Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[andyhb]

The road ahead looks like a long stretch of boring, but there's hope that the Gulf won't get wiped again for awhile after tomorrow. Maybe by the last 10 days of the month we'll see another trough with better moisture.

 

Yeah, I'm thinking there could be a decent shot of something interesting with whatever comes out of the West next, considering the ridge keeping the eastern troughing largely away from the Gulf.

[Ed Lizard]

OT- Brett or Jorge would win, eventually, except maybe not because of being in the wrong subforum.

 

There needs to be an anti-weenie of the year not open to staff and red taggers, IMHO.

 

Donald Sutherland would be my nominee of a man who would earn a lifetime tag for being the years winner.  What color, I don't know. 

[brettjrob]

Big battle shaping up in the D7-10 period. GFS insists on transitioning to western troughing by next weekend, with strong support from its own ensembles. Euro has been equally adamant that a trough will dig into the east coast around the same timeframe, pumping a western ridge. Its ensembles are similar, as well. Hopefully the Euro crashes and burns as badly as it did with this weekend's storm at this range.

[baroclinic_instability]

Big battle shaping up in the D7-10 period. GFS insists on transitioning to western troughing by next weekend, with strong support from its own ensembles. Euro has been equally adamant that a trough will dig into the east coast around the same timeframe, pumping a western ridge. Its ensembles are similar, as well. Hopefully the Euro crashes and burns as badly as it did with this weekend's storm at this range.

As long as the -NAO block remains, I guess I am not too excited as GOM trajectories will be from the S or even SSW. One can hope for some good localized dryline activity, but nothing substantial for the time being. of course I am back to my normal pessimistic mode. 

[brettjrob]

As long as the -NAO block remains, I guess I am not too excited as GOM trajectories will be from the S or even SSW. One can hope for some good localized dryline activity, but nothing substantial for the time being. of course I am back to my normal pessimistic mode. 

 

Yeah, I noticed that, too. I definitely don't foresee a climo-defying outbreak scenario anytime over the next two weeks, regardless of your model of choice. Still, any dryline convection and/or additional drought relief would be much preferred over more northwest flow.

[OKpowdah]

At least as we shift the eastern US trough offshore, and develop more of a trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS, that will shift the recurring surface high, that kept shutting down the GoM, to the northeast, and open up longer duration moisture return periods

[Srain]

At least as we shift the eastern US trough offshore, and develop more of a trough-ridge pattern across the CONUS, that will shift the recurring surface high, that kept shutting down the GoM, to the northeast, and open up longer duration moisture return periods

The 00Z suite of ensembles are a bit encouraging for the day 6-10 time frame suggesting we rid this persistent NW Continental flow as a Western trough becomes established and the NW Gulf opens up for a longer period.

 

 

 

 

[patrick7032]

