HM Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Big MJO wave has formed over the IO and will cross into the western hemisphere in the extended range... last time we had a crossing like this was in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 And there remains the big question. 500 mb heights remain well in excess of 588 dam out ahead of the trough on the model run, so that monster trough very well could get stuck so to speak out in the west. Ten days out is forever in the meteorological world, but against my better judgement, this model run has me salivating. One thing to note is how the ridge axis is tilted SW to NE, it's not as stifling of a block as it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 00z Euro/EPS appears to be coming in with a pretty decent look for an extended severe weather episode in mid June with a progressive, strong Pacific jet, the 588 dm ridge getting pushed southward into Mexico, and a series of s/w troughs rotating through the flow with persistent troughing in the Gulf of Alaska. This would match pretty well with what HM was pointing out about the MJO going through a similar position/intensity that it was in April, although one might expect that the bigger things may wait until a bit later in the month like what happened in April when the following strong wave passed through the tropics... The majority of the dynamical MJO forecasts indicate it rotating out of the circle of death somewhere in the phase 4-5 range with more emphasis on phase 4. Corresponding temperatures/precip composites for MJJ in phases 4-5 (and also phase 6) generally indicate western troughing/cool departures and downstream warmth/increased precip across the central/eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 132 hr 12z Euro has SD tornado event written all over it for Friday 6/13. And that is just a monster ULL coming in at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 132 hr 12z Euro has SD tornado event written all over it for Friday 6/13. The picture at h5 doesn't look all that different than the GFS. Heights slightly higher to the south on the GFS, and slightly lower to the north on the Euro, but overall they two seem to be in pretty good agreement on the large-scale pattern. Is the only difference with the Euro the broad warm sector, then? Because the GFS doesn't scream outbreak to me, with the LLJ being almost entirely dislocated with the axis of instability, which on the GFS cuts off near the Missouri River in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 The picture at h5 doesn't look all that different than the GFS. Heights slightly higher to the south on the GFS, and slightly lower to the north on the Euro, but overall they two seem to be in pretty good agreement on the large-scale pattern. Is the only difference with the Euro the broad warm sector, then? Because the GFS doesn't scream outbreak to me, with the LLJ being almost entirely dislocated with the axis of instability, which on the GFS cuts off near the Missouri River in SD. The Euro is relatively similar. The LLJ is entirely E of the river, while the instability axis extends maybe a couple counties into that territory. Taken literally, there is a QPF signal over NE SD within the relatively narrow overlap. But regardless, Friday looks like a less-than-ideal setup from the perspective of ingredients overlapping. Now, to get back to what this thread has been about from the beginning: whining about 2014 . It's pretty amazing that the past week has failed to produce any substantial, visible tornadoes, other than the pure-upslope early-day Trinidad cone on Friday. We finally get a favorable pattern for multi-day severe with adequate shear/moisture and still get skunked, for the most part. No single day's setup has been amazing, but these are the stretches you almost always get a few really good localized events (read: significant tornadic supercells) out of. We've really seen it all this year: horrific pattern early on, a slew of potent but mis-timed systems in the middle, and now a relatively active pattern late that just isn't working out on the mesoscale/storm scale at all. Skepticism really has to be the default for any of these days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 The Euro is relatively similar. The LLJ is entirely E of the river, while the instability axis extends maybe a couple counties into that territory. Taken literally, there is a QPF signal over NE SD within the relatively narrow overlap. But regardless, Friday looks like a less-than-ideal setup from the perspective of ingredients overlapping. Now, to get back to what this thread has been about from the beginning: whining about 2014 . It's pretty amazing that the past week has failed to produce any substantial, visible tornadoes, other than the pure-upslope early-day Trinidad cone on Friday. We finally get a favorable pattern for multi-day severe with adequate shear/moisture and still get skunked, for the most part. No single day's setup has been amazing, but these are the stretches you almost always get a few really good localized events (read: significant tornadic supercells) out of. We've really seen it all this year: horrific pattern early on, a slew of potent but mis-timed systems in the middle, and now a relatively active pattern late that just isn't working out on the mesoscale/storm scale at all. Skepticism really has to be the default for any of these days coming up. I think we should just go to pessimism. I hope the Minnesota severe weather season picks up soon. Sure, I've had some good lightning and a few shelf clouds, but I want some legit storms. Those few cells that formed just west of the Twin Cities on Friday were a nice surprise however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 The Euro is relatively similar. The LLJ is entirely