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Analogs Hinting At Above Normal December Temperatures For NYC


bluewave

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With a few nights of radiational cooling, parts of Florida made down to the mid 20's before NYC did this winter.

1 41 36 39 -3 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 18 70 M M 10 1 25 80

2 52 41 47 5 18 0 0.04 0.0 0 3.0 14 230 M M 7 128 26 250

3 60 49 55 13 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 310 M M 2 18 19 250

4 62 47 55 14 10 0 0.07 0.0 0 3.0 8 180 M M 4 18 16 180

5 58 35 47 6 18 0 T 0.0 0 8.0 18 310 M M 4 33 310

6 40 29 35 -6 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.3 15 310 M M 0 21 310

7 46 35 41 1 24 0 0.14 0.0 0 2.5 12 250 M M 7 18 17 250

8 50 44 47 7 18 0 0.36 0.0 0 3.2 10 250 M M 9 1 14 250

9 50 42 46 6 19 0 0.18 0.0 0 6.8 15 10 M M 8 1 23 20

10 59 44 52 13 13 0 0.03 0.0 0 4.0 12 60 M M 10 1 17 60

11 58 41 50 11 15 0 0.06 0.0 0 5.6 15 300 M M 9 1 24 300

12 43 36 40 2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.3 10 280 M M 0 8 16 360

13 46 36 41 3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.5 12 50 M M 0 14 50

14 48 37 43 5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.2 16 260 M M 0 24 240

15 47 38 43 5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 10 100 M M 1 14 130

16 47 42 45 8 20 0 0.40 0.0 0 9.0 21 70 M M 10 1 30 60

17 43 40 42 5 23 0 0.29 0.0 0 9.1 18 70 M M 10 1 25 70

18 54 43 49 12 16 0 0.51 0.0 0 7.4 18 290 M M 8 1 27 260

19 47 39 43 7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.3 18 310 M M 3 32 310

20 47 35 41 5 24 0 0.02 0.0 0 5.3 15 110 M M 3 1 29 100

21 56 36 46 10 19 0 0.70 0.0 0 10.2 24 150 M M 9 1 40 160

22 38 36 37 1 28 0 T T 0 12.2 24 290 M M 8 43 300

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With December on track to finish above 40.0 degrees, I put together some snow fall stats for NYC

with similarly mild Decembers. The good news is that we avoided the T and 0 list with NYC at 0.4

and another opportunity for snow on Saturday.

2012....0.4..so far

2011....0

2006...0

2001...T

1999...T

1998...2.0

1996...T

1994...T

1990...7.2

1984...5.5

1982...3.0

1979...3.5

1971...T

1965...T

1957...8.7

1956...0.9

1923...1.5

1891...T

1889...0

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With December on track to finish above 40.0 degrees, I put together some snow fall stats for NYC

with similarly mild Decembers. The good news is that we avoided the T and 0 list with NYC at 0.4

and another opportunity for snow on Saturday.

2012....0.4..so far

2011....0

2006...0

2001...T

1999...T

1998...2.0

1996...T

1994...T

1990...7.2

1984...5.5

1982...3.0

1979...3.5

1971...T

1965...T

1957...8.7

1956...0.9

1923...1.5

1891...T

1889...0

as of yesterday NYC is averaging 43.1...If it averages 30 for the next four days the average will be close to 41.1...Not in the top ten warmest but in the top 15...The 1998 event came just in time for Christmas...The 1990 storm was gone in two days...Same goes for 1984...Both post Christmas...1982 was a powder event and so was 1979...Both storms tracked to far south and east...1957 had an early Dec. 8" event and another light event a few days later...Then the second half of Dec. was mild...1956 and 1923 are to long ago for even me to remember...

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as of yesterday NYC is averaging 43.1...If it averages 30 for the next four days the average will be close to 41.1...Not in the top ten warmest but in the top 15...The 1998 event came just in time for Christmas...The 1990 storm was gone in two days...Same goes for 1984...Both post Christmas...1982 was a powder event and so was 1979...Both storms tracked to far south and east...1957 had an early Dec. 8" event and another light event a few days later...Then the second half of Dec. was mild...1956 and 1923 are to long ago for even me to remember...

