Central/Western Summer Medium/Long Range Discussions

[patrick7032]

Medium range models are coming into agreement that yet another closed low will move through the Southwest into TX next weekend. If this verifies, short-term drought should be all but eliminated for a good chunk of the southern Plains. The GFS has been spitting out obscene QPF, but even cutting it in half should put us in territory comparable to the last system. Now, let's just cross our fingers that the pattern is actually progressive and the low doesn't stall out to the west.

 

Moisture return is likely to be a limiting factor for any major severe weather, but if these kind of systems keep coming into April... oh my.

I don't think that'll be an issue. The ECMWF was showing moisture return beginning Thursday afternoon and GFS friday morning when I looked at the data at work yesterday. Using the GFS...LI's were around -5...SBCAPES ~1000...and 0-6km shear 40-50 kts. Lots of time to wait and see. Here's an exerpt from our AFD Friday...and although we haven't mentioned it since then...the thinking is still the same as of when I worked yesterday. Granted the models have diverged some since then...but both would give Texas a severe threat.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX336 PM CST FRI MAR 1 2013

 

THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXTUPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS INTERESTING...WITH THE MODELS IN ROUGHAGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH ALONG THEPACIFIC COASTAL REGION AND THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE MODELSTHEN MOVE THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TEXAS BY NEXTWEEKEND. THIS PORTENDS A GOOD CHANCE OF ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ANDPOSSIBLY A SPRING-LIKE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK INTO THE WEEKEND.CONSIDERING WE ARE STILL 7 DAYS OUT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHTCHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY.

[brettjrob]

Yes, the severe potential across central TX will have to be watched for Saturday. The consensus solution has turned more progressive since yesterday, with the GFS abandoning its stalled-out closed low scenario over TX/NM. Unfortunately, this would cut back significantly on QPF over the southern High Plains and Permian Basin. It's still quite likely that a widespread area of the Plains will receive significant rainfall, but it might be centered farther northeast and contain a less impressive maximum than earlier runs had us believing, as things stand.

[patrick7032]

Yes, the severe potential across central TX will have to be watched for Saturday. The consensus solution has turned more progressive since yesterday, with the GFS abandoning its stalled-out closed low scenario over TX/NM. Unfortunately, this would cut back significantly on QPF over the southern High Plains and Permian Basin. It's still quite likely that a widespread area of the Plains will receive significant rainfall, but it might be centered farther northeast and contain a less impressive maximum than earlier runs had us believing, as things stand.

Agreed. I've always been of the opinion...until it get's RAOB sampled...it's  guessing game. Our afternoon AFD pretty much sums it up (exerpt is below).

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX343 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

 

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAYTHROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNSBY WEDNESDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. WE WILL SEE MODERATINGTEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERTHROUGH THE PERIOD. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEKEND AS A POTENTUPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS.LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THETRACK OF THE UPPER   LOW WITH THE GFS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY TRACKACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF ACROSS KANSAS.OVERALL...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER THIS WEEKENDUNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW CAN BEDETERMINED. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCESACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WHILE A NORTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE BESTCHANCE OF RAINFALL TO NORTHERN SECTIONS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILLBE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELYFOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

[brettjrob]

The 04/00z ECMWF actually tries its best to give us a modest dryline setup around the 100th meridian in OK/TX for Saturday. Moisture is a limiting factor, but both the Euro and Canadian bring 50s dew points into the eastern TX Panhandle, possibly approaching 60 F deeper into TX, allowing for moderate instability (optimistically). Shear profiles look nice, at least on the Euro. The GFS is a lot more sheared out, ejecting one piece of energy while keeping another back in AZ, with less severe potential.

[baroclinic_instability]

The 04/00z ECMWF actually tries its best to give us a modest dryline setup around the 100th meridian in OK/TX for Saturday. Moisture is a limiting factor, but both the Euro and Canadian bring 50s dew points into the eastern TX Panhandle, possibly approaching 60 F deeper into TX, allowing for moderate instability (optimistically). Shear profiles look nice, at least on the Euro. The GFS is a lot more sheared out, ejecting one piece of energy while keeping another back in AZ, with less severe potential.

If anything, it is going to be another drought busting shellacking for portions of the Central/High Plains. What a change from last year. It has been a train of lee lows lately.

[andyhb]

I am getting a little weary of this Nor'easter followed by Western trough pattern, doesn't give a lot of opportunity for the warm sector to destabilize ahead of the latter, especially this time of year.

 

That said, I am perfectly willing to sacrifice now if it means more interesting things on the horizon for April to June. The drought relief should help in this aspect for sure.

