uncle W Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 LOL, well it may prevent a few places from having their warmest December on record. Nobody in the Northeast will really come close, however, there are quite a few big cities in the Midwest/TN Valley and south that have remarkably good chances right now, as a matter of fact some places like MEM/ATL/BHM are on pace to absolutely annihilate 1984 right now, even with a near normal rest of the month they'd have it beat by a reasonable margin. I was looking at 1912-13 as a possible analog and there are some similarities...The mei looks very similar...The jma looks similar...NYC had a snowfall in November and a major snowstorm Christmas eve...A torch January...Cold February...Not much snowfall after the 12/24 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 the winter of 1912-13...it was pretty bad for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z Euro is vastly different than its prior run for the day 10 storm, keeping it further south, and much colder in our area. It has a 1040mb high to the north of the storm over southern Canada. We will see what happens from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro now has the big ULL from the mid-week system cutting off underneath a block to the north. Sits over the Northeast through Day 7. -12C 850 temperatures on Sunday. And now, what appears to be a storm threat developing for Christmas or Boxing Day in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro now has the big ULL from the mid-week system cutting off underneath a block to the north. Sits over the Northeast through Day 7. -12C 850 temperatures on Sunday. And now, what appears to be a storm threat developing for Christmas or Boxing Day in the long range. Getting the late week inland-runner short wave to cut-off to our NE is absolutely crucial in setting the stage for any wintry threat that follows. If it doesn't cut off and just continues on its merry way into the north atlantic - say hello to wash, rinse, repeat w/ the mid level ridging building out ahead of the Christmas short wave. The cut-off in SE Canada would maintain confluence and keep the cold air readily available across the northern tier.The short wave ejecting from the Pacific would have no choice but to cut due east to the mid atlantic coast if that monster 50/50 type low remains in place. Folks also have to understand that we want this late week inland runner as strong as possible. Weak lows that transfer east of New England do zero work in setting up a 50/50 or forcing the Canadian polar air into the northern tier. We want a bombing low to finally rid this putrid airmass that's been plaguing the East so far this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 FWIW the 12z JMA goes towards EURO & closes the low off way farther south compared to GFS. I wonder if this trend will continue and we get redevelopment farther south. Maybe some backlash snowshowers? Can't tell how much precip would fall after this frame since the JMA graphics suck... REMEMBER, most of the precip falls with the warm front before the low closes off east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble actually looks rather similar to the JMA, closing off the Friday low sooner and further east than the operational run, although not quite as quick or far east as the JMA. Not that it will make any difference, but if by any chance this trend continued, it might make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Getting the late week inland-runner short wave to cut-off to our NE is absolutely crucial in setting the stage for any wintry threat that follows. If it doesn't cut off and just continues on its merry way into the north atlantic - say hello to wash, rinse, repeat w/ the mid level ridging building out ahead of the Christmas short wave. The cut-off in SE Canada would maintain confluence and keep the cold air readily available across the northern tier.The short wave ejecting from the Pacific would have no choice but to cut due east to the mid atlantic coast if that monster 50/50 type low remains in place. Folks also have to understand that we want this late week inland runner as strong as possible. Weak lows that transfer east of New England do zero work in setting up a 50/50 or forcing the Canadian polar air into the northern tier. We want a bombing low to finally rid this putrid airmass that's been plaguing the East so far this December. The danger with the fast Pacific flow is that the 50/50 gets dislodged by the kicker moving into the West and Central states around 10 days out. The Euro is still showing a parade of storms coming into the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yes. But the GEFS still has higher heights across the AK region. And maintains a cross-polar longer than Euro ensemble mean. A system will break away from the NE Pacific trough, sometime between 25-27th. If we still have the cross-polar flow and the west-based -NAO in place, we can see snow. The GEFS has higher heights over Northern Alaska, but there is still too much energy digging in along the West Coast with the tendency to pump the SE Ridge and WAA into our area in the wake of the departing cooler airmass. We would like to see more ridging extending all along the West Coast in later runs for a significant snow threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z NAEFS Looks like some decent Arctic air finally begins spilling into Montana near the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like some decent Arctic air finally begins spilling into Montana near the end of the month. Yep. Remember how this map was full of red last year. What a disaster it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yep. Remember how this map was full of red last year. What a disaster it was. We'll see if the bulk of the Arctic air holds on over Western Canada or we can get a piece to break off and drop into the Western or Central US initially. I guess it will depend on how EPO behaves later this month into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The GEFS has higher heights over Northern Alaska, but there is still too much energy digging in along the West Coast with the tendency to pump the SE Ridge and WAA into our area in the wake of the departing cooler airmass. We would like to see more ridging extending all along the West Coast in later runs for a significant snow threat here. I think the smoothing out ensemble means this far out, make it looks worse than it will be. We can also overwhelm the -PNA or pacific jet, with a Aleutian/AK bridge or big block over Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Let me first make clear that there is no big winter nut than I however I don't thnk what we are about to see is that hard to pick out pls go to your favorite model site and toggle thru the " north America wide " 500 -mb pattern over the next 10 days and u will see what's obvious. Right out off the west coast u see a beautiful " ugly " ridge to the east of Catalina , That has bad intentions for us , what happens is a dry ULL stalls for a few days in the NE so it's cold and dry for several