Here are a couple radar images from the tornadic supercell near Junction Saturday night...and a picture which was posted on the NWS San Angelo Facebook page by storm chaser Josh Yurkiewicz north of Junction. The LSR  is also listed below.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX252 AM CST MON MAR 11 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....             ..REMARKS..0445 PM     HAIL             2 E THRIFTY             31.81N  99.10W03/09/2013  E1.25 INCH       BROWN              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE0446 PM     HAIL             8 ESE CROSS CUT         31.99N  99.01W03/09/2013  E1.50 INCH       BROWN              TX   PUBLIC            PEA SIZE HAIL...WITH SOME HAILSTONES TO HALF DOLLAR            SIZE...OCCURRED OVER A 30 MIN DURATION. HAIL ACCUMULATED            TO A 4 INCH DEPTH.0508 PM     HAIL             15 NW BROWNWOOD         31.86N  99.17W03/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0510 PM     HAIL             12 NW BROWNWOOD         31.83N  99.14W03/09/2013  E1.75 INCH       BROWN              TX   PUBLIC0520 PM     HAIL             7 SW MAY                31.91N  99.00W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              TX   PUBLIC0615 PM     HAIL             3 NW BRADY              31.17N  99.37W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC0618 PM     HAIL             7 S EDEN                31.11N  99.84W03/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       CONCHO             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0621 PM     HAIL             6 W BRADY               31.13N  99.44W03/09/2013  E0.88 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0625 PM     HAIL             12 NE BRADY             31.26N  99.19W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 NE BRADY             31.26N  99.19W03/09/2013  E60 MPH          MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC0640 PM     HAIL             1 N JUNCTION            30.50N  99.77W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC0650 PM     HAIL             1 N JUNCTION            30.50N  99.77W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC0717 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N  99.33W03/09/2013  E1.25 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0719 PM     HAIL             5 W BRADY               31.13N  99.42W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0720 PM     HAIL             3 NNE BRADY             31.18N  99.32W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   AWOS0720 PM     HAIL             1 SW BRADY              31.12N  99.35W03/09/2013  M1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC0721 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N  99.33W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   AMATEUR RADIO0730 PM     HAIL             3 S LONDON              30.63N  99.58W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC0733 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 WSW LONDON            30.63N  99.70W03/09/2013                   KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC            A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 725 AND 730 PM.0735 PM     HAIL             16 SW MASON             30.58N  99.42W03/09/2013  E1.75 INCH       MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0735 PM     HAIL             3 SSE BRADY             31.09N  99.32W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   PUBLIC0741 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N  99.33W03/09/2013  E0.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0759 PM     HAIL             7 SW MASON              30.68N  99.31W03/09/2013  E2.00 INCH       MASON              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER            HAIL A LITTLE LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS.0800 PM     HAIL             10 NE SAN SABA          31.30N  98.60W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       SAN SABA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0813 PM     HAIL             25 W SAN SABA           31.19N  99.14W03/09/2013  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0830 PM     HAIL             JUNCTION                30.49N  99.77W03/09/2013  E1.75 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   AMATEUR RADIO0830 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NE ERNA               30.76N  99.47W03/09/2013                   MASON              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE            WALL CLOUD WAS ALSO OBSERVED.0845 PM     HAIL             18 SW MASON             30.56N  99.44W03/09/2013  E1.50 INCH       MASON              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT0900 PM     HAIL             JUNCTION                30.49N  99.77W03/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       KIMBLE             TX   PUBLIC&&EVENT NUMBER SJT1300089 SJT1300106 SJT1300083 SJT1300086 SJT1300084SJT1300087 SJT1300092 SJT1300088 SJT1300090 SJT1300091 SJT1300109SJT1300110 SJT1300093 SJT1300096 SJT1300094 SJT1300105 SJT1300095SJT1300098 SJT1300107 SJT1300102 SJT1300111 SJT1300097 SJT1300099SJT1300100 SJT1300101 SJT1300103 SJT1300108 SJT1300104 SJT1300112$JOHNSON

[brettjrob]

Boy, the medium range couldn't look much bleaker. Nothing of substance on the horizon, and hints of an unseasonably cold airmass invading much of the central/eastern CONUS around D7-9. Hopefully we're just "getting it out of the way" before May and June.

 

EDIT: Significant winter storm on the 00z Euro for late next week OK/KS/MO.

[patrick7032]

Boy, the medium range couldn't look much bleaker. Nothing of substance on the horizon, and hints of an unseasonably cold airmass invading much of the central/eastern CONUS around D7-9. Hopefully we're just "getting it out of the way" before May and June.

 

EDIT: Significant winter storm on the 00z Euro for late next week OK/KS/MO.

Thursday has some potential in Texas. SPC hinted at that too.

[Srain]

^^

 

The much colder air diving S across the Plains may be a recipe for severe weather late Thursday into Friday.

