Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2013 Share Posted March 27, 2013 Can't help but lol at chasers that keep getting getting caught up in random runs of the GFS that are showing nonsense consistent mild temps/severe chances in the med/long range. Whether they say they believe it or not, there's no point in having a discussion on some nonsense threat 7 days out, which is unlikely to happen in this pattern. More attention needs to be paid towards the teleconnections and how terrible the GFS has been on projecting them. As I have been mentioning a bit elsewhere for the past several weeks, the writing has been on the wall that things wouldn't come together until early-April at the earliest. ...And it's now obvious that you can kick that back to around mid-April. I haven't chased since last April 14th...and expect to pass that date this year before my first chase...unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Can't help but lol at chasers that keep getting getting caught up in random runs of the GFS that are showing nonsense consistent mild temps/severe chances in the med/long range. Whether they say they believe it or not, there's no point in having a discussion on some nonsense threat 7 days out, which is unlikely to happen in this pattern. More attention needs to be paid towards the teleconnections and how terrible the GFS has been on projecting them. As I have been mentioning a bit elsewhere for the past several weeks, the writing has been on the wall that things wouldn't come together until early-April at the earliest. ...And it's now obvious that you can kick that back to around mid-April. I haven't chased since last April 14th...and expect to pass that date this year before my first chase...unfortunately. For some I guess it's just something to talk about. I'm kind of intriqued by your phrase "mild temps/severe chances". For Monday in west central Texas (at least in our CWA) we're forecasting pre-frontal conditions of 80-84 temps and 57-61 dews...with a possible triple point setup depending on frontal timing. Instability progs are decent to good too...but if it was 3 days out I'd be more optimistic about it. Hopefully the pattern changes where you can chase...I've been on 3 chases down here out of the 7 events so far (got called into the forecast office to work the others). I'm not sure what area you were referring to though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Whenever I need my svr wx fix I go back and read the April 27 2011 thread on the Dixie superoutbreak particularly from page 13 on or go to the thread on the Joplin tornado with JoMo's first hand experience. Both are absolutely bone chilling and classic for the archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Yeah, as well as the 5/24/11 and 4/16/11 (SE board) threads and some of the old ones back on Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Thanks Indystorm. Yeah, it looked good on a lot of model runs, even the Euro had something going on for several model runs in a row, then BOOM, northern stream crusher with cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Well the 12z Euro was indicating something brewing in the E Pacific by the end of the run...although whether stuff like this is any better than the GFS' schizophrenic tendencies as of late is up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 By the way, I believe NWS Jackson put this together using some of the new features on the SPC website...hello Dixie Alley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Take the anomalous 2011 out of that and what do you have though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 For some I guess it's just something to talk about. I'm kind of intriqued by your phrase "mild temps/severe chances". For Monday in west central Texas (at least in our CWA) we're forecasting pre-frontal conditions of 80-84 temps and 57-61 dews...with a possible triple point setup depending on frontal timing. Instability progs are decent to good too...but if it was 3 days out I'd be more optimistic about it. Hopefully the pattern changes where you can chase...I've been on 3 chases down here out of the 7 events so far (got called into the forecast office to work the others). I'm not sure what area you were referring to though. Regarding the "mild temps/severe chances", I mean sustained chances you start to see around this time of year (Excluding your area temp wise). As for chasing, many have yet to venture out. Taking into account there probably won't be any decent activity through the 7th, it's a fairly slow start to the season. Hopefully things will get going around/after mid-month, just as they did after the slow start in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Take the anomalous 2011 out of that and what do you have though? 4/3/74, 5/27/73, 2/21/71, 4/24/10, 3/3/66, among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Take the anomalous 2011 out of that and what do you have though? Not only that, but slipping in the "long-track" requirement seems like spin worthy of a politician. I mean, if that's really what you're interested in, it is what it is -- and clearly Dixie Alley comes out on top. But it's well-known that average storm motion is significantly faster in the Southeast than in the Plains on tornado days. So if you were to compare tornadoes with a threshold on temporal duration rather than track length, I guarantee the scales would start to tip back. Not trying to attack anyone; like I said, it is what it is. I've just grown so tired over the years of incessant "OMGZ the alley is shifting east forever!!" commentary. I'm sure NWS JAN fully understands the context of their graphic, but some people who see it probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Not only that, but slipping in the "long-track" requirement seems like spin worthy of a politician. I mean, if that's really what you're interested in, it is what it is -- and clearly Dixie Alley comes out on top. But it's well-known that average storm motion is significantly faster in the Southeast than in the Plains on tornado days. So if you were to compare tornadoes with a threshold on temporal duration rather than track length, I guarantee the scales would start to tip back. Not trying to attack anyone; like I said, it is what it is. I've just grown so tired over the years of incessant "OMGZ the alley is shifting east forever!!" commentary. I'm sure NWS JAN fully understands the context of their graphic, but some people who see it probably won't. I think the point was more geared towards the fact that long-tracked tornadoes spend more distance on the ground and thus have a higher likelihood of impacting property and multiple towns along the path, I don't think anyone was implying that the "alley was shifting east forever", but you can't deny that Dixie Alley has a higher concentration of fatalities due to a number of factors (enhanced support of long-tracked tornadoes, poor terrain, trees, higher population density, etc.) Just because a tornado spends a long time on the ground