SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Big storm potential but I don't like the fact that there's no cold air in place before it. We need more separation between the weak wave and the stronger s/w or have the first one really amplify as it passes us so it creates a more solid 50/50 low and drains a bit more cold air before the bigger storm starts taking shape. This is the gfs though and we will probably see dozens of solutions so over analyzing one run is pretty pointless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 00Z GFS now the 6th or 7th run in a row showing some sort of blocking high trying to form over AK late in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 00z Euro says bingo at 192 hours. Plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro's a big hit at 174-186,. Awesome solution. You could argue you'd want it a little farther east to avoid some mixing at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro's a big hit at 174-186,. Awesome solution. You could argue you'd want it a little farther east to avoid some mixing at the coast. It'll be 300 miles to the west at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It'll be 300 miles to the west at 12z More likely to be east than west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 More likely to be east than west. A little early to be calling individual model runs (and trends) at this point, there are a lot of potential waves and impulse within the mean flow here that could interfere and push either system (or both) in a different direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Euro's a big hit at 174-186,. Awesome solution. You could argue you'd want it a little farther east to avoid some mixing at the coast. With a track like that and those rates the column will take care of itself. You are not goin to rain w an intensifying low on a NE wind as a system heads near the BM I think it's a case of the models not seeing low level cold air 7 days out. If you lock on that solution BL temps will get colder on the model as we get closer. It's 7 days out and it looks to prog upper 30s. Get me that solution and the dynamics will take care of itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A little early to be calling individual model runs (and trends) at this point, there are a lot of potential waves and impulse within the mean flow here that could interfere and push either system (or both) in a different direction. The flow is progressive and there is a decent block. Would be hard for the second wave to go too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 A little early to be calling individual model runs (and trends) at this point, there are a lot of potential waves and impulse within the mean flow here that could interfere and push either system (or both) in a different direction. . Nah. Take GLC off the table , not gona run anything into that block. 2 choices. It's up or it's out. But ths is coming out off the SE coast Just a few more days too see if the ridge line flat. Over the Rockies. Or over the central US. That will determine if there's enough ridging in front of it. I think there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 00z Euro Control run just came in with a 976mb low near us on Monday and a 972mb low near us on Wednesday. The first storm is mostly rain but the second one is snow from NYC west. INSANE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is going to be a deep system. Lotta 970s showing up a week away. So places inland that are all snow will forget how awful the first 20 days of dec were. For me in colts neck I'm sure it's gona be dicey in the beginning but a deep system should eventually turn me over If its one system into the Ohio valley that dies then we prob snow when a secondary started bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is going to be a deep system. Lotta 970s showing up a week away. So places inland that are all snow will forget how awful the first 20 days of dec were. For me in colts neck I'm sure it's gona be dicey in the beginning but a deep system should eventually turn me over If its one system into the Ohio valley that dies then we prob snow when a secondary started bombing out. yup as always it will be a close call for us. Plenty of time to track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The 00z ECMWF ENS Mean bears some pretty strong similarities to the 00z Operational in terms of the track for the system. The Minimum SLP with this system of course is higher because this is a smoothed out mean, than it is for the Operational, but this is a pretty low pressure for a smoothed out mean being 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 - PNA - NAO always turn into great patterns for New England . Think they are a lock for 2 snow events in a row and the 2 nd system could possibly be one they remember . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z GFS ugly - Not a good run for this area . I Suspect the reason the 1 st system doesnt drag the cold front to the coast is due to the distance between both systems arent enough for the trof to buckle enough so the flow is more flat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We're still not in the range where individual OP runs matter any more than for general information and for fun tracking storms. The GFS appears to combine our main energy energy into wave downstream/out ahead from a warmer regime, allowing an even warmer and amplified solution. Although blocking does reduce the margin of error, with a pacific pattern so active and hostile, there are going to be more ebbs in the flow to iron out than what one would normally see in a very west based NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 All of the models are indicating the potential for a big storm system. I think the surface cold air is going to be an issue if the first wave doesn't move east and develop a psuedo- 50/50 like some of the guidance was showing yesterday. But, even then, we can still see snow away from the coast if a situation like the Canadian verifies where the storm rapidly deepens just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The shortwave and energy coming from the Pac is really vigirous on the Euro..it's just flying southeast into the Central US at 102 hrs. The first wave is weaker with a poor surface reflection but trying to go under NYC at 102 hrs...doesn't really matter because there isn't any precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks to be a little bit of a mess this run. The first wave is weak...so the antecedent airmass is poor to begin with. Then it looks like it has two different pieces of energy...one ejecting northeast through the MS Valley at 114 and the other all the way back in the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looks to be a little bit of a mess this run. The first wave is weak...so the antecedent airmass is poor to begin with. Then it looks like it has two different pieces of energy...one ejecting northeast through the MS Valley at 114 and the other all the way back in the Rockies. The models look very confused with the handling of the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 If our storm interacts with that wave, then an amplified and warmer solution could result. But given the progressive nature of the pattern I would think there would be more spacing and that piece out ahead would die out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Huge storm at 168..just a monster over the Carolina's. Rain for everybody involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 So now the euro develops a 3rd wave.. And it's a beast.. 972ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Such a shame that we don't have some cold air in place because there's huge potential here however even with a bomb, we could all be raining. So we'll probably have to wait until the cold finally arrives which is after all of these storms have cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 970s just off the NJ coast...a little farther east or a better air mass and this is the biggest run since 12/26/10 hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The models are still confused about which wave to focus on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This run gives Will ORH 6 thousand inches of snow. Roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 This is a huge shift... So we'll see how the ensembles respond. Flattens both waves 1-2, and then bombs the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Big Snowstorms love to come at the end of cold patterns , not many begin them . Lotta time to sort out details , Models are not goin to pick up low level cold air if it gets filtered in untilthe 1 st system is off the field . I thnk this more wet than white ( see above ) - but its 7 days out . should hav said right on coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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