking at a few weeks of disruptions to the PV/stratospheric vortex until we can get it dislodged or re-aligned ... and this could be timed with a better MJO and maybe less solar activity. The way things shook down in this regard over the last week or two has certainly ended the contest from now until around the holidays anywhere south of Philly in my opinion. By the middle of Dec we could be looking at a -PNA gradient pattern if this breakdown of the vortex does begin to occur...with the positioning of the gradient then owing partly to the the NAO/Atlantic. But even then, this pattern is most favorable for N New England. If we get lucky we could see some front end wintry stuff. But much still remains to be seen. The Euro strat maps look terrible through Day 7-10 right now. Yeah I'm hesitant to buy into any one solution for the D7+ period. We see the drastic changes in the GFS even for something as near-term as the storm Mon-Tues. With that being said, I think it's clear enough to say the next 7-10 days will feature no wintry threats for our area. Good news is we start seeing the torch anomalies get erased in the Plains states by this weekend into next week, with a large scale Central US trough likely to develop in the medium range. This will put the baroclinic zone along the NW periphery of the SE ridge for the time being, meaning most snow/ice threats are likely to be confined to interior New England/Northeast. Remains to be seen when and exactly how far south that gradient presses in the D 7-15 range. I do like seeing colder temp anomalies entering the US though, and significant cold across Canada. In my winter outlook I mentioned the 52-53 season as the caveat year, a -NAO/AO but a terrible north pacific, but I'm not ready to go there for December yet. December 1952 featured strong neg height anomalies across the entire NPAC w/ zero semblance of ridging. If we can at least get the EPO to neutralize in the longer term, pump a bit of ridging into sern Alaska (the -PNA Western cold dump is likely to stay), then some of that cold can be directed further east. The NAO is crucial as well and has been very poorly modelled beyond D 5-7. The negative AO is a lock as we've already tanked and look to remain negative, so that's one good thing. Unfortunately if we can't get the NAO to help us as well, the NPAC's going to rule the roost for awhile. So the bottom line from me is I wouldn't write off the second half of December yet, but the pattern will favor the Plains and New England for the next week to 10 days. Beyond the 12th or so, I'm hesitant to make any calls about storm threats as modelling is very erratic out at that range w/ the global pattern. Will be interesting to see if the next Euro weeklies update on Thursday ditches the west based NAO idea or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The image was different than it was yesterday. That new image is no doubt ugly for our area. My apologies. I did not look at the time of your post. Hopefully we go back to seeing a more favorable pattern in the mid-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My apologies. I did not look at the time of your post. Hopefully we go back to seeing a more favorable pattern in the mid-long range. That's fine. Misunderstandings happen. And agreed about the favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nice little mid level warm tongue ahead of the front on the NAM. 10 c 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It was 69 today when I visited the grease trucks at Rutgers. if it aint gonna snow, that works for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 0z GFS is a decent run after the GLC next week. Looks like it establishes a block with 2 possible storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 0z GFS is a decent run after the GLC next week. Looks like it establishes a block with 2 possible storms. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Jeez. The PNA and the EPO look like **** though. The Ukie and the GGEM also show a lakes cutter for next weeks storm. The GGEM also shows some chances of storms after next weeks storm. Maybe just maybe this storm coming up will do the trick to this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The PNA and the EPO look like **** though. The Ukie and the GGEM also show a lakes cutter for next weeks storm. The GGEM also shows some chances of storms after next weeks storm. Maybe just maybe this storm coming up will do the trick to this pattern. Can I see the EPO and PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 How would a strong west based block -NAO combine with an active pacific jet? We don't really need arctic air to get a snowstorm this time of year, a marginal airmass can actually be quite sufficient except for the immediate coast. Very up and down with the temperatures for the rest of this week into next, should drop into the low 40s Thursday, then maybe more 60s for the weekend, could drop back into the 40s for a day, go up into the 60s with the cutter (looks impressive on latest gfs, strong wind potential maybe?), and then back into the upper 30s low 40s after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The Euro and GFS offer some opportunities after next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The -NAO is going to waste with such a strong -PNA pattern this month. This December is featuring a 1950's cold PDO pattern with the Pacific calling the shots here. That is why there was so little snow in the 1950's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Its definitely a different sort of -PNA than we had during November, when it was exceptionally warm out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If you're sitting here early this afternoon looking for a good sign, I suppose you could check out the 6z GEFS for a nice scenario. All of the cold bottled up over Alaska dumps east/southeast in a -PNA regime while the vortex is disrupted a bit allowing the -NAO ridge over Iceland to move farther west not only to Greenland but over the Davis Stragiht. This would likely bring about a -PNA driven gradient-type pattern that could hypothetically be favorable for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not sure exactly what forced this change on the GEFS but it's worth noting especially considering yesterdays Euro weeklies. The Pacific pattern flips to one that is much more favorable for bringing very cold air into the conus by Days 7 - 10 with the PV more favorably aligned. The blocking on the Atlantic side would come as a bonus at that point given the pattern developing after D 7. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah, I'm not sure what exactly is causing those changes, but it certainly is a good pattern depicted. And this is two GEFS runs in a row, and it's not THAT far out. Perhaps we just get so many cutters/disturbances that act as wave breakers that we turn the NAO more negative and even more west based just from the troposphere. There can be times where we can generate a negative NAO via the troposphere without stratospheric support. It's just harder to do and wouldn't be as sustained. Still don't really know much yet about the Pacific, but it always seemed like the Pacific was progged to change for the better somewhat. The uber PAC jet gets dislodged somewhat. Without any NAO help, it's probably a classic La Nina gradient pattern, maybe Dec 2008 style. But with it, that gradient shifts south. I'm not sure what to make of all this but it's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That said, I still don't really think the Pacific in itself will look good enough in that time frame to provide snow for us without help from the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That said, I still don't really think the Pacific in itself will look good enough in that time frame to provide snow for us without help from the NAO. The problem with the GEFS is that they keep building heights west back toward the Bering instead of into Western Canada. Hopefully, we eventually see the heights building more over the PNA region either later this month or next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The problem with the GEFS is that they keep building heights west back toward the Bering instead of into Western Canada. Hopefully, we eventually see the heights building more over the PNA region either later this month or next. Even just building a bit into Alaska would be nice. Anyway, the Euro ensemble mean at day 10 actually looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 How would a strong west based block -NAO combine with an active pacific jet? 10/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Only the very tops of the Verrazano Bridge towers are visible above the fog from my 8th flr viewing window in Boro Park. Someone posted a great photo on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Euro ensembles today have the MJO coming back, in phases 1/2, by third week of December. So that might help us out in the Pacific again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 As long as that ridge is that far off in the Pacific , the trough sits out on the west coast and the main piece never makes to it the east coast until after the 20 th . The 10 day Euro keeps showing you SW flow and too much east coast ridging for my taste . Any storm that comes out likely cuts . I would bet on the last week on Dec as the real potential for a winter pattern to develop . Its possible it snows before then however , theres no locking the trough off in the east thru week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Euro ensembles today have the MJO coming back, in phases 1/2, by third week of December. So that might help us out in the Pacific again: Great observation. And just a reminder: Here are the MJO phase 1 and 2 correlation composites to the 500mb pattern for December, respectively. Phase 1 also correlates to an improved NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Ridiculously strong signal for a huge east-based NAO block on the 18z GEFS at 180 hours. Now it's just about getting this to retrograde. Nice to have a starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 0z gfs look pretty decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 After the 15th the pattern gets rolling really nice on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Active pattern on the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Active pattern on the 0z GFS EURO looks terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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