E of the river, while the instability axis extends maybe a couple counties into that territory. Taken literally, there is a QPF signal over NE SD within the relatively narrow overlap. But regardless, Friday looks like a less-than-ideal setup from the perspective of ingredients overlapping. Well at least it's a dryline setup rather than WF nonsense. The overlap is sufficient enough for now on the Euro, and this is still >5 days out. At least the drought areas are getting a bunch of rain for next year...right? I think we should just go to pessimism. I hope the Minnesota severe weather season picks up soon. Sure, I've had some good lightning and a few shelf clouds, but I want some legit storms. Those few cells that formed just west of the Twin Cities on Friday were a nice surprise however. Lol, that happened a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 At least the drought areas are getting a bunch of rain for next year...right? I can go to the equator and start throwing ice cubes in the Pacific for next year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Saturday has some (conditional) potential up here based on the 6z GFS. Dynamics were better on the 0z but the warm sector was way too narrow. 6z expanded it to cover the eastern half of the Dakotas and a good chunk of western Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 I'm liking the hodos for western MN on Saturday. I will definitely be out chasing if the models keep this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 My main interest lies with what comes after that, with the majority of model guidance favouring a large and extremely moist/unstable air mass being advected into the central US ahead of the next developing trough. The 00z Euro/EPS indicated something that would likely have the potential to be quite a significant severe event, and the 12z GGEM was along these lines as well. Truncation stops the GFS from being more impressive, but this is a volatile looking pattern and one that is consistent with a number of the big June events over the past however many years. It's notable that the lead trough towards the end of this week is key in setting up what comes behind, as it suppresses the ridge and allows for the jet streak dropping through the NW to slide in behind relatively unabated. it also acts as a moisture pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 My main interest lies with what comes after that, with the majority of model guidance favouring a large and extremely moist/unstable air mass being advected into the central US ahead of the next developing trough. The 00z Euro/EPS indicated something that would likely have the potential to be quite a significant severe event, and the 12z GGEM was along these lines as well. Truncation stops the GFS from being more impressive, but this is a volatile looking pattern and one that is consistent with a number of the big June events over the past however many years. Its notable that the lead trough towards the end of this week is key in setting up what comes behind, as it suppresses the ridge and allows for the jet streak dropping through the NW to slide in behind relatively unabated. it also acts as a moisture pump. Which time period are you looking at specifically? On the 12z GGEM it looks like the same longwave trough parks over the Rockies from roughly Fri-Tue, with perhaps several opportunities for severe as shortwaves rotate through. Skeptical as I am about everything this year, I admit its depiction for next Monday is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Generally on the 00z Euro, it was the 168-216 hr period (i.e. Sunday 6/15 to Tues 6/17). Note that we are again falling right in the time range with some recent, big June events. The important part is getting that second piece of energy that drops out of the Gulf of Alaska region to drop into an established western troughing regime. Edit: 12z Euro looks like its going in a similar direction, that is a huge longwave trough at 144. I'm not even that concerned about what it shows after, a synoptic setup like that in June will lead to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 The overall synoptic evolution the 00z Euro is showing at 144 hrs is absolutely amazing (and with deep moisture return from not just the Gulf, not just the Caribbean, but the tropical Atlantic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Saturday, 14 June, looks quite interesting on the 12Z ECMWF…details are still to be narrowed down but at least part of the region (IA / MO) looks to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Saturday, 14 June, looks quite interesting on the 12Z ECMWF…details are still to be narrowed down but at least part of the region (IA / MO) looks to be in the game. There's barely any instability that far east on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Sat-Mon all have a relatively impressive combo of kinematics and thermodynamics near the dryline and triple point, and more importantly, perhaps the first time all year with adequate moisture for decent LCLs on a widespread basis. Unfortunately, the cap looks like a big problem Saturday, and convection anywhere besides the cold front Sun-Mon looks iffy too. Needless to say, this is probably the last real opportunity S of the KS/NE line for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Sat-Mon all have a relatively impressive combo of kinematics and thermodynamics near the dryline and triple point, and more importantly, perhaps the first time all year with adequate moisture for decent LCLs on a widespread basis. Unfortunately, the cap looks like a big problem Saturday, and convection anywhere besides the cold front Sun-Mon looks iffy too. Needless to say, this is probably the last real opportunity S of the KS/NE line for the season. I'm still liking