[brettjrob]

I am getting a little weary of this Nor'easter followed by Western trough pattern, doesn't give a lot of opportunity for the warm sector to destabilize ahead of the latter, especially this time of year.

 

That said, I am perfectly willing to sacrifice now if it means more interesting things on the horizon for April to June. The drought relief should help in this aspect for sure.

 

It may be early March, but it's uncannily frustrating how many times this show has played out already in 2013. We really need the active STJ pattern to continue, but the tendency for every wave to amplify like mad near the east coast to die off. If we have similar-looking troughs in April but moisture is still hampered by eastern troughiness, I'm going to pull my hair out, especially after last year.

[brettjrob]

...and the Euro caves to the other globals with a progressive trough that fails to give the Plains drought a KO punch. As it stands, though, I like Saturday afternoon for the first low-end dryline chase setup of the year from SW KS into the eastern Panhandles and W OK.

[David Reimer]

...and the Euro caves to the other globals with a progressive trough that fails to give the Plains drought a KO punch. As it stands, though, I like Saturday afternoon for the first low-end dryline chase setup of the year from SW KS into the eastern Panhandles and W OK.

 

Agreed on the dryline chase setup. I've been watching it and am cautiously optimistic. 

[WxMidwest]

Been awhile since I've posted in this sub-forum! I spent some time looking at the long range forecast for spring to try to figure out how active a tornado season we could expect. The full discussion can be found here: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-seasonal-forecast/

If you don't feel like clicking the link for the actual forecast, here's a clip from the post:

Ah your figuring in the McCabe/Palecki stuff... Nice...

[patrick7032]

GFS still seems too fast with the low. Think the slower tracks of the EURO/NAM are closer to the truth...but as usual is a wait and see. The system coming ashore and getting sampled will obviously help. Below are some of the regional AFD exerpts. We don't have severe wording in our AFD but do have the possibility in the HWO. Norman and Amarillo have also put out graphic-casts for potenital severe weather on their pages.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX411 PM CST WED MAR 6 2013

 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERNCALIFORNIA TO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS UPPER LOWAPPROACHES, IT WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ANDLOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARSTO BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THEHIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS STILLDISAGREE ON EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY OUR AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. MOST OFTHE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ANDTHUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THE ECMWF STILL KEEPSRAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP UPPER LOWAND RECENT MOISTURE, WE THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE TOO DRY ACROSS MOST OFTHE AREA. THEREFORE, WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILLAPPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAYMORNING. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR EVENT WITH THE MAINHAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE, THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO, BUT CONFIDENCEIN THIS SCENARIO IS VERY LOW. IF A HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITYDEVELOPS, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY INCREASED DUETO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 75 KT.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX347 PM CST WED MAR 6 2013

 

INITIALLY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DRAW IMPROVING...THOUGHSTILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGHLATE WEEK. NWP DOES SUGGEST DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S MAYGRADUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINEPERHAPS TAKING SHAPE BY LATER IN THE DAY...AND SOME LOW CLOUDSPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFCTROUGH/DRYLINE...WHEN COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THEDEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY /PROGGED CAPE VALUES AOB 600J/KG/...COULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTEREDCONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF CI DOES OCCUR...INCREASINGSOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDESTRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /AOA 50 KTS/ WHICH IN TURN COULD BRING THETHREAT OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILLLIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS THE UATROUGH FURTHER APPROACHES...HEIGHTS FALL...AND A PACIFIC FRONT RACESTHROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD BE THETIME-FRAME WHEN THE CWA SEES THE BEST CHANCE OFTHUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THEN SPREADINGINTO THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY...AND HENCE HAVE RAISED POPSSLIGHTLY...WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THIS PERIOD. A FEWSTRONG/SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

[brettjrob]

At this rate, we'll be lucky to get measurable rain west of I-35 in the southern Plains. What a complete unraveling since the drought-busting cutoff low scenario of several days ago. Instead of the parched western sections of OK/TX getting dumped on all weekend, the consensus is now so progressive that we risk the dryline whizzing past I-35 before sunset Saturday.

It looks like the main problem is a northern stream shortwave that tries to phase, shearing apart the southern stream energy and giving us a junky, positive-tilt ejection from the Rockies. Since the energy is still offshore, maybe things will take a turn for the better tomorrow, but I'm sure not holding my breath. Barring a big change, it's rather amazing how poorly the ECMWF has performed relative to all its competition.