 

The overnight guidance with the assistance of a Winter RECON mission across the NE Pacific continues to advertise a sharp cold front later next week as the Major Regional Headliner. The AO is forecast to drop to near record 6 standard deviations below normal along with a strong blocking West based NAO continuing and building E. Another issue is a PNA spike that tends to favor the solutions that the operational and ensemble guidance have been suggesting. Very chilly air will sink S into the Plains and reach the Texas Coast late next Friday into next weekend. Many locations may well flirt with record low temps as well as daily high minimums if the guidance is correct. As an example, IAH may flirt with 15-20 degrees below normal daytime maximums if the guidance verifies. A late winter/early Spring freeze may extend well S where warm temps and the Spring green up has began in earnest.

 

[andyhb]

Boy, the medium range couldn't look much bleaker. Nothing of substance on the horizon, and hints of an unseasonably cold airmass invading much of the central/eastern CONUS around D7-9. Hopefully we're just "getting it out of the way" before May and June.

EDIT: Significant winter storm on the 00z Euro for late next week OK/KS/MO.

Yeah this is a pretty ugly pattern that we are in heading into April.

[Chinook]

So, Baroclinic_Instability, the ECMWF always forecasts cyclogenesis too far south??? What about 3/22? The GFS had to give in to the ECMWF idea of OK/TX cyclone. I don't think that low will go to Nebraska now that the GFS has it near Dallas.

[baroclinic_instability]

So, Baroclinic_Instability, the ECMWF always forecasts cyclogenesis too far south??? What about 3/22? The GFS had to give in to the ECMWF idea of OK/TX cyclone. I don't think that low will go to Nebraska now that the GFS has it near Dallas.

When did I say the ECMWF always forecasts cyclogenesis too far S? 

[Chinook]

You said that one of the models (which one?) kicks the Colorado lows too far south in the Dakotas (when the tracks are near there.) You may have tried to explain your reasoning to the Dakotas and Minnesota people. Maybe I didn't even remember it right.

[baroclinic_instability]

You said that one of the models (which one?) kicks the Colorado lows too far south in the Dakotas (when the tracks are near there.) You may have tried to explain your reasoning to the Dakotas and Minnesota people. Maybe I didn't even remember it right.

I guess I don't remember that. One bias you will see with certain types of lee cyclogenesis is a an eejction too far north, but that is usually exhibited mostly by the vertical res limited NAM, and that is only under certain circumstances. 

[Chinook]

Baroclinic, what time did you post that in -your- time zone?

 

This is a pretty energetic system today- lots of wind warnings/advisories and lots of winter warnings/advisories/watches right now.

[OceanStWx]

 

 

 

Awesome addition to the SPC mesoanalysis pages that I just noticed today, not sure if it's been brought up in here yet. They now provide a climatology for lat/lon points (that you double click in the map to call up) base on the tornado environment browser (2003-2011). You can break the variables down by convective mode (supercell vs. QLCS), by statistical graphs, maps, or diurnal breakdown.

 

The work they've done in recent years is top notch. Should be a great tool for this season.

 

[Chinook]

Anybody seen much activity on Stormtrack.org in any recent years?  That forum used to be top-notch.

[brettjrob]

Anybody seen much activity on Stormtrack.org in any recent years?  That forum used to be top-notch.

 

Sad story there. When I first got into chasing circa 2006-2007, it was a great focus for discussion and quite active. I have fond memories of big setups where there'd be pages of model discussion days in advance. Then activity gradually dwindled over the years, basically coincident with Facebook taking over teh interwebz. For whatever reason, most of the old membership are apparently satisfied with disjointed, soundbyte-style social media posts and no longer feel compelled to visit.

 

I still check in fairly often, and there's a core group of maybe a couple dozen good posters who do the same. However, I find it's better for discussion of chasing-related issues (equipment, etc.) than real-time weather.

[andyhb]

Speaking of chasing, the 00z GFS raises some interest with some pretty decent looking wind profiles and plentiful instability east of the dryline on Friday in Texas (specifically Central/Eastern regions). Although, convective initiation may be a problem with the rather robust capping in place.

