IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 pretty good discussion in here! Can a met please explain the implications of the crashing SOI values and how it pretains to our overall weather in the coming few weeks? A rapidly falling SOI implies El Nino-like conditions over the EQ Pacific, which will produce stronger Sub-Tropical Low Pressures entering the Southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 pretty good discussion in here! Can a met please explain the implications of the crashing SOI values and how it pretains to our overall weather in the coming few weeks? Most weather weenies have horrible eyesight from glazed pupils over the GFS every night. You should probably make your letters bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 A rapidly falling SOI implies El Nino-like conditions over the EQ Pacific, which will produce stronger Sub-Tropical Low Pressures entering the Southern US. But the effects of that wont be felt for moths, it takes a while for ENSO effects to be felt around the world. On the other hand, the MJO is going to enter phase 1, which may help us out a little bit, but it doesnt appear to be anything significant. What we really need is something to shift the vortex north of AK, we have the atlantic blocking, but the negative heights over the PAC are killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 OK , Here is where i attempt to brigde the hypothetical . The Euro takes the first feature up the through the Ohio Valley and ejects into New England so the result is a nice soaking rain , polar opposite than what the GFS sees . The second short wave " could exit " further south and east heres why . The first system existing mayb enough to force the second wave south by dragging the trof to the east and send the barroclinic south further south than the Euro OP is seeing . It just may be the case that the GFS is catching the first wave but its the second was day 9 - 10 that gets caught under the block and bellys under . Now its rare that 2 systems fly right in behind each other and take the same path however i am aware In crud patterns it happens . But im gona take a stab and say that where the error could b in the 10 day . Like i said its a bridge maybe a precarious one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro ensemble mean has a miller B off the coast for this upcoming weekend. It's warm though. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Euro ensemble mean has a miller B off the coast for this upcoming weekend. It's warm though. http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS168.gif you need that primary to die before ohio, not michigan to have any shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I am never one to look 200 plus hrs out , but my main point in my last post was , When you see a ridge line up over the Rockies ala 216 12 z euro and 18z GFS i just find it hard to believe that a system doesnt come up east along coast , not west of the MTNS . whether its rain or whatever the West argues for amp further east . I am talking about the second system here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I am never one to look 200 plus hrs out , but my main point in my last post was , When you see a ridge line up over the Rockies ala 216 12 z euro and 18z GFS i just find it hard to believe that a system doesnt come up east along coast , not west of the MTNS . whether its rain or whatever the West argues for amp further east . I am talking about the second system here True, especially considering the wavelengths are longest this time of year. Though admittedly I haven't had time to look at much modeling data from this afternoon, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 True, especially considering the wavelengths are longest this time of year. Though admittedly I haven't had time to look at much modeling data from this afternoon, yet. The ridge axis on the 18z GFS is over the mid section - which really argues for an OTS the Euro was over the Rockies . so middle ground ??? There is still one glaring problem , we are devoid of cold air . So even though i just think its east of the MTNS , that might not being saying much . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I am never one to look 200 plus hrs out , but my main point in my last post was , When you see a ridge line up over the Rockies ala 216 12 z euro and 18z GFS i just find it hard to believe that a system doesnt come up east along coast , not west of the MTNS . whether its rain or whatever the West argues for amp further east . I am talking about the second system here I can see why the hr 216 storm on the euro cuts, it goes neg tilt way to early. The one behind it though looks interesting. The first storm drug the pattern to the coast and cold air is starting to infiltrate towards the coast. You have a nice block and the hr 216 storm would be your 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I can see why the hr 216 storm on the euro cuts, it goes neg tilt way to early. The one behind it though looks interesting. The first storm drug the pattern to the coast and cold air is starting to infiltrate towards the coast. You have a nice block and the hr 216 storm would be your 50/50 low. I see your point , but some of the Euros issues in the past have been too amped up and too west Day 8 - 10 . I just see the trof coming a little more east from the 1 st system , I will concede this is an awful pattern ,It is the Euro and I do like it over other models , just trying to find a needle in a haystack here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It would be nice if we had a very amplified storm that could perhaps drag the cold air down and set us up for a much better system. The cold source just isn't there yet, but if the blocking continues and we get some improvement in the pacific, then maybe we could get something going. Signs of a