[ZackH]

I've been eyeing the cold core setup in northern KS/southern NE for Saturday, but I just can't get excited about it... even if it is Spring Break.  It would be fun to road trip with some good friends, but 12 hours is just way too far for a marginal cold core setup.  Still, CAPE has been flirting in the 500-750 J/kg range with LI values in the -3 to -5 range.  A little more moisture than progged, creating just a bit more instability, it becomes a little more interesting.  But as of now, I have a feeling it may just be a rainy mess with a few embedded weak thunderstorms around the low.  I'm still going to keep an eye on it, but I don't have much confidence.  The latest 12z NAM doesn't look good at all, as it is much quicker all of the sudden.  It will be interesting to see if this is a one run anomaly or an actual trend.  

 

That being said, Friday in the TX Panhandle is looking interesting, albeit marginal.  If I were a local, I'd think about heading out if there was nothing else much going on.

[brettjrob]

Agreed that tomorrow is looking like the more interesting of the two days, little as that's saying. The fact that good kinematics are now expected tomorrow afternoon is a testament to how drastically the whole trough evolution has changed on the modeling.

 

Current sfc obs raise a lot of questions about mid 50s dew points making a Caprock appearance before dark, as several models suggest. This was the main reason I was more excited (relatively speaking) for Saturday, since modest moisture would already be in place. *If* 53-55 F dew points make it to the Caprock and most CINH is eroded over a 2-3 county-wide zone east of the dryline, I wouldn't rule anything out.

[OKpowdah]

Agreed that tomorrow is looking like the more interesting of the two days, little as that's saying. The fact that good kinematics are now expected tomorrow afternoon is a testament to how drastically the whole trough evolution has changed on the modeling.

 

Current sfc obs raise a lot of questions about mid 50s dew points making a Caprock appearance before dark, as several models suggest. This was the main reason I was more excited (relatively speaking) for Saturday, since modest moisture would already be in place. *If* 53-55 F dew points make it to the Caprock and most CINH is eroded over a 2-3 county-wide zone east of the dryline, I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

It's not too encouraging when there are DPs in the 40's over the Gulf waters right now. 

 

[Srain]

Dew points are in the mid to upper 60's across the Central Gulf edging NW as the HP shifts E. Saturday just NW of the Balcones Escarpment may fair better than the Friday episode.

[ZackH]

12z NAM looking much more favorable for cold core severe weather near the NE/KS border... question is, is this realistic?

[brettjrob]

12z NAM looking much more favorable for cold core severe weather near the NE/KS border... question is, is this realistic?

 

Well, it hasn't backed off this evening, at least. I gave myself a quick refresher on Jon Davies' excellent conceptual model and case study from 10 April 2005, and found the 00z NAM matches the pattern quite well. I even drew up a cheesy MS Paint graphic (NAM valid at 21z):

One of the few nice things about chasing cold core is the relatively straightforward target. Pending further changes in the low track overnight, I'd say 40 miles either side of a Phillipsburg-Holdredge line looks like a no-brainer.

I'm still a bit concerned with moisture. The 00z 4 km NAM nest mixes dew points into the mid-upper 40s over most of the target area by mid-afternoon, which scares me. Cold core is such a touchy phenomenon, and it's usually impossible to know whether to expect boom or bust even as you're making the long, early haul to the target. Perhaps that's why I almost never chase them.

Have you made a decision yet? I'm seriously tempted, but between an upcoming test and the 7:30-8am departure time to be safe, I'll probably back out as I usually do with CC. Frustrating how climo seems to favor N KS and NE so strongly with such setups.

[ZackH]

I made the decision to stick home... The 8-11 hour drive was just too far to convince some of my other people for a cold core setup, and frankly I am kind of glad I'm staying now... I've had an exhausting week.  I, too, was reading Davies paper to get pumped up.  However, even with the uptake in instability, I didn't like how the low level shear has been evolving over the past few runs.  

[brettjrob]

I made the decision to stick home... The 8-11 hour drive was just too far to convince some of my other people for a cold core setup, and frankly I am kind of glad I'm staying now... I've had an exhausting week.  I, too, was reading Davies paper to get pumped up.  However, even with the uptake in instability, I didn't like how the low level shear has been evolving over the past few runs.  

 

I hear you there, although oftentimes ambient vertical vorticity near the sfc low can work its magic in CC even without conventional hodographs. Really a crapshoot until the event is already going down, and one I'm not willing to take, either.

Taking a closer look at the 4 km NAM nest shows an intriguing, if unlikely, scenario that would make me happy. A lone supercell initiates on a DL bulge SW of ICT late in the afternoon and tracks toward the I-135 corridor, with decent updraft helicity values for several hours. I can recall a few instances of cold-core setups where the real show ends up being in a "semi-CC" regime just SE of the sfc low. The 8 Mar 2010 beast that struck Hammon, OK, is probably the most high-profile and extreme example, although I think some of the better tornadoes in the Apr 2005 event Davies studied were also in a similar region. Of course, for every one of those cases, there are probably 9 others superficially similar that yield nothing. At least this gives me an excuse to sleep in a bit, and if initiation in C KS looks unlikely by lunchtime, I'll have more watching radar compulsively study time.