where the Euro/GGEM (i.e. not the GFS with its awful run to run continuity) are going with that second system, might be worth the drive to head up north if it ejects there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 These high CAPE/enough shear does always seem to yield one or two slowing moving beasts somewhere. Several GFS runs now progging 5000-6000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 70-75 dews Sun-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I know there are more important things to focus on at the moment but I wanted to show the June precipitation departures for the month so far. I think the state of the stratospheric winds, SST and building Nino signaled this potential... Also, the recent AO dip and AAM spike with forcing moving into W-C Pacific has created a nice uptick in severe weather. However, it may be getting too late in the season to make those kinds of connections. We'll see... needs further post-analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Thursday is still Day 4 as I type on Monday; so, will put it in this thread. Plus I don't want to disrupt the short-term Monday disco. Vigorous short-wave ejects through Upper Midwest on Thursday. GFS now in agreement with slower Euro. Potential Too Low? Not now SPC! Deep and thick moisture will be in place with shortwaves all week pulling it up from the south. Stationary front will be in place with morning rain and outflow boundaries. LLJ will be moderate; there is some question about whether it intensifies in the evening. Great turning is progged from surface to about 500 mb with an excellent speed max coming out at 500. Jet stream level winds are a little light at 300/200; and, slight veer back is noted from 500 up to 200. Regardless of some minor issues, VB and the LLJ, instability and turning will overall be very good Thursday. I'll reserve excellent for if one of the two problems resolves itself. I'd absolutely have a 30% Day 4 out! While I'm splitting hairs on percents, yeah today/Monday needs a 15% TOR around Sioux City. Perhaps it may not matter to us, who make our own decisions, or the public; but, emergency managers could use the stronger chart. Picture is worth a thousand sig tor words. Rant done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Thursday is still Day 4 as I type on Monday; so, will put it in this thread. Plus I don't want to disrupt the short-term Monday disco. Vigorous short-wave ejects through Upper Midwest on Thursday. GFS now in agreement with slower Euro. Potential Too Low? Not now SPC! Deep and thick moisture will be in place with shortwaves all week pulling it up from the south. Stationary front will be in place with morning rain and outflow boundaries. LLJ will be moderate; there is some question about whether it intensifies in the evening. Great turning is progged from surface to about 500 mb with an excellent speed max coming out at 500. Jet stream level winds are a little light at 300/200; and, slight veer back is noted from 500 up to 200. Regardless of some minor issues, VB and the LLJ, instability and turning will overall be very good Thursday. I'll reserve excellent for if one of the two problems resolves itself. I'd absolutely have a 30% Day 4 out! While I'm splitting hairs on percents, yeah today/Monday needs a 15% TOR around Sioux City. Perhaps it may not matter to us, who make our own decisions, or the public; but, emergency managers could use the stronger chart. Picture is worth a thousand sig tor words. Rant done! Well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looking forward a bit, the Euro appears to be showing another extensive/anomalously strong North Pacific jet developing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 12Z ECMWF certainly raised an eyebrow here too. The lack of a modeled death ridge is also something worth pointing out. If a trough were to drop out of that without a death ridge to mess with ejection AND late June thermodynamics to play with, I would be very curious to see the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ The angle isn't as impressive, but this is still remarkable in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Stepping away from severe weather for a moment, guidance (particularly the ECMWF) is beginning to hint at a pretty noteworthy weakness developing between subtropical ridges over Texas next week. Can't really say too much more than that at this point, but it is worth noting that many of the significant summertime heavy rain event in Texas have featured similar looks, such as June 2007 and July 2002. At the very least, it looks like it could be a nice rainfall look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 The period around 6/27-6/29 is starting to gain my interest. Details will have plenty of time to work themselves out, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on. Others have already pointed out that time frame by showing the jet moving in, and I would imagine if that comes to fruition then some interesting things could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 The period around 6/27-6/29 is starting to gain my interest. Details will have plenty of time to work themselves out, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on. Others have already pointed out that time frame by showing the jet moving in, and I would imagine if that comes to fruition then some interesting things could happen. I think it's becoming more a question of how much amplification takes place within the western troughing regime rather than if the jet streak will exist or not. If amplification takes place to a slightly greater extent than the 12z Euro depicts, some very impressive potential begins to come onto the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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