MJO812 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I have noticed that forecasted high temps have been busting high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Take a look whats off to your south and west temp wise at this hour , you will not bust tomrrow and Tuesday when its 60 . Gets very cold thrs thrs nite , but by friday its gone again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS has shown possible coastal storm starting late on the 16th the last few runs....first 15 days of the month looking snowless in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Rainy all the way up here at 800 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Rainy all the way up here at 800 feet. Whatelse were you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 just posting obs in an obs thread. Whatelse were you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Check out the 12z ECMWF 500 mb Height anomalies. Not a bad look to this particular frame at all. Ridging in the pacific and a west based -NAO ridge, all this with cold air dumping into almost the entire CONUS. This would be around the date that many meteorologists have suggested a pattern change to occur. Looking at a NHEM view, it's more East based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looking at a NHEM view, it's more East based. It's debatable. There's ridging trying to get established into the West Based regions, but looking at a NH standpoint, the East based regions also have ridging as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 SE ridge to dominate this week an next here in the east . Look for the trough to re emerge around the 15 th my question is , is it transient or can it get estasblished ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 In my opinion , its progressive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's not really going to matter much what the Atlantic side does in regard to blocking while the Pacific is still so unfavorable for any real colder and snowier weather here. The models are showing a mild -NAO pattern like we saw in December 2001 for at least the next 10 days. I think the problem is that we are seeing ENSO neutral conditions allowing for a -PDO like pattern to emerge with very cold weather staying put near Alaska for the time being. Ideally, we would need to see the ridge really build over Alaska and the cold to get dislodged to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The pattern is close to doing what we want in the next 15 days , The EPO will start to turn NEG I think the models may not hav a handle on the speed and direction of the PV in alaska that is goin to get displaced over the next 7 days . If we get the vortex to come more east than south , then we will have the makings of a good pattern set up for the second half of DEC . The first 15 days are snowless - but think we turn in the second half . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Clouds sticked in longer than forecast, which I thought they would based on last night's runs. Currently only 56.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Clouds sticked in longer than forecast, which I thought they would based on last night's runs. Currently only 56.3F Actually its a marine layer courtesy of the warm moist flow over the now relatively cool ocean. Similar to a spring setup. I have been fluctuating around zero visibility in South Wantagh the last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Check out the 12z ECMWF 500 mb Height anomalies. Not a bad look to this particular frame at all. Ridging in the pacific and a west based -NAO ridge, all this with cold air dumping into almost the entire CONUS. This would be around the date that many meteorologists have suggested a pattern change to occur. Dont mean to come off condescending here, but that H5 map is awful for NE snowlovers. In fact, awful would be a bit of an understatement. The ridging in the PAC is not only too far west, but it doesnt help us at all, rather it just develops a gradient and drives warm PAC air into the CONUS. Secondly, the Atlantic is perhaps the worst it possibly could be. We have the core of negative H5 anomalies right where we want a big block. Sorry, but a vortex of the DS is not going to give us snow, it will only prop up more ridges and force storms to cut through the lakes. There is no NAO block and it is certainly not west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Upton, we need a dense fog advisory on the South Shore BAD! We are officially down to zero in South Wantagh and there isn't even a mention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 ocean must be colder than the air now.....nice advection fog ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dont mean to come off condescending here, but that H5 map is awful for NE snowlovers. In fact, awful would be a bit of an understatement. The ridging in the PAC is not only too far west, but it doesnt help us at all, rather it just develops a gradient and drives warm PAC air into the CONUS. Secondly, the Atlantic is perhaps the worst it possibly could be. We have the core of negative H5 anomalies right where we want a big block. Sorry, but a vortex of the DS is not going to give us snow, it will only prop up more ridges and force storms to cut through the lakes. There is no NAO block and it is certainly not west based. Agreed buddy. The next 2 weeks are looking shot. And that could be conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Agreed buddy. The next 2 weeks are looking shot. And that could be conservative Im going to be upstate until the 15th, then home for about 6 weeks. Hopefully SW CT gets rocking by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 21Z Visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 21Z Visibility I an assure you its 0 here about a mile from the Bay. It may be that its localized but certainly worthy of an advisory during high impact rush hour. (right along the water) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I an assure you its 0 here about a mile from the Bay. It may be that its localized but certainly worthy of an advisory during high impact rush hour. (right along the water) its zero at JFK, its advection fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Only the very tops of the Verrazano Bridge towers are visible above the fog from my 8th flr viewing window in Boro Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 its zero at JFK, its advection fog Yep, I shot back up to a quarter mile or more in a just a couple minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 22Z Visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dont mean to come off condescending here, but that H5 map is awful for NE snowlovers. In fact, awful would be a bit of an understatement. The ridging in the PAC is not only too far west, but it doesnt help us at all, rather it just develops a gradient and drives warm PAC air into the CONUS. Secondly, the Atlantic is perhaps the worst it possibly could be. We have the core of negative H5 anomalies right where we want a big block. Sorry, but a vortex of the DS is not going to give us snow, it will only prop up more ridges and force storms to cut through the lakes. There is no NAO block and it is certainly not west based. His comments were directed toward the 12/2 run of the Euro, which looked a helluva lot better than it did today. That map updated to show today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 His comments were directed toward the 12/2 run of the Euro, which looked a helluva lot better than it did today. That map updated to show today's run. Modelcasting will get you nowhere...that's why I think analyzing the anomalies on the Day 7 Euro is fruitless to begin wtih. We're looking at a few weeks of disruptions to the PV/stratospheric vortex until we can get it dislodged or re-aligned ... and this could be timed with a better MJO and maybe less solar activity. The way things shook down in this regard over the last week or two has certainly ended the contest from now until around the holidays anywhere south of Philly in my opinion. By the middle of Dec we could be looking at a -PNA gradient pattern if this breakdown of the vortex does begin to occur...with the positioning of the gradient then owing partly to the the NAO/Atlantic. But even then, this pattern is most favorable for N New England. If we get lucky we could see some front end wintry stuff. But much still remains to be seen. The Euro strat maps look terrible through Day 7-10 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Dont mean to come off condescending here, but that H5 map is awful for NE snowlovers. In fact, awful would be a bit of an understatement. The ridging in the PAC is not only too far west, but it doesnt help us at all, rather it just develops a gradient and drives warm PAC air into the CONUS. Secondly, the Atlantic is perhaps the worst it possibly could be. We have the core of negative H5 anomalies right where we want a big block. Sorry, but a vortex of the DS is not going to give us snow, it will only prop up more ridges and force storms to cut through the lakes. There is no NAO block and it is certainly not west based. The image was different than it was yesterday. That new image is no doubt ugly for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Actually its a marine layer courtesy of the warm moist flow over the now relatively cool ocean. Similar to a spring setup. I have been fluctuating around zero visibility in South Wantagh the last couple of hours. Right, but not necessarily. There was a clearing from KHWV to KFOK, and dew points were slightly higher there than what they were the more west you went on the island. The ocean did play some role though. Looking at vis satellite imagery, it was only a narrow band of clouds and advection fog about 15 miles wide that extended northeast over some parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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