96blizz Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Perhaps some mythical backend snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 970s just off the NJ coast...a little farther east or a better air mass and this is the biggest run since 12/26/10 hands down. this is very reminiscent of Dec 1992. No cold air on this side of the world...stalled out low....one difference, thankfully, is the lacking strong hP in canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 this is very reminiscent of Dec 1992. No cold air on this side of the world...stalled out low....one difference, thankfully, is the lacking strong hP in canada.... Was just thinking this. And I remember the flooding we had in Monmouth County was only surpassed recently by Sandy (of course). I also remember it snowed even to the coast on the backend... Huge storm. Will be fun to track even though cold air is an obvious issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I also remember it snowed even to the coast on the backend... Barely. I had an inch of utter slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Barely. I had an inch of utter slop. I didn't say a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 On the positive side, the EURO has very stubborn strong confluence in a great spot. Almost a banana type high in the later frames. That would ultimately affect the outcome if it is a real feature. We are going to need the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I didn't say a lot... He's not one to say something just to dampen spirits. He's also not one to plan your next flight if you're snow-chasing. 44/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With that high pressure in such a good position over SE Canada I find it hard to belive that we won't get more CAA. Also with a developing CCB you will get plenty of dynamic cooling. Great run for the western side of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Very nice run for us up here in the far nw burbs.. Next week is lookin quite snowy to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I made a seperate thread specifically dedicated to this threat http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38306-potential-noreaster-december-18-21/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The retrograding block into the Davis Straits region has been a notorious precursor of major cyclogenesis events on the East Coast throughout history (a ticking time bomb so to speak). The question in my mind is not whether we get the storm but what are the finer details -- that is, what we actually care about at the surface. Models are still having a difficult time in terms of energy handling / spacing of the three short waves embedded in the flow. Would not be surprised to see that second wave lose/gain energy or seemingly disappear altogether on future runs. The final wave in the parade is usually the one that does the dirty work. My guess right now is the 130-144hr light snow the ECMWF depicts is probably BS. We'll likely see the first wave attempt to cut into the Lakes but transfer south of Long Island. First storm has its sfc high pressure too far north for the PHL-NYC area to get any accumulating snows as depicted. Then we'll have to monitor the cold push behind the first wave, and the presence of mid level ridging across sern Canada. I find it amazing that this 18th-20th threat was detected by data fairly far in advance, and if this occurs, we've got to give ourselves a pat on the back for those of us who saw this potential period from early in December. The game has just begun folks. BTW, the pattern immediately following the 20th storm should be turning significantly colder w/ finally some below normal high temps on a consistent basis for the Eastern US. Definite improvements occurring in the NPAC by D 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The Euro ensembles look incredible at 180+hrs...204hr has a PNA spike out west, a big block from the D Straight into Central Canada..and a big ridge building over the Aleutians. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Very interesting analogs. I checked out Dec 1996...a storm cut into the lower Great Lakes on the 5th, then a new low developed and scooted just south of Long Island by the 6th. On the 7th and 8th, a somewhat more significant low developed along the mid-Atlantic coast and then cut into eastern New England. You can nitpick details, but the overall indications of models right now have a similar outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 WOW December 2010, December 2010 and more December 2010 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z ECWMF ensembles don't like the idea of a huge wrapped up system. Actually more of a SWFE/Miller B hybrid, but cold enough for much of the region. Also much more progressive with the system. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z ECWMF ensembles don't like the idea of a huge wrapped up system. Actually more of a SWFE/Miller B hybrid, but cold enough for much of the region. Also much more progressive with the system. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif Remember that this is an ensemble mean, so everything gets smoothed out. I'm sure some members have a more amplified storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 December 2010, December 2010 and more December 2010 lol. December 2010 minus any real cold air for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 December 2010 minus any real cold air for the East. I guess his point was that the analog keeps coming up..would be much colder the second half of the month if those analogs came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The long range guidance and ensemble mean height anomalies posted above, which take us into late December and January, are beginning to match up with the QBO analogs which showed the big time pattern change in January and February. We're also starting to see the guidance pick up on the return of the Aleutian ridge in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I guess his point was that the analog keeps coming up..would be much colder the second half of the month if those analogs came to fruition. I think we'll see colder weather coming behind the low next week, but it looks like any double digit daily negative departures relative to the means should end up over the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think we'll see colder weather coming behind the low next week, but it looks like any double digit daily negative departures relative to the means should end up over the Southeast. With Canada torched even behind the low isn't very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With Canada torched even behind the low isn't very cold Which low are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think we are going to need one of these pieces of energy to be out of the Rockies so better data gets absorbed into the models and they know which feature to key on . I wana see if the 1st system can drag the trof east . You can run a strorm to the benchmark in AUG and it obviously doesnt snow . We really are missing an important ingerdient ,COLD air and until the models can solve that for me . Im headed to Killington . I am impressed that the models see a big coastal low 10 days out and if it holds will be a good job by them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With Canada torched even behind the low isn't very cold The really cold stuff should still be locked up near Alaska and Siberia in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Very interesting analogs. I checked out Dec 1996...a storm cut into the lower Great Lakes on the 5th, then a new low developed and scooted just south of Long Island by the 6th. On the 7th and 8th, a somewhat more significant low developed along the mid-Atlantic coast and then cut into eastern New England. You can nitpick details, but the overall indications of models right now have a similar outcome. Its important to note that Central Park recorded a trace of snow in December 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Interestingly, the JMA and Euro look very similar for the Wednesday storm. They also have identical verification stats at 8 days out. The GFS lags behind both. I wouldn't trust the GFS here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 3 camps have different solutions. GGEM/ GGEM ensembles vs Euro/Euro ensembles vs GFS/GEFS. The GGEM ensembles focus on the first wave. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I think we'll see colder weather coming behind the low next week, but it looks like any double digit daily negative departures relative to the means should end up over the Southeast. For the most part, if we're talking consistent double digit departures here...we're talking a storm track that brings snow to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 For the most part, if we're talking consistent double digit departures here...we're talking a storm track that brings snow to Raleigh. Yeah I mean I think it's impressive to get a string of 3-4 days of double digit negatives, within a pattern of generally -5 to -10s on a daily basis. For January, consistent highs in the 28-32F range is pretty cold for our area. Rarely do we see < 20F highs for more than 2-3 consecutive days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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