[andyhb]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0355 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013      VALID 221200Z - 271200Z      ...DISCUSSION...   MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EXHIBIT RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY --LENDING   APPRECIABLE UNCERTAINTY-- ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING JET STREAK ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING   THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY /D4-D5/ PERIOD.  OF NOTE...THE ECMWF SHOWS A   FARTHER S SOLUTION IN THE PLACEMENT OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE OVER   TX/LA...WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY ADVANCING FARTHER N AS A   WARM FRONT.  THIS WOULD HAVE A SIZABLE IMPACT REGARDING THE SPATIAL   FOOTPRINT OF A DEVELOPING WARM/MOIST SECTOR.  NONETHELESS IT APPEARS   MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SEVERAL DAY RETURN FLOW INTO THE NWRN   GULF BASIN...WHICH WOULD SUPPLY A MORE MOISTURE-RICH LOW-LEVEL   AIRMASS INTO PORTIONS OF TX/OK AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAY 4 AND DAY   5...RESPECTIVELY.  ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DAY 6 FARTHER E OVER THE   DEEP SOUTH IS INHERENTLY MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT   DIFFERENCES.  DESPITE MORE FAVORABLE SIGNALS FOR SEVERE IN THE   EXTENDED PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES POSSIBLE AREAS   FROM BEING HIGHLIGHTED ATTM.      ..SMITH.. 03/19/2013

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to flip flop with the handling of the weekend strong cold front and embedded short waves moving inland along the Pacific NW Coast and dropping SE into the Plains. The general trend has been to slow the strong cold front down by about 12-18 hours, but much uncertainty remains in the eventual forecast. A slower progression may lend to slightly better rain chances as the dry line across West Texas moves E slower and longer fetch Gulf moisture return, but capping issues are still a big question mark. Additional Winter Storm RECON has been tasked from Anchorage for the next couple of days fly over the N Pacific/Gulf of Alaska to assist the computer models, so hopefully clarity can be gained be that additional data.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 22 2013 - 12Z TUE MAR 26 2013

...OVERVIEW...

THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY
FINALLY SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. THE VERY NEGATIVE AO WILL KEEP A WINTER-LIKE PATTERN OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE SOUTHWEST ENJOYS THE BENEFITS
OF UPPER RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS
PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROBUST SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST COAST BY ABOUT
MON/D6... BUT MUCH DISAGREEMENT REMAINS.

...MODEL/ENSEMBLE EVALUATION...

FOR SEVERAL DAYS THE STICKING POINT TO THE FORECAST LIED IN THE
WAY THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HANDLED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY DROPPING OUT
OF THE THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI-SAT/D3-4 AS IT
TURNS EASTWARD. THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN HAVE SUGGESTED A SUPPRESSED
POLAR FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. THE GEFS MEAN HAD BEEN FARTHER NORTH
WITH ITS POSITION SEVERAL DAYS AGO BUT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH IN RECENT
RUNS AND NOW LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS CONSISTENT... WITH THE
ECMWF BUT ESPECIALLY THE GFS GENERALLY TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER
AND FARTHER NW SFC LOW IN TANDEM... BUT MILES APART. THE 18Z GFS
AND 12Z UKMET TAKE THE MAIN SFC LOW INTO THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
BEFORE DEVELOPING ANOTHER COASTAL CYCLONE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY /MILLER TYPE B DEVELOPMENT/. GIVEN ONGOING WPC CONTINUITY
AND THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE
OPTED TO STAY NEAR THE ECMWF THINKING IN THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT
SAT/D4 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE NAEFS MEAN
ACTUALLY SHOWED A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS MEANS
WITH ITS DEEPER SFC PRESSURES. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE EAST SUN-MON/D5-6
AS SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BOMB THE SYSTEM INTO THE 980S /GEFS/ OR
EVEN THE 960S /ECENS/. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND NORTH OF THE POLAR FRONT... SPARING SOUTH
FLORIDA UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

 

IN THE WEST... ENSEMBLES SHOW POOR AGREEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WITH INCOMING ENERGY OVER THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EITHER OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS SO
HAD TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GEFS/ECENS WHICH WORKED OUT WELL
CONSIDERING A SIMILAR COMPROMISE IN THE EAST.

