1900hurricane Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Pattern recognition suggests that Texas could get a pretty good dose of rainfall starting later next week and the WPC seems to recognize this as well. Many if not most of the summer Texas rainfall events have featured the look progged for next week of the weakness/upper low wedged in the col between subtropical ridges. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1146 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014VALID 12Z TUE JUN 24 2014 - 12Z SAT JUN 28 2014AVOIDED THE GFS AND GEFS PRODUCTS THIS PERIOD DUE TO THEIREXTREME-OUTLIER STATUS WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THEPACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE ECMWF AND ECENS MEANS SHARE MUCH MOREIN COMMON WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS AND FIT CONTINUITY ANDCLIMATOLOGY. THE 00Z/21 OPERATIONAL ECMWF WAS ON THE AGGRESSIVESIDE WITH THE PUSH OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST, SO RELIED ON THEECENS MEAN. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WET ACROSS THENATION--SAVE THE SOUTHWEST--WITH THE POLAR FRONT STILL IN PLAY. ARICH TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO THERAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE UNITED STATESSOUTHERN PLAINS.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Naturally, I'm hoping for something closer to the op GFS and ECMWF solutions this morning, even if they are currently outliers among the ensembles. Both indicate significant severe potential over much of the High Plains by late next week into the weekend -- easily the latest I've ever seen a tough like this, even in model land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 00z GFS basically reminds me of the late April pattern shifted north. 00z Euro is pretty much a mess, with the lead wave getting stuck in the SW. It looks awfully blocky though, perhaps overly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Potent severe weather look showing up on the 12z Euro/GFS for this Friday and Saturday. Previous runs had backed off on amplification, but the 12z guidance shows a powerful s/w trough ejecting across the N Plains with ample instability available for a substantial severe wx threat. Edit: Possibly beyond as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I'm a pessimist about this setup so far. Looking in the Northern Plains, sure there's a ton of CAPE but you're either battling with bad low-level shear or no upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I'm a pessimist about this setup so far. Looking in the Northern Plains, sure there's a ton of CAPE but you're either battling with bad low-level shear or no upper level support. The problem looking at the 00z GFS for 120 hrs appears to be the s/w ridging aloft which serves to back the upper level winds strongly in association with the negatively tilted trough moving through the northern/central Plains. Also, the upper trough is a lot sharper this run than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The problem looking at the 00z GFS for 120 hrs appears to be the s/w ridging aloft which serves to back the upper level winds strongly in association with the negatively tilted trough moving through the northern/central Plains. Also, the upper trough is a lot sharper this run than previously. Funny how things work sometimes. In a broad sense, troughing over New England with upstream ridging over the Midwest is what severely capped the Plains potential with the April 26-29 system, and it looks to be biting us again. Granted, the ensembles never really supported a big event this week, and climo strongly disfavored the briefly-indicated solution that brought substantial deep-layer shear well into the southern Plains. There's still the possibility for some localized mischief centered around NE this weekend, but sufficient deep-layer shear largely lags behind the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Funny how things work sometimes. In a broad sense, troughing over New England with upstream ridging over the Midwest is what severely capped the Plains potential with the April 26-29 system, and it looks to be biting us again. Granted, the ensembles never really supported a big event this week, and climo strongly disfavored the briefly-indicated solution that brought substantial deep-layer shear well into the southern Plains. There's still the possibility for some localized mischief centered around NE this weekend, but sufficient deep-layer shear largely lags behind the warm sector. The ensembles never really supported a big event for 6/16-6/18 either (and it still ended up being isolated, yet it turned very impressive obviously). If anything, the trough on the Saturday before (6/14) was the more synoptically evident potential. I think the Southern Plains idea was pretty farfetched in the first place. Solutions have also been variable in what happens after this lead trough ejection. As always this time of year, it only takes one well timed shortwave to initiate a show. I suppose we can't ask much after we just witnessed the best 3 day chasing stretch in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 If you believe the NAM, it's suggesting a surface low on the SD/ND border with a warm front draped over central MN on Friday afternoon. EHI values get pretty high in this frontal region near the Brainerd lakes area with little capping and high CAPE. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=18|NAM|US|con|scp|75|45.9,-94.99|false# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 If you believe the NAM, it's suggesting a surface low on the SD/ND border with a warm front draped over central MN on Friday afternoon. EHI values get pretty high in this frontal region near the Brainerd lakes area with little capping and high CAPE. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=18|NAM|US|con|scp|75|45.9,-94.99|false# Upper level wind profiles looks pretty anemic if you believe that. Keep in mind this model has been awful all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Upper level wind profiles looks pretty anemic if you believe that. Keep in mind this model has been awful all year. It's like the most impressive thing so far this weekend but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 It's like the most impressive thing so far this weekend but that's not saying much. What the 18z GFS was showing on Sunday was more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I tend to think the NAM is too fast regarding Friday/Saturday for the Dakotas/MN threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I took a look at some of the CIPS analogs for Sunday and some decent days are showing up. A few days with some long track tornadoes, but the most intriguing one is obviously 6/17/10 which was my first chase. 5/30/04 was on the 00z analogs last night. I don't put too much stock into it, but it is always interesting to see what pops up on the lists. The day before Barneveld was the #2 analog last night in the Plains region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 I took a look at some of the CIPS analogs for Sunday and some decent days are showing up. A few days with some long track tornadoes, but the most intriguing one is obviously 6/17/10 which was my first chase. 5/30/04 was on the 00z analogs last night. I don't put too much stock into it, but it is always interesting to see what pops up on the lists. Euro looks good for Sunday in the eastern Dakotas and western MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Don't want to start a thread yet......but are you kidding me??? Just South of MSP Hot link so it will change. EHI of 13.4??? Off the 06/26 0Z run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 There already is another thread... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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