The lighter snowfall at Central Park this month wound up matching many of the warmer Decembers

that we have seen. I agree with you that the Park did better than a T yesterday, but it looks like

the last 4+ snow event during a warm December was 12-28-90.

We'll how close to the record warm minimum we finish this month.

From Uncle's stats....

Warmest monthly min...

26 in 1974

25 in 1984

24 in 1908

23 in 1923

22 in 1907

22 in 1918

22 in 2011

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The lighter snowfall at Central Park this month wound up matching many of the warmer Decembers

that we have seen. I agree with you that the Park did better than a T yesterday, but it looks like

the last 4+ snow event during a warm December was 12-28-90.

We'll how close to the record warm minimum we finish this month.

From Uncle's stats....

Warmest monthly min...

26 in 1974

25 in 1984

24 in 1908

23 in 1923

22 in 1907

22 in 1918

22 in 2011

Looks like we'll blow that record out of the water. Park only got down to 28F, which we've hit 3 times now this month (all in the past 7 days). We've only been below 30 four times and 32 or below 8 times (almost all in the last week). That's got to be some kind of record.

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Looks like we'll blow that record out of the water. Park only got down to 28F, which we've hit 3 times now this month (all in the past 7 days). We've only been below 30 four times and 32 or below 8 times (almost all in the last week). That's got to be some kind of record.

Yeah, the model forecasts were much too warm right up until yesterday. I though that we would at

least be able to get down to the mid 20's, but the weather had other plans. Even at my station here

in Western Nassau, my low for the month was only 28.4 degrees.

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Only one month this year (Jan) had a temperature below 20F. That is freaking ridiculous.

the minimums are going up on average...This is the second month this year with the highest minimum record...

monthly and annual temperature extremes for Central Park...

............January...February.....March.......April..........May........June........July......August....September October November December Annual

year.....max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min...max/min

2000....64 03.......64 19.......69 22......75 30......93 46......92 49.......89 58......90 57......84 43.......79 36........67 23........62 14......93 03

2001....54 18.......61 16.......57 24......87 34......92 43......91 50.......94 56....103 63......86 50.......81 37........75 34........71 20....103 16

2002....69 21.......63 19.......72 19......96 30......86 41......92 53.......96 51......98 60......91 54.......84 36........68 24........60 19......98 19

2003....50 07.......50 08.......69 11......88 30......79 45......93 50.......94 63......91 61......80 50.......77 36........79 29........58 21......94 07

2004....58 01.......59 15.......70 24......85 29......87 42......91 56.......87 63......90 58......87 51.......75 44........68 29........59 11......91 01

2005....66 05.......56 16.......63 16......87 37......79 41......93 54.......97 62......99 65......92 50.......80 39........72 22........55 14......99 05

2006....64 16.......62 15.......74 22......83 33......88 45......91 52.......95 61......97 60......83 49.......79 37........69 35........70 18......97 15

2007....72 09.......49 08.......78 11......86 30......91 44......91 54.......92 57......92 56......88 50.......87 38........66 26........61 20......92 08

2008....64 12.......68 10.......63 27......84 33......83 44......96 57.......96 66......90 58......90 51.......75 41........67 23........67 13......96 10

2009....47 06.......65 12.......70 12......92 34......86 43......84 50.......86 58......92 62......84 49.......74 37........69 35........66 16......92 06

2010....57 13.......46 17.......74 29......92 40......92 41......93 57.....103 61......96 61......96 54.......75 42........65 34........60 19....103 13

2011....53 06.......67 15.......77 20......83 35......89 46......95 56.....104 63......94 59......86 51.......84 33........70 36........62 22....104 06

2012....62 13.......62 20.......78 25......88 38......89 49......94 51.....100 61......91 61......91 53.......78 38........66 31........62 28....100 13

ave......57 08.......57 09.......68 17......81 30......88 42......93 52.......95 59......93 57......89 47.......80 37........70 26........69 13....

record..72 25.......75 22.......86 33......96 42......99 49.....101 58.....106 65....104 65....102 57.......94 45........84 36........75 28....106 19

record..41 -6........41 -15......49 03......67 12......75 32......81 44.......86 52......83 50......79 39.......66 28........60 05........47 -13.....90 -15

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