andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I'm stoked to get this soaking rain mid week too. I don't even care that we'll be in the 40's. Setting up antecedent BL moisture leading into the weekend and early next week. 12z Euro is stranding this thing in the SW and really amplifies the HP north of the border by 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 12z Euro is stranding this thing in the SW and really amplifies the HP north of the border by 192. Common Euro bias... somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Common Euro bias... somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies the answer. Yes, this is along the lines of what I was thinking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Common Euro bias... somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies the answer. Somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies a significant severe weather outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies a significant severe weather outbreak Indeed... I'm getting excited about the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Common Euro bias... somewhere between the Euro and GFS lies the answer. Thought I saw a met say they fixed that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Large, photogenic tornado ongoing in Caprock Canyons, as streamed by David Drummond. Nearest ob is 78/52. Also, I can't chase next week, so I'll try to refrain from commenting since it'll be tough to remain unbiased. Gonna be one of those months, I guess. EDIT: screencap from FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 maybe the panhandle will become legit again this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Thought I saw a met say they fixed that? Maybe it did... I'm not the most up-to-date when it comes to the Euro changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 maybe the panhandle will become legit again this yr Their downfall for the past couple years has consistently been high T/Td spreads whenever the dryline holds back that far, and today was no exception. I'm honestly stumped on this one -- very Campo-esque. Telling that SPC chose 10% tornado probs on their SVR watch, even though 20% is permissible without going to a TOR watch (and quite common for SVR, actually). I've definitely seen cases where magic happens on the tongue of the instability axis like this, but typically it's more in the evening/overnight and with very low LCLs. EDIT: I should've been using KLBB instead of KAMA. Now that I load the KLBB loop, it appears that after the three supercells were established in an east-west line, the middle one barfed out an extensive outflow boundary which the westernmost storm then encountered as it turned ESE. Mesoscale accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Wow, very nice cone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 maybe the panhandle will become legit again this yr Yeah that bias, according to dtk (and from my own experience watching intermountain W ejections), has not been an issue for nearly a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Their downfall for the past couple years has consistently been high T/Td spreads whenever the dryline holds back that far, and today was no exception. I'm honestly stumped on this one -- very Campo-esque. Telling that SPC chose 10% tornado probs on their SVR watch, even though 20% is permissible without going to a TOR watch (and quite common for SVR, actually). I've definitely seen cases where magic happens on the tongue of the instability axis like this, but typically it's more in the evening/overnight and with very low LCLs. sbcp.gif makes sense. t/td spread certainly high tho I see a boundary in the area too which probably helped spin it up at least. does that convergence also cause localized better spreads? you can certainly get away with more at 3,000+ feet. looks like a classic tall higher elevation tornado.. at least it gives the 'pro' chasers reason to say this year will overperform consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 makes sense. t/td spread certainly high tho I see a boundary in the area too which probably helped spin it up at least. does that convergence also cause localized better spreads? you can certainly get away with more at 3,000+ feet. looks like a classic tall higher elevation tornado.. at least it gives the 'pro' chasers reason to say this year will overperform consistently. Agreed on the boundary... just edited my post but you beat me to it by half a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Agreed on the boundary... just edited my post but you beat me to it by half a minute. #neverstopchasing #livestobesaved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 #neverstopchasing #livestobesaved lol #dominating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 lol #dominating Hey if you can do it more power to you. More often than not it doesn't work out if that's your philosophy prob but there are nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Hey if you can do it more power to you. More often than not it doesn't work out if that's your philosophy prob but there are nice surprises. Yeah, essentially when you start expecting that it becomes boring when it more often then not, doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 not bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Caprock magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 new vid from sat night in OK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 not bad.. 300119_10151502222414654_409788735_n.jpg Wait until you see the video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Some interesting Plains days/periods popping up on the 6-10 day CPC analog composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 While it's nice to see the models showing potential for next week, it's hard to really get excited given how terrible the models have been this season in handling troughs/waves this far out. As is right now though it's a solid multi-day period. *Note: This is coming from someone biased because he won't be able to chase anything in the Mon-Thur timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 00z GFS having none of the 18z verbatim...this is pretty synoptically textbook at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 00z GFS having none of the 18z verbatim...this is pretty synoptically textbook at H5. I haven't looked at the winds yet but the CAPE goes nowhere Monday night. Yuck. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Very nice tornado Near Silverton, TX! The last two tornado events has questioned me how much moisture does a tornado really need? 3/29/13 tornado in NE with dewpoints only upper 30s, near 40, and today with dewpoints in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 00z Euro trending in a much more interesting direction on Monday in the Plains, with a substantially broader upper trough/closed low than previous runs and a 40-50 kt LLJ feeding northward through TX/OK/KS, in addition to a smaller scale shortwave rotating through the larger scale trough. The trough still dives well south after that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0330 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013 ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MON/D7... DESPITE SHORT TERM DISCREPANCIES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A WRN TROUGH...AND EJECTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON MON/D7. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS INTO OK BY MON...SUGGESTING AN UNBROKEN FETCH FROM THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF MIXES DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S. REGARDLESS...IF THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH HOLDS TRUE...A DRYLINE SUPERCELL EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAGNITUDE AS STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BOTH FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN MOISTURE QUALITY QUESTIONS...TIMING OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY SMALL THREAT AREA...NO AREA WILL BE OUTLINED AT THIS TIME. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TUE/D8... MODELS AGREE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY AS FAR N AS ERN OK/AR BY TUE. WHILE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PREDICTABILITY DECREASES ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISMS. THE GFS SHOWS A FEATURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH DIGGING SWD OVER THE SWRN CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Their downfall for the past couple years has consistently been high T/Td spreads whenever the dryline holds back that far, and today was no exception. I'm honestly stumped on this one -- very Campo-esque. Telling that SPC chose 10% tornado probs on their SVR watch, even though 20% is permissible without going to a TOR watch (and quite common for SVR, actually). I've definitely seen cases where magic happens on the tongue of the instability axis like this, but typically it's more in the evening/overnight and with very low LCLs. EDIT: I should've been using KLBB instead of KAMA. Now that I load the KLBB loop, it appears that after the three supercells were established in an east-west line, the middle one barfed out an extensive outflow boundary which the westernmost storm then encountered as it turned ESE. Mesoscale accident. sbcp.gif When were you talking about SPC going a 10% tor on severe watch...in past events? Sounded like you meant yesterday (the 1st)...but they only went 2% tor risk for yesterday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.