[ZackH]

Lol on the "study time." I too was wondering if the ambient VV around the low would be enough to offset the less than ideal low level wind fields in the areas of greater instability. That's typically not something that's going to be picked up on well in the models. That being said I am also worried about convective debris. 12z NAM had a nice mid level dry punch to help clear some junk out early but the 00z stuff looks pretty overcast. You may be onto something a little further south. If there can be breaks and more instability realized you may see better dynamics there.

[patrick7032]

Looking at the data...I wonder if the models are too fast again with the dryline and 500mb low. At 12:40 AM CST the dryline was still west of a Pecos, TX. to Hobbs, NM line. Also when looking at soundings (once SPC moved the risk back and the dryline was further west I dove into some soundings)...It looks like the wf may be somewhere between DFW and Gainsville, TX. north of Dento...and slowly moving north. Hodos were markedly enlarged once east of a Wichita Falls to Brownwood line (Texas)...and esp for Stephensville (through 3pm)...and DFW/Gainsville (through sunset). Below are a couple soundings for DFW. Notice the inversion mixes out.

[patrick7032]

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER

AIR...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 09/12Z ACROSS PARTS OF

THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MUCH OF

CENTRAL KANSAS...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE

MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME

HEATING THEN APPEARS PROBABLE ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS

PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE PARTS OF THE

EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL

FLOW MAINTAINS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS

ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. GUIDANCE INDICATES AT

LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK AFTERNOON

HEATING...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THIS

APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW ADVANCING

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY

PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON STORM INITIATION...INCLUDING A FEW

SUPERCELLS....AND PERHAPS AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST

ACTIVITY. TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS

INDICATE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /40-50+ KT/ WILL TEND TO

DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER

DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. BUT THEY ARE SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST

SOME OVERLAP OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE

CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO

SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY BE

MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

[patrick7032]

Nice SigTor forecast.

[andyhb]

That's a pretty nice sounding there for FWD at 03z, 1250+ J/kg of CAPE with almost 150 in the 0-3 km layer, weak CIN and almost 200 m2/s2 SRH.

[patrick7032]

Wow...a 75 SigTor...NICE.

[radarman]

Watch Issued for DFW:

 

 

WWUS40 KWNS 091949WWP9SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0049NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0149 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013WS 0049PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        :  20%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES         :  10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  40%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  30%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  20%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  20%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS :  70%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.0MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 450MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : NO&&FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH ANDWATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.$$

 

I am excited because this is the first spring season event that we have a CASA radar operating in the metroplex.  

[andyhb]

5% tornado was added for the cold core threat as well.

[Ed Lizard]

Oh, this may be a good thread to do a copy and paste job...

 

 

 

Away from internet for a while.

 

Cell in (I think) Jack County, severe warned.  I think it is surface based, and from a distance on FWD doppler, may have some rotation.   MWL may have a bit too much of a T/Td difference for tornadoes.  Temps not *that* warm, But Td's may be a shade too low...

 

I don't know a closer airport code off the top of my head.

[brettjrob]

So, the cold core was a big bust. I noticed this morning the surface cyclone wasn't quite as wrapped up as I'd like to see for that setup. Normally the DL arcs back to the triple point in a zonal fashion; thus, the meridional flow aloft is normal to the initiating boundary, carrying minisupercells quickly to the warm front. As of late this morning, the DL instead extended SSW from the triple point, with very little arcing back. Worse yet, the "warm front" was really just an extension of the cold front, as it continually pushed south through the afternoon. Cold core just isn't worth the gamble unless you live in the general area.

Obviously, my fantasy scenario of isolated sups toward the northern end of the DL (closer to the cold temps aloft) didn't materialize, so I made a quick trip to N TX. Models this morning indicated some backing of the LLJ by late afternoon in that area, particularly the NAM. Unfortunately, storms appeared continually undercut, and supercells would get absorbed into the line a county or two west of I-35 (where LL shear looked better). Saw some quarters followed by nice hail fog, but that's about it. The best storms of the day, no doubt, were along I-10 NW of SAT this evening. A few TOR warnings, but no reports thus far.

The road ahead looks like a long stretch of boring, but there's hope that the Gulf won't get wiped again for awhile after tomorrow. Maybe by the last 10 days of the month we'll see another trough with better moisture.