FRACASSO

 

 

 

[JoMo]

Looks like severe weather season starts sometime near or after April 1st. The 12z GFS long range looks very stormy for TX/OK. This is also the time when Jeff Piotrowski mentioned on Reed Timmer's podcast the other night and that Jeff is a tornado magnet. 

[Indystorm]

And I remember reading that someone  a couple months ago said that the Mar.31-April 2 timeframe would be prime for the Lezak Recurring Cycle. I'm a layperson and from what I've read this theory sounds specious but seems to be watched by some mets out there even if it is not scientifically verifiable as of yet.   I do remember marking these dates on my calendar to see if anything transpired.  Of course climate wise we are moving into the svr season so I don't know how much of this would be randomness. Yet continental drift was laughed at when it was first proposed in geology.

[Srain]

The overnight global ensemble mean do suggest a bit more suppressed storm track with a closed cold core low moving inland along the California Coast next weekend. As the blocking pattern relaxes and the NW Gulf opens up mid to late next week, there are indications that the time frame near April 1^st, +/- a day or two may well be the best chance for a severe episode for Texas/Oklahoma extending into the Central Plains.

[patrick7032]

Amarillo started talking up the end of the week/weekend into next week time frame this morning. SPC basically said the same.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX407 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: FOR YOU THUNDERSTORM FANS, A BIT MORE ACTIVE,SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A PSEUDO-DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. A SERIES OF WEAKUPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELYLEAK TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE WENT AHEADAND ADDED POPS FOR THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELYTO BE FOCUSED EAST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE. IT`S NOT OUT OF THEQUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS, BUT ITWILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GFSSUGGESTS A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF, WHICH WOULDLEAD TO HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MORE OF A THREAT FOR SEVERESTORMS. WE WILL COMMENT THAT THIS PATTERN HAS GIVEN OUR AREA SOMELOW-END SURPRISE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS IN THE PAST, SO WE`LL HAVE TOKEEP AN EYE ON IT.PEEKING BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD, IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCESFOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST WHEN A CLOSED UPPER LOWAPPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLYTHE FOLLOWING WEEK.

 

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0356 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013            ...DISCUSSION...   MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST   PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS   THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME   /MAR. 29-30/.  THIS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE   DEEP CONVECTION E OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.      RETREAT OF THE LOW THETA-E CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.   WILL REQUIRE THE APPROACH/DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL STORM   SYSTEM...THE NEXT OF WHICH REMAINS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE ERN   PACIFIC WHICH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN A MARCH INLAND DAY 8 /SUN. 3-31/   PER RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE   SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM E OF THE ROCKIES NOT EXPECTED TO   OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD...NO THREAT AREAS WILL BE   ISSUED THIS FORECAST.

[OKpowdah]

long range GFS looks putrid.

 

Any stats on January - March tornado numbers in the southern Plains? Big fat zero in both Oklahoma and Kansas so far.

[OKpowdah]

long range GFS looks putrid.

 

Any stats on January - March tornado numbers in the southern Plains? Big fat zero in both Oklahoma and Kansas so far.

 

It appears the last time this has occurred was in 2002

[brettjrob]

long range GFS looks putrid.

 

Any stats on January - March tornado numbers in the southern Plains? Big fat zero in both Oklahoma and Kansas so far.

 

Yeah, this is one of the nastiest sustained patterns I can recall from this time of year, with no end in sight. We need a fundamental pattern shift for a chance of anything decent. Hopefully that can happen by mid-April. Upside is that most severe setups in March and early April (though not all), even in decent patterns, prove to be overhyped duds. If the blocky pattern still looks firmly entrenched in 2-3 weeks, I'll start to worry.

 

Early-season tornadoes aside, it's pretty disappointing to watch the slow slide back toward short-term drought after that burst of hope in mid-late Feb. Models show an opportunity to alleviate that some this weekend, but we sure got burned on the last big drought-buster model scenario a few weeks back.