bluewave Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The models are indicating that much above normal temperatures will be centered next week over the the Midwest into the Great Lakes. There were at least 12 years since 1950 that featured this type well above temperatures during the first week of December centered near those regions. Week one December Composite of 12 years When the whole month was averaged out, the NYC metro area finished December with above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The models are indicating that much above normal temperatures will be centered next week over the the Midwest into the Great Lakes. There were at least 12 years since 1950 that featured this type well above temperatures during the first week of December centered near those regions. Week one December Composite of 12 years When the whole month was averaged out, the NYC metro area finished December with above normal temperatures. 1951 had two days in the low 60's on 12/7 and 8th..Then it got cold with a sloppy snow event with near record cold mid month... 1970 had two days in the 60's on the 2nd and 3rd...It ended up a cold month with a snowstorm on New Years day... 1960 had two days in the 60's on the 5th and 6th...It had a blizzard on the 12th with record cold... 1966 had two days in the 60's on the 8th and 9th...It got a snowstorm Christmas Eve... 1980 was 63 on the 8th...-1 on the 25th... 2009 was 66 on the 3rd...2008 was 65 on the 10th...Both years had a snowstorm on the 19th... This year could end up similar I hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 EURO has the NAO tanking after the 6th - warmup should only last the first week because day 10 on the Euro look whats coming our way http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 EURO has the NAO tanking after the 6th - warmup should only last the first week because day 10 on the Euro look whats coming our way http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS240.gif the AO is tanking now...How low can it go?... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 There will be cold shots. But as the GOA low remains and no strong/west-based -NAO, they will be fairly transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 There were 15 different years that came on 500mb analogs for Day+8 and Day +11 GFS superensembles today. I looked back on those years for Central Park in December. The average departure for all those 15 years combined for December in Central Park was +2.4. 9 out of 15 years had above average temperatures for December. Including 6 that were average above from +3.0 to +6.1. 11 out the 15 years also had snowfalls that were below average for December. 7 of them reported less than 1.0" for December. So based on these analogs of the GFS superensemble forecasts today, odds favor above average temperature and below average snowfall for Central Park in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Excellent breakdown of the facts. Odds are December will not produce the ideal scenario for us snow lovers. Is there any way we can roll forward into January to see what happened then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Have we ever had an above average snowfall for winter as a whole when December is below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Have we ever had an above average snowfall for winter as a whole when December is below normal? December 1977? December 1978? I'm not sure but I think....I'm sure there were others. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 So much for everyone barking about an exciting December. Now it'll just be a torch fest. For me that just equals a terrible winter when December is well above normal with little to no snowfall, but of course we still have to see how the entire month unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 As I stated early in the month, cold, snowy Novembers are almost never a good sign if you want a cold and snow December. I think we may be able to salvage the last 10 days of Dec. So much for everyone barking about an exciting December. Now it'll just be a torch fest. For me that just equals a terrible winter when December is well above normal with little to no snowfall, but of course we still have to see how the entire month unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 As I stated early in the month, cold, snowy Novembers are almost never a good sign if you want a cold and snow December. I think we may be able to salvage the last 10 days of Dec. What have winters been like when we changed to cold during the month, even if above average overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The gfs doesn't look that horrendous after this upcoming 3 day torch, it looks like we'll see oscillating shots of cold and milder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 1951 had two days in the low 60's on 12/7 and 8th..Then it got cold with a sloppy snow event with near record cold mid month... 1970 had two days in the 60's on the 2nd and 3rd...It ended up a cold month with a snowstorm on New Years day... 1960 had two days in the 60's on the 5th and 6th...It had a blizzard on the 12th with record cold... 1966 had two days in the 60's on the 8th and 9th...It got a snowstorm Christmas Eve... 1980 was 63 on the 8th...-1 on the 25th... 2009 was 66 on the 3rd...2008 was 65 on the 10th...Both years had a snowstorm on the 19th... This year could end up similar I hope... 10 out of the 12 analog Decembers finished with a positive temperature departure in NYC. 1951...+3.8 1953...+5.4 1956...+5.0 1961...-0.4 1962...-4.4 1973...+3.1 1982...+7.3 1993...+0.7 1994....+5.6 1998....+6.6 1999....+3.4 2001....+7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 As I stated early in the month, cold, snowy Novembers are almost never a good sign if you want a cold and snow December. I think we may be able to salvage the last 10 days of Dec. That's what a lot of people have been saying. The 2nd half of December might be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We only need a 4 or 5 incher incher to make December have normal snowfall, but usually if we have to scrape a 4 incher so we can hope to get to normal snowfall the winter itself sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We only need a 4 or 5 incher incher to make December have normal snowfall, but usually if we have to scrape a 4 incher so we can hope to get to normal snowfall the winter itself sucks. Agreed. Stats show that most winters with 3" or less of snow in December featured below avg snow winters. We'd like to pencil in at least one mdt (3-6") event this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 10 out of the 12 analog Decembers finished with a positive temperature departure in NYC. 1951...