does not mean it will impact a larger spatial area (if it has a slow storm motion, ala Jarrell or Greensburg), but if you combine long-duration and long-tracked (which is essentially a given when a tornado spends 50+ miles on the ground, regardless of storm motion), it is going to have a higher likelihood of impacting a population center, regardless of where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Although the Alabama/Mississippi percentage is impressive, I think Nebraska impresses me with the 3 violent 100+ mile track tornadoes. The fast storm motions in the South are asking for long track tornadoes, but when I think of Nebraska, I think of much slower motions leading to a tornado family instead of a single 100+ mile path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 By the way, I believe NWS Jackson put this together using some of the new features on the SPC website...hello Dixie Alley... It's a nice map, but I'm not sure how accurate this is given that many supposed long-track tornadoes before the 90's were actually tornado families. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 It's a nice map, but I'm not sure how accurate this is given that many supposed long-track tornadoes before the 90's were actually tornado families. Well then, long tracked supercells producing violent tornado tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I think the point was more geared towards the fact that long-tracked tornadoes spend more distance on the ground and thus have a higher likelihood of impacting property and multiple towns along the path, I don't think anyone was implying that the "alley was shifting east forever", but you can't deny that Dixie Alley has a higher concentration of fatalities due to a number of factors (enhanced support of long-tracked tornadoes, poor terrain, trees, higher population density, etc.) Just because a tornado spends a long time on the ground does not mean it will impact a larger spatial area (if it has a slow storm motion, ala Jarrell or Greensburg), but if you combine long-duration and long-tracked (which is essentially a given when a tornado spends 50+ miles on the ground, regardless of storm motion), it is going to have a higher likelihood of impacting a population center, regardless of where it is. True; long tracks would be correlated with higher human impacts. Then again, almost every attribute of Southeast tornadoes -- from population density and proportion of mobile homes to visibility and diurnal timing -- favors higher human impacts to begin with. That region is and always will be the most dangerous in the U.S. for a major outbreak, among regions where outbreaks are climatologically expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 A tornado warned supercell is tracking over North Platte NE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 3 tornado reports out of it so far, it's right on the southern end of the leeside cyclogenesis in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Both the Euro and GFS are now holding out hopes for a pattern change for second week of April in the Plains and Midwest that could usher in our first genuine prospects for svr weather season to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Very large upper level trough evolving in the west on the 12z Euro towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2013 Share Posted March 30, 2013 Second year in a row... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013 /1012 AM MDT SAT MAR 30 2013/...FIRST TORNADO CONFIRMED IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...MARCH 29TH...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN KEITHCOUNTY AND INTENSIFIED WHILE MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL LINCOLNCOUNTY. THE STORM PRODUCED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...OR 1.75INCHES AND THE FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON IN WESTERN NEBRASKA.THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LINCOLNCOUNTY TO PRODUCE A WEAK (EF-0) TORNADO. AT 602 PM CDT...THE WEAKTORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES SOUTH OF THESUTHERLAND GERALD GENTLEMAN STATION...TO THE SOUTH OF SUTHERLAND OVER AHARVESTED CROP FIELD. NO DAMAGE WAS INITIALLY REPORTED OR LATERFOUND BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. ADDITIONAL DETAILS FOR THE TORNADOINCLUDES:TORNADO:RATED: EF-0 TORNADOPATH LENGTH: .25 MILEPATH WIDTH: 25 YARDSINJURIES: 0DAMAGE: NONEESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED: 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Models still with a major upper trough coming ashore towards next weekend, with some pretty decent ensemble support, and a rather decent signal for a torch of sorts out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Still well out there, but we have already the mention of dryline supercells with the latest D4-8. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS - D8... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AFTER ABOUT D7 WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DRYLINE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM KS INTO OK AND TX. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS NRN OK BY 00Z ON THE 9TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Watching April 8th closely. Both GFS and Euro depiction is quite nice right now. A few GFS runs have had the appearance of a significant outbreak day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Watching April 8th closely. Both GFS and Euro depiction is quite nice right now. A few GFS runs have had the appearance of a significant outbreak day Agree, I have been watching this one for a while and the run to run consistency of the GFS/Euro has been pretty outstanding. The signal toward at the very least a decent potential has been shown for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The 12z GFS is much more progressive than previous runs and suggests this threat may extend significantly further east. Also building 2000-4000 J/kg of CAPE over TX and OK on the 8th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Extended range looks much better...starting to look typical spring over the lower 48 with deep southeasterlies across the GOM as we finally lose the persistent troughing over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The 12z GFS is much more progressive than previous runs and suggests this threat may extend significantly further east. Also building 2000-4000 J/kg of CAPE over TX and OK on the 8th... Certainly the 8th will be one to watch. Nice dry line bulge depicted on the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 This is a pretty noteworthy upper level pattern depicted in the West on the 12z GFS as the trough develops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I'm stoked to get this soaking rain mid week too. I don't even care that we'll be in the 40's. Setting up antecedent BL moisture leading into the weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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