Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The key will b how fast the 1st system gets off the playing field , so the block can get in the way and belly the second system under . I admitt i am happy to see that kind of signal , hard for me to get too crazy at 186 hrs out . But a lot of potential in the 10 days of the month Just took a look at H5 again. The key, once again, is blocking. We have bit of energy that is forced to stay into the 50/50 area by the NAO, then that is replaced by the second system around the 17th, which then serves as a 50/50 for the potential big one. Lots of energy to deal with, and being so far out, there are too many variables in place to consider this legit just yet. The good things are beginning to show up though on the past couple of runs: Pattern responding to NAO block PAC looking much better Sustained east coast trough with multiple threats If this keeps up, maybe winter has finally come to the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The key will b how fast the 1st system gets off the playing field , so the block can get in the way and belly the second system under . I admitt i am happy to see that kind of signal , hard for me to get too crazy at 186 hrs out . But a lot of potential in the 10 days of the month Right. Also, the PAC is still somewhat progressive during the Dec 19-20 event. There is that "flat rolling ridge" look upstream of our potent shortwave with very high height anomalies to our north. That does not scream a cutter at all, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Right. Also, the PAC is still somewhat progressive during the Dec 19-20 event. There is that "flat rolling ridge" look upstream of our potent shortwave with very high height anomalies to our north. That does not scream a cutter at all, IMO. I just told wife , im gona busy for the next 180 hrs ... didnt go over well . Will be back after Euro wana see what the block looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Updated 12/27/10 continues to be number 1. but 12/27 was POST storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I just told wife , im gona busy for the next 180 hrs ... didnt go over well . Will be back after Euro wana see what the block looks like Catch up on your sleep and house chores now before the real fun begins. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I just told wife , im gona busy for the next 180 hrs ... didnt go over well . Will be back after Euro wana see what the block looks like Haha Well one thing is that individual OP runs aren't that important at this stage of the game. So you still have a few more days of wife time lol. But it really is fun to track what is going on with the blocking and see how well it correlates with our thoughts. And if we turn out wrong it's always a good learning experience. But having the blocking gives solutions so much more room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 but 12/27 was POST storm... 12/27/10 featured several hours in the morning of heavy banding into the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I just told wife , im gona busy for the next 180 hrs ... didnt go over well . Will be back after Euro wana see what the block looks like Yep. Winter weather tracking in our region makes for a horrible mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Euro looks like it is going to come in like the GFS. More digging down south at 174 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 19th storm is now OTS on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 19th storm is now OTS on the Euro Very hard to believe but the GFS has been taking the Euro to lunch lately. Lets see what develops its a week away. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 19th storm is now OTS on the Euro Well at least thats east of the Mountains ,,,,,, Try not to take a single operational run to heart , What the Euro is telling you is it sees the block , thats a good thing . So relax 150 hrs to work it out . System 1 is colder too , so the pattern at the very ;least is changing . So RELAX ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Very hard to believe but the GFS has been taking the Euro to lunch lately. Lets see what develops its a week away. Rossi 12z GEFS has the storm offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This is a typical thing with a West-Based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 You just need enough of a SE ridge, The Euro may be shattering the Ridge too fast In turn the second short wave escapes east . Lets see in the coming days if it back just enough ' The block is there The eneregy is there and the Ridge axis thru the Rockies is there . Plenty of time to fit the final piece .Yesterday i was convinced it wasnt going to the lakes in the face of that block I am not sure it cant escape , but i am really not in that camp yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 19th storm is now OTS on the Euro Its having trouble handling the multiple pieces of energy that precede the 19th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can you provide some reasoning behind this thought? Its on every model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its on every model now. Thanks for playing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its on every model now. You are wrong a lot. Especially with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GEFS has the storm offshore Not saying I agree with them, but some members show a significant hit. The average looks like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Its on every model now. My point exactly...your posts consist of nothing but guessing, trolling and nonsense. And even then, you're still wrong. The vortex (which is actually a split portion of the PV) is centered over Russia and the Chukchi Sea ... north of Alaska, while a piece of the below normal height anomalies extends south of it into British Columbia which provides a completely different pattern than there would be if this vortex were sitting over Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 My point exactly...your posts consist of nothing but guessing, trolling and nonsense. And even then, you're still wrong. The vortex (which is actually a split portion of the PV) is centered over Russia and the Chukchi Sea ... north of Alaska, while a piece of the below normal height anomalies extends south of it into British Columbia which provides a completely different pattern than there would be if this vortex were sitting over Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska. huh, you stated I was wrong that the PV retrogrades north of AK, look at the above map. This causes Canada to get completly cut off of the cold air supply. I am not talking a full on torch of Canada but the airmass becomes stale. With no real cold air source we are going to have very marginal setups, even if the storm track is south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 huh, you stated I was wrong that the PV retrogrades north of AK, look at the above map. Can you even remember your own posts? Your exact post was "The Alaska vortex and PV looks to establish itself for the long term like last year". I then asked you to provide reasoning. You couldn't. Last year, the AK Vortex/PV was farther south, dominant and stationary. There is almost no comparison to be drawn between the pattern over Alaska this year and last year. The Pacific isn't great, but last year was a monstrosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Can you even remember your own posts? Your exact post was "The Alaska vortex and PV looks to establish itself for the long term like last year". I then asked you to provide reasoning. You couldn't. Last year, the AK Vortex/PV was farther south, dominant and stationary. There is almost no comparison to be drawn between the pattern over Alaska this year and last year. The Pacific isn't great, but last year was a monstrosity. The PV north of AK shows no signs of any real movement over the next 10 to 15 days. That is a pretty stable pattern with a -PNA. If it wasn't for the developing -NAO we would torch, even with the NAO it still a very marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 My point exactly...your posts consist of nothing but guessing, trolling and nonsense. And even then, you're still wrong. The vortex (which is actually a split portion of the PV) is centered over Russia and the Chukchi Sea ... north of Alaska, while a piece of the below normal height anomalies extends south of it into British Columbia which provides a completely different pattern than there would be if this vortex were sitting over Alaska or the Gulf of Alaska. MJO induced ridge trying to break split the cold anomalies over the Bering Sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Very hard to believe but the GFS has been taking the Euro to lunch lately. Lets see what develops its a week away. Rossi The Euro has not been the same model it once was since the upgrade a few years ago, it absolutely nails some events such as Sandy and some past winter storms...it undoubtedly hits some events dead on more than the GFS does but its been horrible at times the last few winters, particularly last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean still likes the warmer idea of a low track very close to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's way different than the 0z run which showed a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's way different than the 0z run which showed a miller b. That's right. The 12Z is more of a miller A wrapped up special. The danger is that the first low leaves the baroclinic zone in its wake too far north allowing the second storm to hug the coast too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The PV north of AK shows no signs of any real movement over the next 10 to 15 days. That is a pretty stable pattern with a -PNA. If it wasn't for the developing -NAO we would torch, even with the NAO it still a very marginal setup. It's not a dominant Alaskan vortex because its north of Alaska and that makes a huge difference. Plus it's not inducing a torch...and it's not in a similar position to last year nor is it similar to last year...so what's your point then? Your initial post means nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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