+3.8 1953...+5.4 1956...+5.0 1961...-0.4 1962...-4.4 1973...+3.1 1982...+7.3 1993...+0.7 1994....+5.6 1998....+6.6 1999....+3.4 2001....+7.5 1951 had a big warm period the first ten days of December...The AO was very positive that December...Not this year though...It could turn out different... dailies for Dec. 1-9, 1951... 1st...60 40... 2nd...58 44 3rd...51 38... 4th...60 41... 5th...60 53... 6th...63 51... 7th...64 53... 8th...64 52... 9th...57 44... The 15th had a storm that dropped 3.3" of slop...After that a cold wave with single digits on the 17th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Agreed. Stats show that most winters with 3" or less of snow in December featured below avg snow winters. We'd like to pencil in at least one mdt (3-6") event this month. I don't disagree. In the last 50 years, there were only 4 Central Park winters, that saw big comeback, after seeing 3.0" or less of snow in December. 1978-79 and 1982-83 were more big comebacks in February alone : Nov...Dec...Jan..Feb...Mar...Apr...Total 1977-78 0.2...0.4.. 20.3 23.0... 6.8...T...50.7 1978-79 2.2 ... 0.5... 6.6.. 20.1... T...T...29.4 1982-83 0.0... 3.0... 1.9...21.5..T...0.8...27.2 2004-05 T...3.0...15.3...15.8 ...6.9...0... 41.0 However, there were about a dozen or so more, further back, that saw pretty decent or big comebacks. These are top five I found for Central Park. Also 1882 and 1892 had significant snowfall in November. But it doesn't necessarily mean anything: Nov...Dec... Jan..Feb...Mar...Apr...Total 1906-07 1.0... 0.3...11.0...21.8...13.3...5.8...53.2 1882-83 14.0...T ...9.4...10.1...10.0...0.5...44.0 1892-93 6.3... 3.0...16.0...17.8...6.1...0.5... 49.7 1913-14 T... 0.3... 1.3...17.4... 21.5...T...40.5 1940-41 2.2...3.0...9.2...5.4...19.2...0... 39.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 The first week was similar to the week 1 analog composite in that the greatest positive temperature departures showed up to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The first week was similar to the week 1 analog composite in that the greatest positive temperature departures showed up to our west. great job bluewave...When I was growing up and looking at NYC's weather records I wondered how the city could get snow in early November but have a mild and snowless winter overall...(1953-54)...We are on the same track so far...Hopefully it derails...The AO is at its lowest point this morning...It's near -3.500...This still gives me some hope for a good ending to this month...If it gets to -4.000 or it would fall into this category of analogs with similar mei/oni enso and a day with the AO at least -4.000 at some point... 1958-59... 1966-67... 1976-77... 1977-78... 1978-79... 1980-81... 2003-04... 2004-05... Not a bad set of analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Have we ever had an above average snowfall for winter as a whole when December is below normal? December 1977? December 1978? I'm not sure but I think....I'm sure there were others. WX/PT 2004-5 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 so far I think the best analog so far for NYC is 1953-54...1951 and 1952 not far behind...1953 had an early November snowstorm...A mild and snowless December...Cold and snowy January...Warm February...The three years combined have some similarities with 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 2004-5 I think. i posted this in a different thread... Dec 1977 and 2004 are the only Decembers since 1950 that NYC recorded less than 3" and finished with OVER 40" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 i posted this in a different thread... Dec 1977 and 2004 are the only Decembers since 1950 that NYC recorded less than 3" and finished with OVER 40" for the season. Isn't normal in NYC in the 20's? Why did you look for only seasons which hit over 40? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Running at +5.5 in NYC with only two negative departure days this month. So far the lowest temperature of the month is 29 degrees. It's looking like another very warm monthly min for December in the 20's. From Uncle's stats.... Warmest monthly min... 26 in 1974 25 in 1984 24 in 1908 23 in 1923 22 in 1907 22 in 1918 22 in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Running at +5.5 in NYC with only two negative departure days this month. So far the lowest temperature of the month is 29 degrees. It's looking like another very warm monthly min for December in the 20's. From Uncle's stats.... Warmest monthly min... 26 in 1974 25 in 1984 24 in 1908 23 in 1923 22 in 1907 22 in 1918 22 in 2011 I think we should crush the 29 at the end of the month after the 28th. Regardless if the eastward model trend continues on the storm, the storm that does occur will be the first one of the year that has some solid cold air to tap into on its backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Running at +5.5 in NYC with only two negative departure days this month. So far the lowest temperature of the month is 29 degrees. It's looking like another very warm monthly min for December in the 20's. From Uncle's stats.... Warmest monthly min... 26 in 1974 25 in 1984 24 in 1908 23 in 1923 22 in 1907 22 in 1918 22 in 2011 last year we hit 22 on the 18th...Dec. 2011 had 10 days with a minimum 32 or below...Way below average...This year we have one...three in November adds up to four...Last year we had 37 days...10 below the old record of 47 set in 2001-02...Lets hope the models are correct and the tide will turn...The AO is sinking again...It's been negative all month with nothing to show for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think we should crush the 29 at the end of the month after the 28th. Regardless if the eastward model trend continues on the storm, the storm that does occur will be the first one of the year that has some solid cold air to tap into on its backside. Yeah, I think that we should drop below that 29 before the end of the month with the shot of colder air. But I believe that another finish with the low for the month in 20's is looking good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 With today's warm morning, should get Central Park to average fifty degrees for maximum temperatures for the first three weeks of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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