days. , however it gets scurried out in the end because that PAC trof pulls the ridge axis back. So when I keep reading " The signal is there for post Xmas " I Tell myself yeh if I lived in Chicago . That ULL and atlantic are powerless against the pacific. You have understand that trof axis is on a string. It gets let out a bit but has to pull back as the PAC ridge retrogrades The atlantic is like a little kid in a heavy weight fight. The NAO dips every time a system rolls thru but rises again as the ridge pops. any system christmas week has a Better than equal chance of cutting because that west coast pulls our trof back and that west coast trof is being being controlled by that PAC ridge. That's a real. Teleconnections So every time u see these fantasy snowstorms 10 12 15 days out. Ask ur self what's diff in the pacific and so far nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 In short That day 10 ridge axis is too far into the pacific to allow that trof to the east coast so the model turn it in the mid section where it should naturally turn. The speed and placement of the pacific determines if a storm comes under " any " block or if it routes it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No calling off of winter here , just a week after the next cool down. I tend to focus on no more than 10 days at a time So I hope no one takes my posts as the end all be all. I base my opinions on the PAC , it's not gona stay like ths for the next 8 weeks. Just goin out 10 days. Call off the dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I was looking at 1912-13 as a possible analog and there are some similarities...The mei looks very similar...The jma looks similar...NYC had a snowfall in November and a major snowstorm Christmas eve...A torch January...Cold February...Not much snowfall after the 12/24 storm... Off memory the Nhem anomalies overall reminded me somewhat of 90-91. I believe 90-91 was largely a cold winter in the Nhem but not over NOAM minus the Western U.S. I think Europe had one of their snowier and colder winters on record but the Pac overwhelmed the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 One nice sign I see this morning of note is by Day 10 the core of the coldest air in Canada shifts slightly eastward away from Alaska which asscoaited with that main PV . That may accomplish 2 things , it may allows the possibility of higher heights to nose its way into alaska and it forces the main piece of the PV further west so that core of the cold gets forced south into the upper midwest and great lakes not not down the west coast . Now it will be a matter of ,can u get the PAC to temporary build ridging into alaska so theres a continued forcing of the main PV west from over the top of the pole If you build a block the cold air slides underneath . Trying to figure out what more tempermental Modeling or Wives . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z Euro was pretty awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z Euro was pretty awful... No it wasn't . The mean wasn't bad either. It showed the 26th storm also near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No it wasn't . The mean wasn't bad either. It showed the 26th storm also near the coast. nothing changes, blocking actually weakens and the -PNA shows no sings of easing. Its not going to snow in that pattern... its a rain->cold->rain pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z Euro was pretty awful... Notable differnce PV is in Central Canada on 0z , was back over Alaska on yesterdays 12z So , theres a chance that next weeks system doesnt cut like i thought last nite , because the ridge is over the rockies this morning and not east of Cali .That argues for a system east of the MTNS . Pretty big swing in 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Notable differnce PV is in Central Canada on 0z , was back over Alaska on yesterdays 12z So , theres a chance that next weeks system doesnt cut like i thought last nite , because the ridge is over the rockies this morning and not east of Cali .That argues for a system east of the MTNS . Pretty big swing in 12 hrs I guess the big question is can we even trust the colder looking Euro ensemble mean from this far out when the warm events this week at some point were modeled colder also? We could see a shift further east in the mid-range only to trend warmer the closer we get to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I guess the big question is can we even trust the colder looking Euro ensemble mean from this far out when the warm events this week at some point were modeled colder also? We could see a shift further east in the mid-range only to trend warmer the closer we get to the event. I would just like to see 2 or 3 model runs that have some similarities . And I dont mean individual systems , but the up and downstream players are moving like crazy , so its fuzzy from here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I would just like to see 2 or 3 model runs that have some similarities . And I dont mean individual systems , but the up and downstream players are moving like crazy , so its fuzzy from here . Yeah, it would be nice if the Euro ensemble mean was onto something and held serve without trending further west in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I guess the big question is can we even trust the colder looking Euro ensemble mean from this far out when the warm events this week at some point were modeled colder also? We could see a shift further east in the mid-range only to trend warmer the closer we get to the event. The Euro ensemble is starting picking up cut off block near Alaska between 120-168hr. That's going to help sustain the cross-polar flow, if it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I guess the big question is can we even trust the colder looking Euro ensemble mean from this far out when the warm events this week at some point were modeled colder also? We could see a shift further east in the mid-range only to trend warmer the closer we get to the event. I wouldn't bet on it from this far out...It's funny that lousy winters have great patterns 10 days out and good winters much sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS and Euro both continue to advertise increasing cold in the post 12/21 time frame. The vortex over AK continues to move and break down as higher heights and meridial flow dominate the arctic and allow for plenty of cold down into the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS and Euro both continue to advertise increasing cold in the post 12/21 time frame. The vortex over AK continues to move and break down as higher heights and meridial flow dominate the arctic and allow for plenty of cold down into the northeast It looks like we're going to cool down to near normal for a little while before another major storm heads well to our west. I really do believe that we are still at least a few weeks away from any significant wintry precipitation threats. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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