much stormier pattern are definitely a good thing, warm and dry is 2001-2002 and last winter. Even though a coastal storm could mean mostly rain right now, I'll take it because it could lead to a much better setup as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Brett Anderson New ECMWF weekly update shows omega block signature over North America centered over Manitoba for week of Dec 24-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I just skimmed through in about 20 seconds, but happened to hit, "I'm telling ya folks, it's not over yet." Well it damn well better not be, winter just started 10 days ago. Well, look on the positive side. JB has the Korean model on his side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Looks nice on the GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp12216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Really nice run. Beautiful west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm probably going to be back in NE NJ for a little while around late December and January, hoping to finally see snow which I've had almost no luck with in Albany so far (both November events missed me to the south). There's still the lower heights out west and a lack of a strong cold air supply but I have some hope to perhaps see at least 1 snow event before the end of the month, especially with the modeled west based -NAO block. It's not an ideal pattern but hopefully it can work in this case. Better than where we were at this point last year for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Really nice block on the 8 - 10 day .With the jet cutting underneath and a block like that , It really may be game on . Many have pointed to around the 20th as the start date , and that may be when the gun goes off . I think the last 10 days will look very different from the first 20 . Pretty sure its a lock Windfall for New England , but I will say we would have to be really unlucky not get involved in whats coming up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The GFS is correcting north as expected with the low as it gets close enough to see the SE Ridge holding firm like the euro has been showing for days. yesterday today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Updated 12/27/10 continues to be number 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's a nice pseudo 50/50 low on the GFS at 156-168 hrs that forces the robust second shortwave underneath it and towards the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Oh man, wish I hadn't seen the GFS at 250+. Ridge spike out west, shortwave coming into the MS Valley...plenty of room for amplification and lots of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's a nice pseudo 50/50 low on the GFS at 156-168 hrs that forces the robust second shortwave underneath it and towards the SE. Yeh second short has to get east of MTN , thats a robust system , with a block there should b plenty of deepening along the coast , if u miss number 2 i agree number 3 looks like a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 That's a nice pseudo 50/50 low on the GFS at 156-168 hrs that forces the robust second shortwave underneath it and towards the SE. The next trough coming into the West Coast, helps kick this out of the Southwest faster. That doesn't give the SE ridge a chance to rebuild more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Funny there was so much talk of a gradient pattern. This really isn't a gradient pattern. A gradient pattern has negative anomalies/cold to the north and positive anomalies/warmth to the south. That creates a huge baroclinic zone for fast moving overrunning systems. We're not going to have that at all. It's warmth south and less warmth north. But the blocking greatly helps to suppress the jet so we definitely have storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Updated 12/27/10 continues to be number 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's also great that these 50/50 lows won't be fantasy considering we do have the blocking to the north to keep them in tact. Looks like the thoughts of the dec 16 storm shifting the jet south for a dec 19-20 threat certainly still hold merit. Then an improved PAC pattern just after that with another threat closer to Christmas. As time goes on, climo becomes less hostile for coastal regions to do well in a borderline airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Updated 12/27/10 continues to be number 1. Man that is one powerful -NAO block, and it's in an ideal position to prevent any storm to cut west of us. The question will be how much cold air there is. With that said its great to see the Atlantic Signal come back with a vengeance and if it repeats itself throughout the winter, things may get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This storm at 180 has me really interested, showing up on past couple of GFS runs. IF this H5 map doesnt get you excited, I dont know what will......great 50/50 in place, closed off vort over the SE riding up the coast Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's also great that these 50/50 lows won't be fantasy considering we do have the blocking to the north to keep them in tact. Looks like the thoughts of the dec 16 storm shifting the jet south for a dec 19-20 threat certainly still hold merit. Then an improved PAC pattern just after that with another threat closer to Christmas. As time goes on, climo becomes less hostile for coastal regions to do well in a borderline airmass. The key will b how fast the 1st system gets off the playing field , so the block can get in the way and belly the second system under . I admitt i am happy to see that kind of signal , hard for me to get too crazy at 186 hrs out . But a lot of potential in the 10 days of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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